Saturday’s edition of Bet Legends Take Us On sees Shaun Beirne taking a firm position against a handful of popular runners across Eagle Farm and Sandown.
After landing a string of successful lays in recent weeks, Beirne is again happy to risk some of the market’s more prominent hopes, believing there is value elsewhere in several feature races.
His strongest opinion comes in Eagle Farm’s Race 7, where he believes the market may have overestimated the chances of Tron Bolt in a race he sees as far deeper than the betting suggests.
Eagle Farm Race 4 – Within The Law
Beirne acknowledges the daughter of Better Than Ready has excuses from her past two starts, but says the market has overreacted.
“She’s been unlucky twice this prep and should settle closer in the run, but she still needs to improve more than two lengths on her last-start rating to justify her current price,” Beirne said.
A key concern is where she maps to settle on a track that could favour runners away from the fence.
“She looks likely to settle on the rail and that might not be the place to be.”
Instead, Beirne sees value in a pair of rivals.
“Skyhook should get a soft lead, while Tupakara has a big turn of foot. I think both of those runners should be shorter in betting.”
Despite taking her on for the win, Beirne isn’t completely dismissing Within The Law’s chances and has found a market he believes offers better value.
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Eagle Farm Race 7 – Tron Bolt
Beirne is keen to oppose Tron Bolt despite the gelding’s strong market position.
He believes the race contains plenty of genuine winning chances and isn’t convinced Tron Bolt deserves to hold favouritism.
“Everyone is treating this like a grand final and I think it’s a much deeper race than the market expects,” Beirne said.
While Tron Bolt’s time figures have been strong, Beirne believes there are vulnerabilities in his profile and says several runners around him in betting are capable of turning the tables.
He specifically highlighted Berzelius as a runner he is keen to keep on side for the book.
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Eagle Farm Race 9 – Half Yours
The Q22 presents another opportunity for Beirne to take on a high-profile runner. He is equally cautious regarding Half Yours.
While the wet track and rise in trip appear ideal on paper, Beirne believes the ratings produced this preparation have fallen short of the horse’s spring peak.
“I know the conditions suit, but the big ratings we saw in the spring just haven’t been there this campaign.”
The Saturday morning scratching of Pride Of Jenni does suit Half Yours, who should be able to stay in his comfort zone, but Beirne points to the map as being a big issue.
“He settles last in this field off what is set to be a moderate tempo – that’s not the ideal recipe for success.”
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The Verdict
Beirne is taking a contrarian approach on one of the biggest racing days of the winter, opposing several runners expected to attract strong support.
As always, the Bet Legends book is prepared to stand against the market and back its opinion. Sign up today at betlegends.com.au.
