Shaun Beirne has been building the ledger nicely by taking on the market, laying beaten favourite after beaten favourite, but the veteran bookie knows the pendulum always swings.
Now, with Cranbourne under lights on Friday, the man from Bet Legends is stepping back into the ring, ready to face punters again and happy to oppose a couple of key runners.
As always, he is trusting the numbers over the noise.
Race 3 – EXIT under the microscope
Beirne is not convinced the market has this one right.
“Barrier one might look good on paper, but this horse has only settled in front of two of her 27 rivals in four starts,” Beirne said.
“From that draw he could end up buried away, and I don’t see the tempo being strong enough to help him.”
While Exit ($2.40) did win first up last preparation, Beirne says even that performance falls short of what is required here.
“Even his peak rating from that win would still be below market expectation in this race. He needs to produce a new personal best to justify his price, and I’m not in the business of betting on that happening.”
In Beirne’s eyes, the favourite is being asked to produce something he has not yet shown, and that is exactly the kind of scenario Bet Legends looks to oppose.
Race 6 – Taking on the percentages
Beirne says one of Bet Legends’ most profitable strategies has been targeting races where they can confidently oppose a large chunk of the field, and he sees another opportunity here.
“We’ve been getting stuck into races where we can lay a big percentage of the field and it’s been very profitable,” he said.
“This looks like a similar setup.”
Jennyanydots heads the market, but Beirne’s ratings suggest she is under the odds.
“If I give Jennyanydots her career peak rating, I still have her about a length and a quarter off market expectation. That might not sound huge, but from a pricing point of view it creates a great value lay.”
Mystic Reign also has to improve sharply to win, according to Beirne.
“She is closer to her mark on my ratings, but I still need to see her leap back towards her personal best. She has performed well below market expectation at her past three starts.
“That is a leap of faith I am more than happy to bet against.”
Bet Legends seem to have the wood over punters at the moment and they are certainly not changing their approach. At Cranbourne on Friday night, they are once again happy to take the market on and trust the numbers to fall their way.
If you like any of these, head over to betlegends.com.au where you are sure to get top odds.
