Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 8 (4) Lingani
- Next Best: Race 7 (7) Placo
- Best Value: Race 6 (4) Everything Counts
Turf Talk
- It’s been a wet week so the track is rated at a Heavy 9 prior to Saturday. Despite clear conditions it may not be enough to improve the track greatly, so working on a Heavy 8 rating.
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting and will be +3m the entire circuit.
- In wet conditions the track may play off the rails in the straight. Give a slight advantage to runners who can get forwards but not expecting a savage leaders bias.
Stats that matter
- Alysha Warren has a 2kg claim which is proving handy at this time of year and she is in strong form. She has ridden 16 winners in her previous 100 rides returning a POT of +43.5%. Tala Hutchinson is another apprentice in hot form returning a POT of +14.8% from her last 100 rides.
- Patrick Payne has runners all over SA & Victoria Saturday and is down to send a runner to this meeting. His recent hot form includes 24 winners from his last 100 starters and at a POT of +26.2%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
A good level 2YO race to kick off the meeting. (1) Portarlington brings in the strongest form having run 3rd in a Group 3 last start, this is a much easier race and he is fit, should be the one to beat but will be a short price. (7) Tweeter was well supported on debut and showed good early speed. She is light in at the weights after an apprentice claim and looks likely to push forwards again. (6) Crude Awakening went to the line with Tweeter on debut and shaded her in that run, that looks a strong form line for this race so she may stack up again. (2) Brewster Buck was another well supported runner when he made is debut at Balaklava, that maiden has produced some handy form since and me maps for a soft run out of barrier 1, can find enough improvement to be a winning chance.
Selections:
(1) Portarlington
(7) Tweeter
(6) Crude Awakening
(2) Brewster Buck
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(11) Australia Forever will resume for her 2nd preparation here having showed talent in 2 runs last campaign when running into the placings in both. She did look raw in those runs but hit the line well in both, she has been given some more time to develop which could help and bring her on here. (7) Power Dancer is another runner who resumes today. He looked good when winning a recent trial and this looks a good kick off point for him, expect him to be hitting the line strongly as a fast run race will set him up well. (12) Kayla Kruzen is fit and looks close to a breakthrough win having run into the placings in 4 runs so far this prep. She will likely race up on speed and give herself every chance but will have to work from a wide barrier. (6) Navy Rok is another runner resuming, the maidens he contested in his debut campaign have produced solid form lines so if he has found a level of improvement he could go close.
Selections:
(11) Australia Forever
(7) Power Dancer
(12) Kayla Kruzen
(6) Navy Rok
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
This looks a very competitive race over the sprint trip. (2) La Roux resumes from a short break. She kicks off down in grade slightly which looks ideal and she is a runner who has fired strongly when fresh previously and she boasts a good record over the 1000m so capable of a strong performance in this set up. (6) Bardigrub also resumes, she broke her maiden 2 starts ago before contesting a stronger race prior to the break. Her recent trial win was solid so expect she can return in good order. (8) Skadoosh has race fitness on her side and has seen a wet track once previously where she handled it well, she may be best suited in these conditions. (1) Himeno has had 2 career starts for 2 wins. It’s hard to knock her winning form and Patrick Payne’s stable is in super form of late.
Selections:
(2) La Roux
(6) Bardigrub
(8) Skadoosh
(1) Himeno
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(3) Wuddzz flies on heavy rated tracks so expect him to be suited in these conditions. He finished midfield in The Warnambool Cup and this will likely be a much easier assignment so expecting him to improve and be hard to beat. (1) Test The Law had a tough run in The Mount Gambier Cup which cost him in the end when he faded out of the race late. This is his first look at the 2400m trip which should suit him, and he goes well in the wet, just needs to handle the big weight. (5) Peta’s Heart was a sharp winner 2 starts back and then had little luck last time out but knuckled down to hit the line strongly, she looks capable of handling the sharp rise in distance today based off that run. (2) Kirkliston Blu is a tough gelding who gets better over further, he is rock hard fit now and gets to a suitable distance so could find enough improvement to be a winning chance.
Selections:
(3) Wuddzz
(1) Test The Law
(5) Peta’s Heart
(2) Kirkliston Blu
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(1) Shining Smile has finished well off the winners in his last few starts but finds himself in a much easier race today and in a favourable set up. He maps softly from barrier 4 and has a consistent record over the 1000m trip so gets every chance to improve on recent finishes in a much better set up. (2) Super Alana was solid when resuming but can find improvement today dropping down in grade and coming in fitter. She has good speed and looks likely to lead from barrier 1. (3) Deepfloat Diva is fit now 3rd up into this prep and is a runner who handles wet ground well, this race looks easier than his last pair of starts so can find improvement down in this grade today. (5) Pure Bliss kicked off this prep with a nice win and has had genuine excuses in her last 2 starts, she has been moderate but can be forgiving for those runs and she may bounce back in conditions that should suit.
Selections:
(1) Shining Smile
(2) Super Alana
(3) Deepfloat Diva
(5) Pure Bliss
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(4) Everything Counts ran midfield in his debut for a new stable over a similar distance but expect he will take some good benefit out of that run and will find this slightly easier. Wet track conditions should suit as well so with the extra fitness he can be an improver. (5) Nicish has been hard to catch this prep and should find this slightly easier than her last couple, she does get back in the run and relies on luck but if she can settle closer today from barrier 1, she may be better suited. (1) Synchro is a last start winner in a stronger race than what he faces here. He has a good record at the 1400m and if he can handle the big weight will be competitive again in this grade. (8) See Ya Later Baby has won two in a row now and comes into this in hot form. If he can continue that form the rise in grade shouldn’t be a huge concern for him and from barrier 3 he maps for an ideal run to get every chance.
Selections:
(4) Everything Counts
(5) Nicish
(1) Synchro
(8) See Ya Later Baby
Suggested Bet: (4) Everything Counts – Eachway
Race 7
(7) Placo took up the lead last start and was in the race for a long way before being overhauled late and finishing a close 4th. This set up looks as if it will suit him much better as he is undefeated at this track and has a strong record on wet going. He is going well without the results so looks ready to breakthrough. (3) Yam won a good midweek race at Caulfield recently and is at peak fitness now 3rd up into this prep. A wet track suits him, so these conditions give him another strong chance. (9) Mystic Wonder finished midfield in his last start but that was in a stronger race at Flemington and the run had more merit to it than the finishing position. Dropping in grade could see him improve and he can potentially settle on the speed and race prominently. (12) Brave Star will be hoping the track continues to deteriorate as he has a super record on a heavy rated track (9:4-2-2). Taylor Johnstone takes some weight off his back as well thanks to an apprentice claim so he gets in well here for these conditions.
Selections:
(7) Placo
(3) Yam
(9) Mystic Wonder
(12) Brave Star
Suggested Bet: (7) Placo – Win
Race 8
(4) Lingani put in a big performance last start in a Group 3 when running on late for 2nd. She should find this a much easier grade and gets her ideal conditions as she is a runner who performs at her best in the wet, she should be hard to hold out in the expected conditions. (13) From The Block is rising in grade for this but gets in light at the weights and is undefeated on a heavy rated track. Conditions may suit him, and he can potentially lead so should get every chance. (5) Sixteen Reasons dropped in grade last week but never really got into the race having settled out the back. Rising in distance and on the quick back up helps give her every chance to improve. (2) Stormageddon is making his debut for a new stable. He has been kept safe in 2 recent trials and while he will clearly have improvement to come over further distances, his recent runs have been in much stronger grade races so he could surprise.
Selections:
(4) Lingani
(13) From The Block
(5) Sixteen Reasons
(2) Stormageddon
Suggested Bet: (4) Lingani – Win
Race 9
(15) Steel Tsunami ran ok last prep but had little luck in 3 starts so went back to the paddock and resumes today. He looked good in a hot recent trial at this track and sets up well from barrier 2 so potentially gets a softer run and more luck today. (8) One Kind resumes, she has won 2 of her 3 previous 1st up runs so is proven fresh and appreciates a wet track. Conditions will suit and she should settle in a good position from barrier 1. (10) So Polite is at peak fitness deep into her prep now, she looks the runner capable of finding the lead and could prove hard to catch if she controls the race tempo out in front. (7) Heaven Rocks looked as if the 900m trip was too sharp for him when resuming off a break. He is fitter now and rising in distance looks suitable so expect he can be an improver.
Selections:
(15) Steel Tsunami
(8) One Kind
(10) So Polite
(7) Heaven Rocks
Suggested Bet: (15) Steel Tsunami & (8) One Kind – Win
