Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet – R2/3 Bred ‘Em All
- Next Best – R7/1 Aviatress
- Best Value – R9/2 Gold Spirit
- Best Roughie – R8/3 Grand Larceny
Track
- Overcast conditions are again expected for Saturday but the forecast is for less rain on race day. We are still expecting the track to be well into the soft range.
- The rail pushes out slightly from last week’s position and will be +9m 2100m-1900m & +7m the remainder.
- The course proper is generally a fair track so expect runners to get every chance from a variety of positions but in the wet conditions runners will likely look to come wide in the straight and avoid the inside lanes
Stats That Matter
- Matt Laurie brings some strong chances in the Group races today and is a stable in strong form with 21 winners from his previous 100 runners returning a POT of +20%
- Luke Cartwright has 5 rides at this meeting including in the Group 1. He has ridden 16 winners in his last 100 rides for a POT return of +37.5%
Race 1
(5) Vaniteux has been running consistently so far this prep and looks ready for a rise in distance having hit the line strongly over the 1550m trip last time out. She is in light at the weights after a 3kg apprentice claim which will also suit.
(9) Bolted In was doing his best work late last week when running the fastest closing splits of a race that rates stronger than what he faces today, a slow tempo last week made it hard for him so he will be hoping for more speed today.
(2) Oceans Above appreciates wet tracks so conditions here will be expected to suit, he hit the line well last start so looks ready for a rise in distance.
(7) Smother is on the quick back up having been slow away last weekend and never really getting into the race, his form prior to last week was much stronger. Suggest deteriorating conditions last week didn’t suit him either so will be hoping the rain stays away.
Selections:
(5) Vaniteux
(9) Bolted In
(2) Oceans Above
(7) Smother
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(3) Bred ‘Em All rated highly when winning on debut 3 weeks ago here at Morphettville, he settled just off the speed and was far too strong late when reeling off some of the fastest closing sectionals of the meeting. He is drawn low so can push forwards and with improvement should prove hard to beat.
(2) Golden Horizon comes out of the same last start race as (3) Bred ‘Em All and has some lengths to find on the favourite but he is fitter now and has previously always improved when second-up having won 2/2 second-up runs in his career.
(4) Captain Happy showed good talent in his debut prep but was moderate in his resuming run, suggest he had some excuses there so he can improve but is drawn out wide again which is the risk.
(1) Yamashita’s Gold wasn’t suited by the track in his last start, drops in grade for this today and gets onto an even track so expect he will be hitting the line strongly.
Selections:
(3) Bred ‘Em All
(2) Golden Horizon
(4) Captain Happy
(1) Yamashita’s Gold
Suggested Bet: (3) Bred ‘Em All – Win
Race 3
(3) Portarlington recently resumed in a race against the older horses and was under pressure early when finding himself out the back. He did stick on well late in the run but clearly has improvement to come fitter now and getting back to his own age group will be an advantage.
(4) Brave Hustler made a good impression when winning well on debut at Murray Bridge. He will jump from barrier 1 and that should see him land in a positive position which should suit in a juvenile race at this level.
(9) Icelady showed good improvement in her second career run and if she can improve again, she should be a strong chance, looks suited to a rise in distance.
A few make their debut here today and the best of those from the trials appears to potentially be (12) Marbles and she maps for a favourable run.
Selections:
(3) Portarlington
(4) Brave Hustler
(9) Icelady
(12) Marbles
Suggested Bet: Nil
Race 4
(3) Mating Call was super when running into second in The Oaks and is a high-class filly. But can’t help but wonder if this is an afterthought race to try and knock off prior to a spell so after a big performance in her Group 1 grand final, will she be a risk? She will likely be made to work for position early from a wide barrier as well.
So, leaning to the horse who is up and coming into this prep (5) Brave Miss who we saw run a close second behind Cilacap in The Queen Of The South. She got a long way back and made up good ground late so looks ready for the 2000m now third-up and peaking in fitness, expecting her to settle closer in the run today.
(4) Polymnia has run into the placings in her last 3 runs and two of those runs have been at Group level, she looks ready for the 2000m trip.
There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of speed in this race and if that is the case that could see (8) Brown Nose Day Gal get some cheap sectionals out in front and prove tough to catch.
Selections:
(5) Brave Miss
(3) Mating Call
(4) Polymnia
(8) Brown Nose Day Gal
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(6) Cushioned was a strong winner over the 2000m trip two starts ago but never really got going in The Oaks. She needs to improve but will find this race easier than last start which should help.
(11) Angling Angel has looked a bit one paced in her last 2 runs but looks likely to see out a further distance so she looks well suited here despite the fact she is still a maiden.
(2) Panda’s Spectrum has won 2 in a row now and rises in grade for this. She maps for run of the race from barrier 1 and can settle on speed and control the speed early which may be key for her.
(4) Fringes is only coming into this race off the back of a Class 1 win but she is a runner who looks ideally suited to the long trips so a rise to the 2500m could see her improve sharply
Selections:
(6) Cushioned
(11) Angling Angel
(2) Panda’s Spectrum
(4) Fringes
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
It is hard to knock the recent form of (2) Arran Bay who has been flying here in SA with 2 recent wins but also a very good record at this track. He rates highly here again and won well with a big weight last time so should appreciate dropping some weight today. He can go in wet conditions so is hard to knock in this set up but currently no betting value so would prefer to bet late.
(6) Chicago Storm looked the winner at the top of the straight in his last run but was overrun. Conditions may suit him better in this today as he goes well on wet tracks and drops in weight, deep into his prep and fit now.
(10) Scandalize is in career best form having won 2 in a row recently before a close second last time out. He maps well again and will race prominently so expect him to figure in the finish again.
(3) Scheelite has had little luck with barrier draws in his last 2 runs but looks much better set up jumping from barrier 1. If he can get back to the form of his recent Flemington win, he stacks up well here.
Selections:
(2) Arran Bay
(6) Chicago Storm
(10) Scandalize
(3) Scheelite
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(1) Aviatress was set to kick off this campaign in the Sangster recently but was taken out of that race and is coming into this fresh. She is a class mare who is proven at Group & Listed level and has a good record at both this track and when first-up into a prep. She handles the wet so should fire fresh.
In genuinely wet conditions (4) Lingani can run well here at a huge price. Her better form comes on wet ground, and she is yet to get suitable conditions this prep so we are likely going to see sharp improvement from her in the expected conditions.
(3) Bossy Nic has been solid in 2 runs this prep placing in both of those. She is fitter now third-up into her prep and if she can find a level of improvement on what she produced last start she will be around the mark.
(7) Swiftie Harriet was a winner first-up before taking on the strong John Hawkes Stakes, coming back to her own sex will be a help and she looks ready for the rise in distance to the 1200m.
Selections:
(1) Aviatress
(4) Lingani
(3) Bossy Nic
(7) Swiftie Harriet
Suggested Bet: (1) Aviatress – Win (Save (4) Lingani in wet conditions)
Race 8
Was taken by the huge run of (3) Grand Larceny when he exploded out of the pack to run away and win the John Hawkes Stakes over the 1100m. He has scope to improve second-up and should handle the rise to the 1200m trip based on that last start. The highest rated run of his career came on a heavy track so he can handle the wet and he gets a set-up that is expected to suit so he could be capable of putting in a career peak performance for this.
(13) Flying For Fun was the unlucky watch of the Sangster Stakes when held up going to the inside before exploding late to run the fastest L400m & L200m of the meeting but just falling short. She drops in weight for this and if she handles the wet track and gets the luck this time, she should go close.
(7) Tycoon Star broke through for a well-deserved win in the Tobin Bronze which is a proven form race for this. Barrier 16 looks ugly on paper but out of the chute and with little early speed in the race he looks capable of finding a prominent position in the run early.
(16) Extragalactic was doing her best work late when chasing Tycoon Star in The Tobin Bronze. She has a very light weight in this and that should again see her coming home strongly
Selections:
(3) Grand Larceny
(13) Flying For Fun
(7) Tycoon Star
(16) Extragalactic
Suggested Bet: (3) Grand Larceny – Eachway
Race 9
(2) Gold Spirit recently found winning form when winning 2 in a row before taking on a much stronger task in the Irwin Stakes. He drops back down in level which could help see him find improvement and get back to winning form. The wide barrier shouldn’t prove an issue by this time of the day and he can handle wet tracks.
(9) Small Town Hero drops in grade and looks one of the likely early leaders of the race, with there looking likely to be little early speed he can put himself in a strong position in the run.
(5) I Am Velvet has mixed form so far this prep but suggest he may have had excuses in both runs this prep. He is capable of much better so dropping back down in grade today could help bring him on.
(8) Hypernova has proved tough to catch so far this prep but is at peak fitness now 3rd up where he has won previously and has the option to settle closer in the run today from a low barrier
Selections:
(2) Gold Spirit
(9) Small Town Hero
(5) I Am Velvet
(8) Hypernova
Suggested Bet: (2) Gold Spirit – Eachway
