Bet Legends analyst Shaun Beirne is happy to step into the firing line on Saturday, taking on two heavily-backed runners he believes are under the odds in feature races at Doomben and Sandown.
Beirne has zeroed in on star mare Pride Of Jenni in the Group 1 Doomben Cup, declaring he’s prepared to oppose the fan favourite despite the risk involved.
“Once bitten, twice as crazy,” Beirne said.
“She’s obviously an outstanding mare, but in her last two preparations we’ve seen the same pattern. Her peak performances have often been followed by a flat one because of the enormous effort she puts into her races.”
Beirne believes the Doomben Cup setup may leave the market vulnerable to overrating Pride Of Jenni off her previous run.
“I’m banking on that happening again here,” he said.
“There’s no doubting her talent, but I think there are horses in this race that have been specifically set for this target, who turn the tables from the Hollindale.”
“Surely the opposition jockeys will make this more of a contest than that Hollindale when Jenni was able to do as she pleased?”
“At the prices, I’m happy to take her on.”
As part of the Bet Legends specials, Beirne is opposing the mare in a “to run first or second” market at $4.
Earlier in the Doomben program, Beirne is also against the heavily-supported Zealously in Race 5.
“She produced a personal best first-up and the market is expecting her to go to another level again,” he said.
“She probably needs to improve another couple of lengths to justify the current quote and while the map says she can run well, the ratings profile says she’s under the odds in a very deep race.”
At Sandown, Beirne is also prepared to oppose the well-backed Gilded Water despite the gelding attracting strong support in early betting.
“He’s a horse that can come to hand quickly fresh, but I still think he’ll improve off this run,” Beirne said.
“The key for me is that his main opposition are race fit and already deep into their preparations, whereas he’s first-up at 1800 metres. I just can’t have him as short as the market does.”
Bet Legends has framed a special around Gilded Water to run first or second at $3, with Beirne again happy to be against the hype.
“It’s never comfortable taking on horses the public wants to be with,” he said.
“But that’s where the value is sometimes. You’ve got to be willing to oppose the popular opinion if the numbers tell you to.”
