This year’s New Year’s Eve meeting at Flemington is a first, but the task facing punters is a familiar one. Markets form early, narratives take shape, and prices often assume a level of certainty that the racing itself doesn’t always deliver.
Flemington certainly has a habit of throwing up a rough result or two.
Shaun Beirne thinks one race stands out as being more even than the market suggests, and it’s a contest where he’s prepared to take a position.
Flemington Race 6 – Celerity too short
At first glance, the market suggests a thin race. Shaun isn’t convinced.
“This is a much more even race than the prices indicate,” Beirne said.
Celerity sits prominently in the betting having been heavily backed when first markets went up, but her profile doesn’t scream dominance.
“She’s only won the one race, her maiden, and that rated as just fair on my figures.”
“Harry Got Styles ties in closely with her on form, and while neither is in stellar shape, his ratings bank and the Bates claim give him a small but important weight edge over their recent clashes.”
More importantly, Beirne doesn’t see this as a two-horse race.
“There are other genuine winning chances in this. It’s not a race you want to be taking short prices in.”
Celerity is currently around the $2.60 mark but if you’re keen to back the Godolphin runner it may pay to wait until late and attack Bet Legends.
As always, Shaun is happy to put the opinion on the line. Be sure to check out the Bet Legends website.
