Best Bets
Best Bet: R5 (2) Live Forever – WIN
Next Best: R1 (5) Champagne Ladies – WIN
Value Bet: R6 (2) Free Beer
Track
- Rain through Saturday has led this track to get into the heavy range, working off the current Heavy 8 rating but a downgrade won’t surprise if more rain falls.
- The rail moves out from the previous meeting here and will be +5m the entire.
- The track generally plays even in wet conditions so expect runners will be able to win from all positions in the run if going well enough, runners may look to come wider from the rails in the straight as the meeting progresses.
Stats
- In form apprentice Alysha Warren comes here for 4 rides. Her recent form has been strong with 13 wins from her last 100 rides and a POT return of +25.5%.
- Gary Boyce’s stable has found strong form in recent weeks including a smart winner at this track. He has produced 14 winners from his last 100 runners to return a POT of +23%.
- Justin Pickering’s recent form has been a touch below breakeven with a POT return of -6.8% from his last 100 runners, but brings a couple of strong chances here and his stable performs well at this track with a winning strike rate of 19.2% and a POT return of +66.5%.
Race 1
(5) Champagne Ladies recently made her debut at Moe where she ran 3rd in behind a smart pair with the 2nd horse going on to win his next start. That looks a good form reference, and she showed good speed there so with a light weight in this and dropping back to the 900m trip, she can go along quickly and prove hard to catch.
(4) Butterfly Island looks set for a smart debut coming from a savvy stable and setting up well out of barrier 1, expect he can be positive in the run.
(6) Daisy Dreaming went to the paddock after her debut run at this track earlier in the year, she should be better for having had more time and will appreciate a soft run from barrier 5. Expect if they overdo it out in front she can be swooping late.
(8) Res Mira was midfield on debut but that was in a stronger race and could be better suited in this grade today. Maps well so could take up a positive position early.
Selections:
(5) Champagne Ladies
(3) Amical
(4) Butterfly Island
(8) Res Mira
Suggested Bet: (5) Champagne Ladies – WIN
Race 5
(2) Live Forever has finished a way off the winners in his previous 2 runs but those were stronger races, and this is back to a grade he will find much more suitable. His maiden win came on a heavy Gawler track so conditions today should prove no issue and expect he will be put in a positive position.
(6) Pretentious Lass disappointed in a stronger race last start but she was an easier winner in the run previous here at Mount Gambier in similar conditions, can bounce back.
(11) Melissa Kate was a smart winner last start at Casterton and is on the quick back up. She is a consistent performer on her home track and in these conditions.
(3) Gusty Way didn’t show much 1st up but will find this easier and has a consistent record when 2nd up so expect him to find improvement and go closer today.
Selections:
(2) Live Forever
(6) Pretentious Lass
(11) Melissa Kate
(3) Gusty Way
Suggested Bet: (2) Live Forever – WIN
Race 6
Keen to give (2) Free Beer one more chance this prep in what looks his ideal set up. This is the easiest race he has contested so far this prep, he goes well in wet conditions and has won 2 of 3 runs at this track, he gets his chance to show his better form today.
(3) Hard Leaf recently won two in a row at this track before taking on a stronger race at Morphettville last time. He returns to where he has had recent success and down in grade, can bounce back today.
Hard to knock the recent form of (1) Come Along Jeffrey who has won 3 in a row now, looks one of the key speed influences of the race and should race prominently.
(5) Naralinga is undefeated from 2 runs at this track and recent blew rivals away here in a similar set up, he is drawn wide and will likely be back so needs luck but expect he can hit the line strongly.
Selections:
(2) Free Beer
(3) Hard Leaf
(1) Come Along Jeffrey
(5) Naralinga
Suggested Bet: (2) Free Beer – EACH WAY
