Mitch Lewis takes a runner-by-runner look at Saturday’s Group 1 SA Derby at Morphettville.
The 2500m staying test has attracted a deep field, with proven Derby form, key local lead-ups and a strong group of fillies all converging.
#1 Single Choice (5) – T: M Cumani J: J Mott
Easy last-start winner of the Listed Manhari Galilee at Caulfield and recently won a Group 3 over the 1800m trip. He won’t find the rise to 2500m any issue and maps for a good run from barrier 5. He is going well and flying under the radar as one of the better value chances.
#2 Impulsive Reaction (10) – T: T Busuttin & N Young J: D Moor
The winner of last week’s Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes, the traditional lead-up race to this. He cut up the inside and got the gun run but also produced the fastest L600m, L400m and L200m of the race, which suggests he is ready to tackle the longer trip. Looks a strong roughie chance if he improves on last week’s performance.
#3 Kaye Jay (12) – T: C Douglas J: M Zahra
Impressed when winning on debut before jumping straight up into Group company. He ran 2nd in the Group 2 Alister Clark at Caulfield before running 4th in the hot ATC Derby, where he hit the line with Observer. This looks likely to be an easier race than that Derby and the 2500m trip should prove no issue for him. Another good chance at value.
#4 Autumn Mystery (3) – T: R Hunter J: B Rawiller
Was slow away last week in the Chairman’s and never really got into the race. He is potentially better suited in this rising to the 2500m trip but can’t afford to be slow away here, as that would likely land him back and stuck on the rails from barrier 3 in a tough position. Needs to quickly find improvement to be a winning chance.
#5 Savisanta (16) – T: C Waller J: J McNeil
Went to Randwick and contested the ATC Derby last start but may have found himself outclassed in that race when finishing out the back of the field. He likely gets back in the run from the wide barrier, so will need to quickly find some improvement to be a winning chance in this field.
#6 Geneva (4) – T: K Hoskin J: R Hutchings
New Zealand visitor who ran 3rd in the recent NZ Derby before dropping back in class to a 2100m Group 3 race and winning that. His test will be how he handles the overseas trip and how well the NZ form stacks up. He will need his best but can perhaps push forward and give himself his best chance up on the speed.
#7 Amazake (17) – T: C Maher J: B Melham
Had little luck last start at Caulfield in the Manhari Galilee but still managed to run into 3rd. Likely going to need some luck here again as he draws a wide barrier, so he could be in for a tough run, but expect the 2500m trip will suit him and if he does get the luck, he could surprise.
#8 Engine Of War (8) – T: M Price & M Kent Jnr J: D Stackhouse
Ran on well from a wide position in last week’s Chairman’s Stakes. He ran the 2nd-fastest L600m, L400m and L200m of the race there, so looks ready to take on the rise in distance today. Maps well from his barrier, so should settle in a strong position.
#9 Flying Brant (13) – T: S Theodore J: J Holder
Ran a bold race in the Chairman’s Stakes when taking up the lead and holding onto 3rd position in the finish. His best chance here is going to be to take up the speed again and look to control the tempo of the race, but the 2500m trip could prove a tough test if he doesn’t get a steady tempo on speed.
#10 Arabian Prince (19) – T: M Kent J: J Melham
Went to Kilmore two starts back to knock off his maiden, having spent the early part of his career in stronger races. He ran 2nd in the Manhari Galilee, which is proving to be a key form reference for today. Rising to the 2500m trip looks ideal for him as he could be set to peak for this, but the wide barrier means he could be in for a tough run early.
#11 Cannae (14) – T: D O’Brien J: C Williams
Has run into the placings in two Listed races in his last two starts and now makes a sharp jump up in distance. The sharp rise could prove a tough test for him, but Craig Williams takes the ride, so expect he puts him in a strong position and that will give him his best chance to find the improvement required to be a winning chance.
#12 Wigmore (6) – T: P Stokes J: T Nugent
Made his Australian debut in last week’s Chairman’s Stakes and looked very one-paced. The rise in distance could suit him and he is fitter now 2nd up, which could bring him on further, but he needs to quickly find improvement on what we saw last week to be a winning chance.
#13 Strictly Business (1) – T: T Carberry J: J Allen
The VRC Oaks winner, but she hasn’t yet managed to find any form remotely close to what she showed last prep. Perhaps she gets the right setup to finally find that improvement here, given she looks likely to appreciate the rise in distance to the 2500m and if the track is wet, that could suit. But the question remains what price you would want to be taking in the hope she can recapture her best form.
#14 After Summer (18) – T: D Sutton J: B Egan
Brings in some of the strongest form lines to this race from her most recent runs. She ran 2nd by the bob of a head in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes, even beating home Panova. After Summer then went on to finish a close 3rd in the Australian Oaks. She jumps from a wide barrier, which is a risk, but in a race with a potentially moderate speed, she may be able to cross quickly and find a strong position close to the front. Fillies do have a strong recent record in this race.
#15 Silvasista (9) – T: T & C McEvoy J: L Currie
Was a big winner of the VRC St Leger over the 2800m trip last week, so looks at peak fitness for this race today having found her sweet spot out at the staying distances now. She gets in well at the weights, dropping 1.5kg on what she carried last weekend, so can be a genuine contender in this setup despite rising in grade.
#16 Kazaru (20) – T: P Stokes J: J Opperman
Tasmanian Oaks winner over the 2100m back in February and has been hitting the line well enough in her past couple to suggest that getting out to this 2500m distance will be ideal now she is 3rd up since the freshen-up. The wide barrier will likely see her get back in the run, so she needs some luck late to be a chance.
(EM1) #17 Accidental Bid (2) – T: C Maher J: J Allen
The current race favourite, but as the 1st emergency he is currently waiting for a scratching to even gain a start in the race. He sets up well if he is to gain a start, having had two Australian runs so far and winning both of those, including an easy 8L win last start at Pakenham when rising in distance. He rated highly in that win and high enough to suggest he can compete at this level if he gains a start. Wet conditions will likely suit him as well.
(EM2) #18 Lunar Force (7) – T: R Griffiths J: TBC
Lightly raced runner who finished midfield when rising to the 2400m trip last start. Needs to find some sharp improvement on recent performances to be a genuine winning chance in this field.
(EM3) #19 Shotaro (11) – T: T Busuttin & N Young J: T Pannell
Comes into this off the back of a win in maiden grade at Kilmore last start. He may be a progressive stayer and suited rising in trip, but this is a big jump up in class from that last-start win.
(EM4) #20 Borchard (15) – T: M Conlon J: TBC
Has started long odds in his last few races, which rate far, far easier than this today, so if he gets into the race, he may find himself well outclassed at this stage of his career.
