The speed map looks crucial to Saturday’s 1400m Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. The 1400m start is tricky at Caulfield. they have a short, uphill run before they start turning that commands decisiveness from jockeys.
(13) Regal Award looks the natural leader, while (2) Evaporate almost has to press forward from his wide draw. Taking him back and conceding a big start over 1400m looks a difficult path to victory, particularly in a race that doesn’t appear overloaded with speed.
Those two should control proceedings, with (3) Sepals potentially landing in the perfect stalking position from gate five. From barrier one, expect Craig Williams to be positive aboard (6) Lady Shenandoah and attempt to secure the leader’s back, but may ultimately end up three back the fence.
It doesn’t look like a race that will be run at a manic tempo, although Regal Award can get keen, so his connections will presumably be happy to let him bowl along at a genuine enough clip.
Note: Speed map does not include emergencies Tennessee Bound and Harry’s Yacht at this stage. Tennessee Bound would look to press forward and settle first four while Harry’s Yacht would be second half of the field.
Sepals set for another big first-up run
(3) Sepals looks an outstanding each-way bet at the $11 available with TAB.
His record at 1400m is remarkable: six starts for five wins and a second, with that sole defeat coming when runner-up in the Stradbroke.
He was terrific in that race when last at the sports and now returns to the scene of his biggest victory. His two jump-outs this preparation haven’t been flashy, but that’s hardly a concern. He trialled similarly before his autumn campaign and promptly resumed with an excellent fourth in the Newmarket Handicap.
The only previous time Sepals resumed over 1400m, he won.
Everything about this preparation suggests the Sir Rupert Clarke has been a set play from the stable. He gets his preferred trip, arrives fresh and draws perfectly to stalk the speed.
The $11 on offer appeals and it would be no surprise to see that price continue to disappear as race day approaches.
Regal Award gets his chance
(13) Regal Award is another who looks to have been aimed squarely at this race.
His trials have contained plenty of intent and his Queensland winter campaign should have him well placed heading into the spring. He was a dominant winner of the Fred Best before things went completely wrong in the Stradbroke.
This may well be his best opportunity to land a Group 1 this campaign and the setup is excellent.
He has drawn beautifully, should find the front without having to burn too much petrol and gets the chance to control the race. At $7.50, he appeals as the other key betting play.
Can Angel Capital finally get the breaks?
(5) Angel Capital arguably should have won this race by a furlong last year.
He endured a horror passage and went to the line with plenty left to offer. Things again didn’t go his way in the Memsie Stakes last start, where he pulled his head off and reportedly didn’t handle the soft ground.
He may have earned the “non-winner” tag some punters have attached to him, but he won’t get many better opportunities to put that reputation to bed.
Back on top of the ground and with the right run, he’s a major player.
A roughie worth watching
If (17) Harry’s Yacht sneaks into the field, he’s a fascinating runner at a big price.
His fresh run in The Heath over 1100m was excellent and, importantly, he has jumped out better than ever between runs. He’s one to include at odds if he gets his chance.
(6) Lady Shenandoah is another with claims. She’s raced in Victoria just once, when beaten as a short-priced favourite in last year’s Manikato Stakes, and the booking of Craig Williams from barrier one looks significant. Expect Williams to drive her out of the gates and attempt to hold the leader’s back.
She’s firmly in the winning mix, although there doesn’t appear to be much juice left in her price.
(2) Evaporate simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race and Blake Shinn is one of the best in the business at overcoming wide barriers. Drawing the car park isn’t enough to rule him out, although he may ultimately be a slightly better horse at 1500-1600m.
He should still be in the fight for a long way.
The runner who looks harder to make a case for at the current price is (7) Warnie. There’s no doubt he’s flying, but barrier three could leave him in an awkward position if he gets back, while several of these had his measure in the Stradbroke.
At $9.50, he looks short enough given how much may need to go right.
