The first markets for Saturday’s racing are up and punters haven’t wasted any time getting involved.
TAB posted its opening markets on Monday following nominations, giving punters an early look at a huge weekend featuring the Seven Stakes at Randwick and two Group 1s at Caulfield, the Underwood Stakes and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.
There is one important warning before diving in: these are all-in markets.
That means if you back one on Monday or Tuesday and it doesn’t accept on Wednesday, you do your dough.
But that risk can also create opportunity. Bookmakers are pricing races before final fields, barriers and jockeys are confirmed, and occasionally there are some genuine overs there for punters willing to pull the trigger early.
Winx odds for Autumn Glow
There are just seven nominations for the Seven Stakes at Randwick and TAB isn’t exactly taking any chances with Autumn Glow, who has been installed a prohibitive $1.20 favourite.
That’s Winx and Black Caviar territory.
The small field certainly helps, but $1.20 tells you everything about how TAB expects the race to unfold. Autumn Glow completely dominates the market and anything other than another victory would be a major upset.
Headley Grange halved in the Bill Ritchie
One of the biggest moves in Sydney has come in the Bill Ritchie Handicap.
Joe Pride’s Headley Grange was an impressive winner last start and punters clearly liked what they saw.
TAB opened him at $11 on Monday, but that price didn’t last long. He has been crunched into $6, making him one of the more significant early movers of the week.
Those who went shopping early have certainly got the better of the price.
Headwall backed to make Everest statement
The Shorts is always one of the most important Everest lead-ups and Saturday’s edition will help shape the final field for the $20 million sprint.
Punters have quickly forgiven Headwall for a luckless first-up performance.
He opened $4.50 with TAB and has already been backed into $3.50, where he shares the top of the market with Joliestar.
With Everest spots and reputations on the line, The Shorts shapes as one of Saturday’s most fascinating races.
922 days without a win
Unlike most of Saturday’s races, markets for the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and Underwood Stakes have been available for several weeks given their Group 1 status.
And the Sir Rupert Clarke market is headed by arguably to of Australia’s most notorious non-winners.
Lady Shenandoah ($4) and Angel Capital ($8) sit prominently in betting despite neither having won for some time.
Between them, the Chris Waller pair have gone 922 days without a victory.
For some perspective, Britain has had four prime ministers in the space of 922 days.
Both clearly have the talent to win a Group 1 handicap, but punters taking single figures are being asked to overlook a fairly substantial collective drought.
Cosmic Crusader holds Underwood favouritism
The Underwood Stakes market has been much more settled.
Cosmic Crusader has been favourite for some time and remains firmly entrenched at the top of TAB betting at $3.
There has been support for noted frontrunner Lindermann, who has shortened from $6 into $5.
The Underwood is traditionally an important spring crossroads and Saturday should tell us plenty about where several of these horses sit heading towards the major races deeper into the carnival. Chris Waller is set to play a major part in the race with six horses nominated; it will be interesting to see how many take their place.
Punters hone in on Guineas Prelude pair
If there was one market punters attacked immediately on Monday, it was the Caulfield Guineas Prelude.
Blind Raise opened $3.50 and was quickly hammered into $2.50, but he isn’t alone at the top of betting.
Wolf Gap has attracted an even bigger move, slashed from $4.50 into $2.50.
Meanwhile, American Eagle has gone in the opposite direction after opening at $2.50.
The market has made its opinion pretty clear: Blind Raise and Wolf Gap are the two punters want.
Tolaga Bay cut in half
There has been another substantial move in the Thousand Guineas Prelude.
The Mark Walker-trained Tolaga Bay opened at $8, but punters wasted little time snapping that up and she has been trimmed all the way into $4.50.
With the Thousand Guineas looming, Saturday’s Prelude should provide a much clearer picture of the pecking order among the fillies.
Bridal Waltz looks thrown in at the weights
Perhaps the most interesting runner on the entire Caulfield card from a weights perspective is Bridal Waltz in the How Now Stakes.
The Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman-trained mare is rated 109, four points clear of nearest rival Tuileries, yet gets into the race with just 55kg under the set-weights-and-penalties conditions.
Tuileries has to carry 2kg more despite being rated four points inferior, while stablemate Ole Dancer, rated five points below Bridal Waltz, is lumped with 59kg.
You don’t need to be Pythagoras to work out Bridal Waltz looks pretty well treated.
Punters haven’t missed it, either.
She has been strongly backed into $3.50 favouritism with TAB.
A Caulfield Cup ticket up for grabs
Finally, the Naturalism Stakes provides another important stepping stone towards the Caulfield Cup.
Last year’s edition was won by Half Yours, and Saturday’s winner can put themselves firmly into the Caulfield Cup conversation.
Early betting has been relatively quiet compared to some of the other races on the program, with Zahrann heading TAB’s market at $4.50.
That might change once final fields and barriers are released on Wednesday.
For now, though, the early punters have spoken.
Headley Grange, Headwall, Blind Raise, Wolf Gap, Tolaga Bay and Bridal Waltz have all attracted support, while Autumn Glow is being priced like defeat is barely worth contemplating.
Just remember: all-in means all-in. The early bird can catch the $8 that becomes $4.50. It can also back the horse that isn’t there when the barriers open on Saturday.
