Turf talk:
- Pakenham is one of the best laid out tracks in the country with lovely runs from most starts before they start turning and a long, wide 480m home straight.
- The 1000, 1100 and 1200m races start from a chute off the top of the home straight, so a northerly wind really assists leaders in these races. Barriers are of little consequence as they only have a slight bend to navigate.
- Rail goes from the 4m position out to the 9m position. They have wanted to get away from the fence in recent meetings, but it has been no disadvantage to be on speed.
- Fine weather and light winds won’t impact racing.
Race 1
(6) Privateer probably leads. (5) Ottolenghi right there. They can control the race.
Quite like Ottolenghi and can make a case she should be favourite. Debut at Seymour when second to the handy Ruska Roma was excellent. She then went to a hot maiden at Sale and got it all wrong in the run – happy to forgive that. Jump-outs have been solid this time in and based on how she has been jumping expect her to be right on speed. 1400m is an ideal kick off point. Has the talent to win.
Be interest to see how they ride Privateer as I do think she’s a risk at 1400m. That said, she has fitness on her side, blinkers and Ben Melham are positives.
Suggested bet: Going against the early market move for Privateer, keen on Ottolenghi – think she deserves to be a clear favourite.
Race 4
Concede that (6) Trapper John is hard to beat. Brilliant debut winner at Sandown reeling off the best last 600/400/200m splits of the meeting. Second and third have both won since. Should appreciate the wide open expanses of Pakenham. That said, this is a handy BM66 and he did have a very strong tempo on his side at Sandown, which I don’t think he gets here, he’s drawn low and may need luck if he’s slightly awkward away again and I do wonder if he’s wanting a bit further now. Is absolutely the horse to beat, but $1.85 seems rock bottom to me.
(5) La Roux is in a similar boat to Trapper John in that she comes here off a visually impressive win, reeling off the day’s best late splits. She won a BM62 at Moe, coming from what seemed an impossible position at the 200m mark, and there has already been some form out of that race. She was coming into that off 48 weeks so should strip notably fitter for the outing. She can settle much more forward tonight and I think she should be second favourite – much shorter than the $8 on offer.
(8) Barari has jumped-out nicely for her return. She can roll forward for Jamie Melham. Ha as a chance fresh but I have her third favourite.
Suggested bet: Only two place dividends here with seven runners, getting $3.30 the place La Roux as a result which looks a ripping price. Having a decent place bet on her and something smaller the win.
Race 5
(3) Bossy Star looks over the odds at double figures. He had very little luck in a handy race at Pakenham first up and still finished in front of Cameron Falls, who won at Caulfield yesterday. I didn’t think he trialled quite as well this campaign as he has previously, so that first-up run should bring him on nicely.
He’s a horse who will drift back, so he’ll need the pattern on his side and I concede he’s probably better on softer ground. But his form since joining the Laurie yard has been excellent, producing ratings that would win a race like this. At $13, you have to have something each-way.
Suggested bet; Backing (3) Bossy Star 1×3 E/W
