Summary of Best Bets:
Best bet: Race 2 No.8 Ramasis
Value: Race 6 No.4 Talisay
Next best: Race 7 No.4 Streetcar Apollo
Race 8 No.9 Nextonixs
Turf Talk:
- Rain is forecast for Friday and Saturday, depending on the amount that falls will dictate the track conditions, expecting to work on a wet track such as a Soft 7/Heavy 8
- The rail is slightly out here and will be +3m entire
- The Parks track can play fairer when wet as the inside lanes will likely be inferior in wet conditions
Key Stats:
- Andrew Gluyas’ team has found good form of late and brings 5 runners to this meeting as well as taking a runner across to Flemington. In his last 100 runners he has had 21 winners at a POT of +17.5%
- Caitlin Jones has 6 rides here and continues to be profitable. She has ridden 17 winners from her last 100 rides at a POT of+44.3%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Competitive 2YO race kicks off the program. Only the one runner has race experience in the field, so trial form is important here.
(2) Super Wonder won a recent trial easily here at Morphettville, looks ready for a big debut and jumping from barrier 3 should give him a soft run.
The Stokes team have had a good recent record with their 2YOs and debut another here in (4) Chica Astuta who brings Victorian jump-out form and won a trial at Pakenham recently.
(1) Cyclotron comes across from Victoria having shown improvement in his last jump-out, jumping out from barrier 2 should see him land in a strong position.
(3) Farnace needs to improve on her last start performance to be a winning chance but is the only runner in the field with race day experience which could be her advantage.
Selections:
(2) Super Wonder
(4) Chica Astuta
(1) Cyclotron
(3) Farnace
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2:
(8) Ramasis ran a close 2nd on debut after a strong set of trials and feel he should take great benefit out of that debut run having been slightly green in the straight which may have cost him. He can find a level of improvement from that debut run and sets up well for this.
(13) Sicilian Princess has been hard for punters to catch but is consistent and has competed in stronger Maidens, she maps well and has a light weight here so can go close again.
(6) Jumbo Jet makes his debut today and looked solid in a recent trial, expect he can put in a strong showing on debut.
(7) No Bail was solid when placing on debut in a good level Maiden at Strathalbyn, he can take improvement from that run but may need luck from the wide barrier
Selections:
(8) Ramasis
(13) Sicilian Princess
(6) Jumbo Jet
(7) No Bail
Suggested Bet: (8) Ramasis WIN
Race 3:
(1) Mostly For Show rates highly in this field, a rise in distance should suit him but the query on his chances is how this track is playing as he likely gets back in the field, should be hitting the line strongly but needs an even track.
(2) Bootlegger comes out of the same last start race as Mostly For Show, which reads as a good form reference for a race of this level, and can improve on last start if he settles closer in the run.
(4) Dirty Old Town is in super form having won her last 2 starts, she drops back in distance for this but does get a more favourable map from an inside barrier than what she has had in her last 2 runs.
(3) Freedom Flame should be fitter in this 2nd up now and rising in distance. Her 1st up run where she finished midfield was a strong race so expecting improvement.
Selections:
(1) Mostly For Show
(2) Bootlegger
(4) Dirty Old Town
(3) Freedom Flame
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4:
(5) Magarten looks likely to appreciate a rise in distance having hit the line well last start. He was disappointing in his last start but looks a strong chance to improve in a race that may be more suitable today.
(6) Andrew’s Memory is in super form having won 2 of his last 3 starts, he rises in distance for this but gets in light at the weights and maps well from barrier 5 which should see him settle in a prominent position.
(4) Longer Route was an easier winner in his last start and is stepping up in distance for this today. Scratchings out of the race help his case now as he maps for an easy time out in front.
(7) Wild Winner steps up in distance again having showed form at staying trips earlier in the prep, this is a drop in grade which may help her improve.
Selections:
(5) Magarten
(6) Andrew’s Memory
(4) Longer Route
(7) Wild Winner
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5:
(1) Autumn Frost appears to set up well here from a race map perspective. The race looks likely to have a moderate tempo so he should land in an ideal position on speed from barrier 3. He looks likely to get a soft run and will be suited on soft ground if the rain is around.
(3) Round Two can overrace sometimes and be costly but he showed improvement last start and now rises to a distance he has been consistent at previously, gets every chance to improve again.
(2) Big Brute ran a close 3rd in a similar race to this last start; he can race on speed, which may suit in a moderate race, but will have to cross from a wider barrier to find a position early.
(7) Never Surrender ran well in a similar race last time out, he is 3rd up into this prep now and can be at peak fitness at this point now and be an improver.
Selections:
(1) Autumn Frost
(3) Round Two
(2) Big Brute
(7) Never Surrender
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6:
(4) Talisay resumes here today, her better form does come over further distances, but she does have a very good record 1st up (4:2-0-1) and was a winner 1st up over the 1500m last prep, she should also be suited in wet conditions so may surprise at odds.
(2) Scandalize is at peak fitness 3rd up now and rising to the 1400m trip, he maps for a soft run on speed from barrier 1 which could prove to be an advantage at this track.
(3) Annihilate ran a close 3rd last start and drops in grade for this today. He must rise in weight for this but maps for a softer run.
(1) Stokomo chased well for 2nd behind an in form runner in his last start, looks suited slightly up in distance again and should handle wet conditions.
Selections:
(4) Talisay
(2) Scandalize
(3) Annihilate
(1) Stokomo
Suggested Bet: (4) Talisay EW
Race 7:
(4) Streetcar Apollo is in super form having won 2 in a row including a strong showing to hold on at this track/distance last time. If he gets a soft run on speed he could be hard to reel in again.
(6) Placo sets up to be an improver 2nd up and rising in distance, he had a heavy weight 1st up and gets in lighter here which will suit.
(1) Watadeel resumes down in grade here today, he rates highly but has a huge weight due to that fact. If he can handle the weight, he does boast a strong record at this track.
If the track is wet, it may suit the resuming (5) Exalted Fire. He usually takes a few runs to find his best form but in suitable conditions may surprise.
Selections:
(4) Streetcar Apollo
(6) Placo
(1) Watadeel
(5) Exalted Fire
Suggested Bet: (4) Streetcar Apollo WIN
Race 8:
(9) Nextonixs was well supported 1st up but found some bad luck when settling further back than expected, if she can settle closer today from barrier 1, she should get a better chance and fitter now 2nd up at a track/distance set up she has a good record overall will suit.
(2) Mintulee is a last start winner and boasts a good record at this track/distance set up. Expect she will look to push forwards again from the wide barrier.
(6) Daisydoo got a deserved win after a string of placings in her last start, she is in good form and can handle a step up in grade now. Has had success in all conditions so won’t be concerned with a wet track.
(10) Nicish resumes here today, may not be at her best early in the prep over the 1000m but she was consistent last prep and was solid in a recent trial.
Selections:
(9) Nextonixs
(2) Mintulee
(6) Daisydoo
(10) Nicish
Suggested Bet: (9) Nextonixs WIN
Race 9:
(5) Sharendipity contested a stronger race when resuming and will drop down in level for this race today. Suited down in grade and she has a good 2nd up record (3:2-0-0) she just needs an even track to help handle the wide barrier.
(8) Effusiv ran 2nd in a similar race to this last start, she was drawn out wide last time so can get a better run here jumping from barrier 3.
(10) Shadowfax drops in grade for this today, which will likely suit, he can race on speed which should also suit here at this track as this race looks likely to be run at a moderate tempo.
(1) Shadow Eagle looks likely to be an improver dropping in grade for this today, he has a consistent record at this track so looks an each way chance if the rain comes and the track is wet.
Selections:
(5) Sharendipity
(8) Effusiv
(10) Shadowfax
(1) Shadow Eagle
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 10:
Tough race to finish on as conditions may play a big part in some of the chances of these runners. If the track is wet, it may best set up for (3) Katim’s Club who is proven in wet conditions and showed improvement to place at this track/distance last start.
(2) Crespiano resumed a winner and looks a type ready to rise in distance, he can race on speed, which may suit, but needs to cross early from a wide barrier.
(10) Rousing Refrain just couldn’t get the win late in his last start when going around with a big weight. He drops 3kgs for this today which could help him late in the run.
(12) Bargain Boy hasn’t had much luck from the barriers in his last couple of starts, maps much better here today from the inside and if the track is favouring speed he may be in the ideal position.
Selections:
(3) Katim’s Club
(2) Crespiano
(10) Rousing Refrain
(12) Bargain Boy
Suggested Bet: No Bet
