Shaun Beirne has never been one to blindly follow the market and this weekend the Bet Legends bookmaker is again prepared to stand against a couple of runners he believes are being asked to do more than their ratings suggest.
Beirne’s approach has become a familiar one. If the figures don’t stack up, he’s happy to oppose even the most popular horses in betting.
Eagle Farm Race 8: Jimmysstar
The Kingsford Smith Cup shapes as one of the most open races of the Queensland Carnival and Beirne believes that should be reflected in the market.
Despite Jimmysstar holding favouritism in many markets, Beirne simply can’t get the horse to the same rating level as the current quote suggests.
“Jimmysstar just isn’t rating high enough to keep being put up favourite.”
Private Eye is another runner Beirne is happy to take on.
“I can find reasons to be against Private Eye also. Trials? Query. Last three runs have all been below market expectation.”
If there is one horse capable of making him nervous, it’s Fangirl.
“Fangirl needs to lift in ratings but she flies second-up and has trialled well.”
Ultimately, Beirne sees a race full of opportunities away from the top of the market.
“There’s plenty of other value. Just open the bag and let them bet.”
Bet Legends Special
Beirne is offering punters a market around the favourite.
Jimmysstar to run 1st or 2nd – $6 (subject to change)
Caulfield Race 5: El Rocko
At Caulfield, Beirne believes race shape could be the key factor working against El Rocko, who has been smashed in early betting.
“There looks to be some pressure and El Rocko performs best when he can control without pressure.”
While El Rocko has attracted support, Beirne feels there are genuine threats emerging around him.
“See That Storm has strong UK figures and has trialled and jumped out very nicely.”
As for the remainder of the field, Beirne believes the market has largely found the right mark.
“The other Aussie horses all look around the right price.”
However, the favourite is a different story: “I just can’t get El Rocko anywhere near the price.”
Beirne expects the market to eventually correct stating the well backed runner “drifts from here.”
Bet Legends Special
El Rocko to run 1st or 2nd – $4 (subject to change)
For Beirne, both races present the same theme that has underpinned much of his recent success. The market has gravitated towards a couple of popular runners, but his ratings suggest punters may be paying a premium for reputation rather than performance.
And when that happens, the Bet Legends bookmaker is always happy to take them on.
