Summary:
- Race 2 – Bridgeitall WIN
- Race 4 – Pick Wisely WIN
- Race 7 – Struggle Street WIN
Overview:
Swan Hill may boast a long straight, but history shows it’s rarely a disadvantage to race on-speed – particularly when winds are light, as forecast for Tuesday.
The 975m start kicks off from a chute with a single bend, so barriers have little bearing. The 1200m and 1300m starts offer clean runs down the back straight before the turn, while positioning becomes more critical from the 1600m chute, where finding a spot early can make or break a race.
Key Players:
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Cliff Brown is in form – 21 winners from his last 100 runners with a massive 66.8% profit on turnover (POT). He lines up Fornof in Race 1.
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Dean Yendall is a proven force at Swan Hill, boasting 87 winners from 419 rides (20.8% strike rate).
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Apprentice Emily Pozman continues to impress with 18% winners from her last 100 rides – a rider on the rise.
Matt Welsh has taken a look at a few key races today:
Race 1 – 975m – Maiden – 1.00pm
Tips: 5 Fornof, 2 Hollow Turf, 11 Smash Blue, 1 French Lolly
Betting Suggestion: Backing Fornof to WIN at anything above $1.80
Fornof looks a real jump-and-run type. She has speed to burn and the booking of Dean Yendall adds confidence; expect her to race on speed and win on debut. Hollow Turf has trialled up nicely for this return, while Smash Blue comes out of a reasonable race at Bendigo.
Race 2 – 975m – Maiden – 1.30pm
Tips: 9 Bridgeitall, 3 Helovawin, 8 Break Out Lucille, 6 Tan Tat Dubai
Betting Suggestion: Think the $2.70 about Bridgeitall is a spoil — she should be odds-on
Very moderate maiden. The form out of Bridgeitall’s debut has been super, with three of the four who finished ahead of her since winning. She had trialled well prior, there was market expectation, and she’s again jumped out nicely this time in. Helovawin was OK in a good maiden on debut. Tan Tat Dubai has been to HK and back — yet to race but showed enough in earlier work.
Race 3 – 1300m – Maiden – 2.00pm
Tips: 6 Welcometotheshow, 2 1 Bitta Bon Magic, 7 Bella Gisella
Betting Suggestion: Time for a walk
Welcometotheshow recorded the best last 200m split of the Seymour meeting last start. The 1000m to 1300m step is a query but looks ideal for him based on how he hit the line.
Race 4 – 1600m – Maiden – 2.30pm
Tips: 4 Pick Wisely, 3 Karasmatic, 2 Il Cielo, 13 Unwind
Betting Suggestion: Backing Pick Wisely at ~$2.50
Pick Wisely worked to the line strongly in a leader-dominated race at Bendigo — it was a better maiden than this and he maps ideally. Karasmatic can overdo it mid-race which is a real concern getting to the mile, but gets the earmuffs here to try and have him settle a little better early doors.
Race 7 – 957m – BM58 – 4.00pm
Tips: 8 Struggle Steet, 9 Over The Stars, 10 Shadow Black, 5 Mistavain
Betting Suggestion: Keen Struggle Street at $3.40
Struggle Street always showed ability for the Gelagotis stable and now she finds herself with Paul Preusker. She trialled very well leading into this campaign and was dominant winning first up at Warracknabeal in fast time. Drawn well for Linda Meech, she should roll forward here and prove incredibly hard to beat.
