Last week I made the bold call to take on short-priced favourite Cosmic Crusader at Caulfield. He duly went out and won, leaving me with a little egg on my face.
But there’s no point making bold calls if one wrong one sends you scurrying for cover. So, here we are a week later and I’m ready to go again.
Race 5 at Sandown on Saturday shapes as one of the better two-bet plays I can recall in recent times.
It’s a sharp 1000m contest for the three-year-olds and, for me, the race revolves around two runners: Incognito and Mull Of Kintyre.
Both have returned in outstanding order at the trials, both have profiles that suggest they can take a significant step forward this preparation and, most importantly, the market is giving us enough room to back them both.
At the current prices of $4 and $7.50, I don’t want to choose between them. I want to back them both.
Incognito looks back
They simply don’t trial any better than (2) Incognito has ahead of his return.
He has worked through the line powerfully in two Sydney trials and, to my eye, looks much more like the horse that created such a big impression early in his two-year-old season.
Incognito was a boom juvenile after winning the Breeders’ Plate on debut last October. That performance stamped him as a horse with serious ability, but his autumn campaign never really lived up to expectations.
There may have been good reason for that.
A look through his gear history suggests things weren’t completely straightforward last preparation. Synthetic Hoof Filler and Equicast were used at different stages, while the stable also experimented with a range of tongue gear.
This time around there are some significant changes. The Equicast and tongue tie come off, while the blinkers have also been removed. Combine those changes with what he has shown at the trials and there are plenty of reasons to think we might see the real Incognito again.
His debut win was outstanding and if he returns anywhere near that level, he is going to take plenty of beating on Saturday.
I also like the wide draw from the Sandown 1000m chute. It should give Mark Zahra options and allow Incognito to build momentum rather than being cluttered away amongst horses.
Mull Of Kintyre brings an underrated form line
The other horse I want firmly on side is (6) Mull Of Kintyre.
She couldn’t have done much more on debut at Echuca, going straight to the front and winning a strong maiden in very slick time.
More importantly, the form out of that race has continued to stand up.
Sixth-placed Fontein Jewel has won two of his next three and arguably should have won all three. Fourth-placed Pinazaki was unlucky not to win the Donald Classic at his following start, while runner-up Running Rich subsequently finished third in the Bendigo Gold Rush.
Mull Of Kintyre has also returned in terrific order. I loved her recent trial where she went to the line locked together with My Gladiola, largely under her own steam.
I suspect she will ultimately be even better once she gets to 1100m or 1200m, but the 1000m on Saturday doesn’t worry me given the way the race should set up.
From the inside alley, Jamie Melham can use her natural speed, take her straight to the front and make the rest of the field catch her. Having walked the track, suspect the inside section will hold up, at least throgh the early part of the meeting.
I think she will take plenty of running down.
The $100 play
If I was spending $100 on the race, this is how I’d play it:
- $65 WIN Incognito at $4
- $35 WIN Mull Of Kintyre at $7.50
That gives us a collect of approximately $260 whichever one wins.
Two talented three-year-olds, two of Australia’s best jockeys in Mark Zahra and Jamie Melham, two outstanding trial performances and enough fat in the prices to back them both.
