Take Us On: Shaun Beirne Goes Back to the Well at Geelong
Shaun Beirne has been on a serious run. Both lays landed on the weekend, with Bet Legends once again happy to back their opinion by being top of the market on two key favourites.
He’s back again on Wednesday, this time turning his attention to Geelong, where one well-fancied runner is stepping into a race that Beirne believes is being priced the wrong way around.
Geelong Race 5: Taking On Amizetta
At first glance, $2.45 favourite Amizetta ticks a few boxes. The step up to 2400 metres is a positive and the profile looks solid enough for this level.
But when Beirne drills into the numbers, the picture changes.
“On my ratings, this is effectively a match race with Highland Glory ($3.20), and they should be the other way around in the market,” Beirne said.
The concern isn’t just about today’s setup, but how Amizetta has been performing relative to expectation.
“She has been well below market expectation and career peaks in 3 of her last 4 runs.,” he said. “There are some excuses in the form and a decent run two starts ago, but even that figure still comes up short of what’s required here.”
That leaves Beirne with a clear decision to make.
“Purely at the prices, I have to take on Amizetta,” he said. “And unlike our usual approach, I’ll be best price and looking to attract punter money early. I suspect the prices will come much closer together later.”
Another race, another favourite Beirne is happy to oppose. So punters would be either well advised to take the tip or if they’re keen to back Amizetta then head over to Betlegends.com.au, where you’re assured to get the best value.
