Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 1 (1) Blethyn
- Value Bet: Race 7 (11) Sirius Statement
Turf Talk
- Clear weather is forecast for race day, so the meeting should be run on a Good 4 surface and remain at that rating.
- The rail remains in the True position as it was at the previous meeting here.
- The track has been playing fairly with no clear leader’s bias, but runners settling no worse than midfield have generally been advantaged.
Stats that matter
- John Leek Jnr’s stable is flying of late, producing 23 winners from his last 100 runners with a positive POT return of +25.2%. He brings three runners to this meeting, all in the same race.
- Ben Allen is riding in strong form with 22 winners from his last 100 rides and a POT return of +22.4%. He is booked for six rides at the meeting.
Race 1
(1) Blethyn was super impressive when resuming as a winner at Cranbourne. He got back in the run and produced the fastest last 600m and last 400m sectionals of the entire meeting to grab the win on the line. It is a tough task to win from the back on the Cranbourne track, so like his chances here second-up getting to a track expected to play fairer. Looks capable of stepping up again.
Selections:
(1) Blethyn
(5) Tuscaloosa Gem
(4) Machinist
(2) Bold Print
Suggested Bet: Back (1) Blethyn.
Race 7
Very competitive race but feel (11) Sirius Statement is capable of running a big race here given she has an impressive record at Pakenham, particularly at this distance (5:2-1-1). Last time here under a similar set up she finished less than a length from the winner and this race looks likely to unfold in a similar fashion. Gets the suitable set up and should run well at each-way odds.
Selections:
(11) Sirius Statement
(9) Betwitchery
(12) Damehood
(14) Rock Them Jools
Suggested Bet: Back (11) Sirius Statement each way.
