Summary of best bets
- Best Bet: R4 (1) Sir Now
- Next Best: R6 (5) Undisputable
- Best Value: R2 (7) Placo
- Best Roughie: R7(1) Nasho
Track
- The track looks likely to be a Soft 6/7 given overcast conditions are expected but little rain so it should be no worse than a 7.
- The rail pushes out in one section from the previous meeting and will be +6m 1000m-W/Post & +3m the remainder.
- In wet conditions at this track last time, it did play quite fairly with runners being able to make up ground in the straight and majority of the winners came from lanes 2-5 (7 total). Expect a similar set up today.
Stats
- Teo Nugent pops across the border from Victoria to jump on the favourite in the feature and has been riding in super form. 14 winners from his last 100 rides and returning a POT of +33.8%.
- Luke O’Connor’s small team continues to perform strongly and has been good for punters of late. His stable has produced 17 winners from his last 100 runners and returned a big POT of +60.1%.
Race 1
(3) Pierroplane put in a huge effort to run a close 2nd behind the in-form Orlova last weekend and is on the quick back up here. This is potentially easier so he looks suited in this grade, he is drawn out wide which is the risk but he has good early speed and can cross. (2) Wind Rush is another runner who looks suited dropping in grade from last week after running a close 3rd, sets up well in dryer conditions today. (7) Empire Grace has been moderate in runs this prep but could be a chance to turn that around in this set up today, down slightly in grade and gets in with a light weight after a handy apprentice claim, can get a soft run from barrier 1. (9) Affaire Vue is taking a step up in grade for this today but maps to be positive in the run which could give her a chance in these conditions.
Selections
(3) Pierroplane
(2) Wind Rush
(7) Empire Grace
(9) Affaire Vue
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(7) Placo ran in 3rd behind (5) Mystic Wonder last start but has a few things in his favour today that give him the chance to turn the tables. Improving conditions should suit and he maps for a softer run on speed jumping from a lower barrier so expect he will be stronger late in the run. (5) Mystic Wonder looks a winning chance again in a similar set up to what she faced last start but will need to handle a bigger weight today from a wider barrier. (2) Snoopy Now is at peak fitness 3rd up and should find this an easier assignment than what he faced in The Swan Hill Cup last start where he put in a solid performance despite his finishing position. (6) Surprise Coming looks close to a win having run a close 2nd in his last 2 runs, at peak fitness 3rd up now he looks suited rising in distance.
Selections
(7) Placo
(5) Mystic Wonder
(2) Snoopy Now
(6) Surprise Coming
Suggested Bet: (7) Placo (Win)
Race 3
(4) Stirrup Cup couldn’t reel in last start winner (1) I Catchem Fox but has more in his favour here today being better set up at the weights and with more pace expected in the early pasts of the race he gets his chance to run over the top late. (3) Savour The Dream won in a similar set up to this in his last start at Mornington and this appears not a lot harder which gives him a chance to go on with it. Expecting a decent pace up front which gives him every chance to run on late. (1) I Catchem Fox has been tough in recent performances including his last start win at Murray Bridge, is proven with a heavy weight which shouldn’t be an issue but with more speed in the race he will be tested if they tick along out in front. (7) Hot Too Go faded late in a stronger race last start, he is fitter 2nd up now so could be stronger and looks a key speed influence which gives him a strong chance.
Selections
(4) Stirrup Cup
(3) Savour The Dream
(1) I Catchem Fox
(7) Hot Too Go
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(1) Sir Now is in flying form this prep having won 2 in a row and remains in an ideal set up for him to be able to continue his winning streak. Conditions here will suit and he has a super record at this track/distance (7:4-3-0) he has a big weight to carry but backing him in to handle it over the sprint trip. (3) Gin A Tonic comes across the border today to contest an easier race and with extra fitness now 2nd up into his prep. He can settle in a prominent position on the speed and conditions will suit, if he can recapture his best form he looks a strong chance. (2) Volcanic Express made a solid return to racing at Murray Bridge when running 3rd behind Sir Now he has previously improved with additional fitness so could find that improvement 2nd up today. (10) Deepfloat Diva has looked below his best form of late but comes in here with a considerable lighter weight than some key rivals which could see him hitting the line strongly late and hard to hold out.
Selections
(1) Sir Now
(3) Gin A Tonic
(2) Volcanic Express
(10) Deepfloat Diva
Suggested Bet: (1) Sir Now (Win)
Race 5
(1) Lalor and (6) Brevitas look the key chances in this feature race having run 1st & 2nd together last time against a somewhat similar field. (1) Lalor gets a better set up here today and can get a softer run from barrier 6, so on this track feel it should give him the chance to improve enough to handle the 1400m trip. (6) Brevitas will prove hard to hold out again and will appreciate the 1400m trip but will be back in the run so if she gets too far back on this track that could prove the risk. (7) Tweeter led the field up all the way to win in her last start. She maps to be able to do that again and that may suit at this track so could prove tough to catch if the conditions suit. (5) Mountjoy was well spruiked when winning a good race at The Swan Hill Carnival, she looks capable of building on that winning form but will need to navigate a wide barrier.
Selections
(1) Lalor
(6) Brevitas
(7) Tweeter
(5) Mountjoy
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(5) Undisputable comes across the border and finds himself in an easier race than what he has faced in his last few. He can settle forwards in this race map which could suit and should have him as the one to catch late. Hard to knock the form of (2) Royal Sway who looks happy to be rising through the grades and picking off races in these winter months. She defeated Orlova last start who has since gone on to frank that form lines with wins herself. She will go close again but can’t afford to give too much of a head start to Undisputable (11) Skadoosh was fresh last start but hit the line strongly so suggest a rise to the 1300m trip now she is fitter will be an ideal set up. (1) Oak Park Maddison ran well in a stronger race last start; she will be suited dropping in grade and has won her only other start over this track/distance set up.
Selections
(5) Undisputable
(2) Royal Sway
(11) Skadoosh
(1) Oak Park Maddison
Suggested Bet: (2) Royal Sway (Win)
Race 7
No obvious speed in this race which could see (1) Nasho go to the front and run a big race here. He looks a huge price for a runner who was competitive in stronger races last prep so he wouldn’t come as a big shock here. Having the saver bet on (7) Riche D’Amour who was travelling well late last start but ran into traffic and was held up at a critical stage before picking back up and hitting the line, goes close again with better luck. (2) See Ya Later Baby is in super form having won 3 in a row, he could benefit from a slow speed as he likely settles in a positive position so can continue his winning form. (3) Halliwell is dropping in grade from her previous 2 runs, she continues to build up into this prep and should be a strong chance at this level if she can navigate the wide barrier.
Selections
(1) Nasho
(7) Riche D’Amour
(2) See Ya Later Baby
(3) Halliwell
Suggested Bet: (1) Nasho & (7) Riche D’Amour (Eachway)
Race 8
(4) Bardigrub has made a consistent start to her career including a strong performance 1st up where she won but was overturned on protest, fitter now 2nd up she doesn’t have to improve much to get every chance again but will need luck from the wide barrier. (2) Tobikko was well supported last start but couldn’t catch the winners and had to settle for a close 3rd. His best form is good enough to win at this level but barrier 1 may not be ideal if he gets shuffled too far back on the rails. (9) So Polite attracted strong support when winning her last start at this track. She can push forwards again and give them something to catch in conditions that are expected to suit. (11) Blondie’s Award can find improvement on recent runs dropping slightly in grade and getting to the 1000m trip where she has had success over previously.
Selections
(4) Bardigrub
(2) Tobikko
(9) So Polite
(11) Blondie’s Award
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
Tough way to finish as you can make strong chances to almost half of this field. Leaning the way of Victorian visitor (9) I Will Shine who looks to have found a race that is a slight drop in grade from recent runs and he will appreciate getting back to the 1400m trip. (4) Annihilate was ok in his last start but not sure he fully appreciated the heavy ground; he can find improvement in better conditions today and dropping slightly in grade will suit. Stablemate (1) Attain is dropping in grade today which could see him find improvement, may not have handled the wet track in his last couple and his form prior to that was good in similar conditions, the wide barrier looks the small risk though. (6) Naralinga blew his rivals away 2 starts ago at Mount Gambier but never really got going last start when getting caught out too wide at the top of the straight. He is drawn wide again so that is a risk, but they put a claiming apprentice on today so with the lighter weight he is a chance to find cover quicker.
Selections
(9) I Will Shine
(4) Annihilate
(1) Attain
(6) Naralinga
Suggested Bet: No bet
