Race 1: (R75 1600m)
Tempo: Below Average
Finding a position early will be important in a race lacking genuine speed runners. (6) FLANAGAN goes to the mile for the first time, total forgive last time snagged after attempting a forward spot and caught wide, ran on late, changed her pattern in recent starts but can take a forward spot and that will be crucial to her winning this race and seeing out the trip. (4) STEELY MAN returns to Ellerslie, 7 day back-up, an excellent record at the course on dry tracks, needs a positive first half of the race to use any fitness advantage coming back to the mile. (5) RAMBLING ON has improved his ratings this preparation, one-paced and sticks on, a key speed influence.
Suggested Bet: FLANAGAN
Race 2: (3YO SW+P 1500m)
Tempo: Above Average
Speed is on and sets up for (4) CONFESARA faring best from the barrier draw, coming through a key form reference (Uncle Remus Stakes) last start. She has the ability to position closer and settle in behind a frantic speed, with clear running should take beating. (10) BURNERPHONE produced a high-rating mile win here two back, chose to hand up the lead at Matamata and wasn’t as effective. Dean Yendall engaged, expect her sent. (6) ORIGIN OF LOVE was taken on in the speed battle at Trentham and entitled to fade, back to 1600m is a positive.
Suggested Bet: CONFESARA (Next Best)
Race 3: (F&M SW+P 1400m)
Tempo: Average
Map players will find (7) SPECIAL SAKURA with an uncontested lead, last start win she worked both ends of the 1500m with a breather through the mid-stages, lightly-raced mare open to further improvement for this rise in class. (3) TOMODACHI comes through two high-rating G1 races and is a deserved favourite, she does have a monster L600 if they go slow, the inner draw means luck is required to get through the field and short enough at the quote. Waller pair (8) CHICA MOJITO and (5) MARE OF MT BULLER both have work to do to get into the race from their map positions. Won’t be surprised to see (2) LUX LIBERTAS ridden positive from a wide gate to inject speed.
Suggested Bet: SPECIAL SAKURA
Race 4: (OPEN SW+P 1200m)
Tempo: Average
Betting markets have the race nailed down, no edge. Horse to beat (8) ALABAMA LASS is a Taupo trial winner since a disappointing first-up run when no match for JIGSAW dropping out after bring headed in the straight. Key to her chances is being left alone in front, the map is friendly and wins if they sit off her. Visiting Aussie (1) COTE ATLANTIQUE finds her back from gate 1, gelded and sharp in her preliminary jump-out. (4) SWEYNESDAY has a booming finish, drawn wide, dropping out early is the most likely scenario.
Race 5: (2YO SW 1200m)
Tempo: Above Average
The highest-rated 2YO in the country is (5) LARA ANTIPOVA, she is big, fast and improving her race craft with every start. Handles all surfaces, can lead or sit off and has won both left & right-handed. The dominant juvenile of the season is placed to make it four straight wins, bad luck or a major regression in performance brings her back to the field. (6) LIGURIA and (8) TE ENCUENETRO both have scope to improve and present as the threats.
Suggested Bet: LARA ANTIPOVA (Best)
Race 6: (WFA 2000m)
A consistent theme across the Group 1’s this season has been a lack of speed, bar the BCD Sprint. Again, there is questions over who takes up the running with this field assembled which makes it a difficult race to bet into with too much confidence. (3) PIER and (5) DOCTOR ASKAR are prominent early. Will Rory Hutchings attempt another mid-race move on (1) KINGSWOOD given he’s drawn wide? Opie Bosson was successful with his first sit on champion mare (7) LEGARTO in the Herbie Dyke. She can lead, will Opie send her in what is being mooted as her racing swansong? She is top pick if ridden with positive intent.
Suggested Bet: LEGARTO small
Race 7: (Group 2 3200m)
Tempo: Above Average
Big field with speed engaged. The two Australian visitors create great interest. (1) BRAYDEN STAR was soft in betting for the Avondale Cup and nearly stole it. Blinkers come off to help him get the two miles, the draw is perfect. (13) PARADISE STORM for globe-trotting Henry Dwyer, a former European stayer, he is dour and one-paced to see out the distance, speed on is favourable, maps to strike. Value in (8) MANZOR BLUE improved performances this preparation and showed off her staying capabilities winning the Wellington Cup from last in a truly run race. Again, the speed is on to suit and she is not out of this, has had a trial between runs without race-day blinkers on. Best at odds.
Suggested Bet: MANZOR BLUE
Race 8: (3YO SW 2400m)
Tempo: Average
Hard to fault is (1) THAT’S GOLD coming off a last start win in the Avondale Guineas where he was super impresisve running out the 2100m at his 1st attempt. The race was run at a genuine tempo and he kicked hard from the bend and was strong through the line. A tactical advantage over key opposition, hardest to beat. (15) AUTUMN GLORY comes through an arguably stronger form line and the filly looks the better stayer, the draw creates problems for jockey Wiremu Pinn. In a fast run race, (6) YAMATO SATONA and (9) GENKI both come in to play.
Suggested Bet: THAT’S GOLD
Race 9: (3YO SW+P 1600m)
Tempo: Above Average
Star filly (3) WELL WRITTEN is one of if not the most exciting horse in Australasia, she has an incredible change-up speed and has a ratings and map advantage over the field and further upside to boot. At prohibitive odds, it’s a brave punter to take her on. Threats, if any, BELLE CHEVAL another promising filly, heavily-bet to win the Uncle Remus Stakes, strong tempo to offset the draw. (9) PANTHER received back-to-back poor rides tactically, losing important field position in the run in each of his two lead-ups, due some luck. Visitor (6) ASAKURA an unknown quantity, keep safe.
Race 10: (R72 F&M 1400m)
Tempo: Average
(14) BETHANY DEE can bounce back from a disappointing finish at Te Rapa where she was green in the straight and didn’t see out the 1600m, blinkers were no help, back to 1400m and blinkers off can see her continue the upward trajectory this campaign for a stable in form. (8) MID OCEAN is a key winning chance from a good draw dropping in grade against her own sex, she is currently rock bottom odds in a competitive race. (2) ELLE SOUIRIT remains unbeaten and is the fresh horse on the scene, two recent trials to be ready and in an elite first-up stable. Chances don’t end there.
Suggested Bet: BETHANY DEE (VALUE)
