With 2025 nearly in the books, Betfair has taken a deep dive into the exchange data to uncover the moments that defined the year. The result is a familiar mix of drama, liquidity and disbelief – none moreso than a $1.01 collapse that may go down as the worst bad beat of them all.
The $1.01 that broke Christmas: Perth Scorchers’ collapse seals 2025’s worst beat
If you’re handing out awards for bad beats, 2025 has been sewn up in the second last week of the year.
The Perth Scorchers, having just posted a scarcely believable 257, were matched at $1.01 on Betfair before going on to lose one of the most extraordinary Big Bash matches ever played.
An eye-watering $6.7 million was matched at $1.01 alone, with a further $13.2 million traded at $1.02, all on a result that appeared, by any conventional measure, to be done and dusted.
What followed was a perfect storm. A record chase. A wicket first ball of the innings.
Matt Renshaw dismissed early, only to be reprieved by a no-ball. Momentum swinging from over to over, delivery to delivery. In the background, a global exchange market humming as traders moved in and out ball by ball.
“It was a perfect storm in terms of a bad beat at $1.01 with BBL attracting huge turnover globally,” said Betfair’s Tom Haylock.
“Second highest BBL score in history being chased down after a wicket first ball of the innings and Renshaw out before being called back due to a no-ball, the match had it all.”
There was a total of $228 million matched on the match!
For every bad beat on the Exchange there’s a winner on the other side…
As brutal as the result was for anyone who took the $1.01 about the Scorchers, it’s worth remembering how exchange markets actually operate. Not every dollar matched at that price is someone blindly believing the game is over. A significant portion of that money is traders hedging existing positions or laying short prices to lock in outcomes.
And, for every losing punter on the back side there is a winner punter who has layed the outcome.
“We always think about the people backing and losing, but we have to remember that of that $6.772 million matched on Scorchers at $1.01, half of that figure is on the lay side, meaning they’ve risked little to win big,” Haylock said.
“For every bad beat on the exchange, there’s a crazy win.”
Even allowing for that, the scale of the Scorchers’ collapse still stands out.
“Can’t recall more traded on any team, horse or outcome at $1.01 for it to go on and lose. Can’t believe it.”
Cricket’s rise on the Exchange
Cricket has increasingly become one of the most liquid sports on the exchange, particularly in-play. And, the Heat-Scorchers epic was a reminder of just how global that audience has become. Big Bash League matches already trade strongly, but games involving record totals and dramatic chases can see liquidity snowball rapidly as momentum swings.
“Cricket trades extremely well and has huge liquidity globally,” Haylock said.
“Earlier this year, in late November, we saw over $33 million sitting there on South Africa to be backed against India in a Test match, which is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. It definitely caught the attention of everyone in the Australian office.”
While Australian customers can’t trade in-play, global participants can and do. Ball-by-ball trading, short-term hedging and opportunistic laying all combine to create enormous matched volumes when drama peaks.
Racing’s biggest stages, by the numbers
Racing, though, remains the heartbeat of exchange turnover, particularly when the sport hits its biggest moments.
In 2025, the single most-traded race on Betfair was the Melbourne Cup at Flemington, once again confirming its status as the nation’s wagering behemoth.
Close behind were some familiar heavyweights. The Everest at Randwick ranked second, followed by the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley and the Caulfield Cup.
Interestingly, Ka Ying Rising in the Everest was the most traded horse across the year, followed by Al Riffa in the Melbourne Cup.
Flemington then dominated the next tier, with the VRC Derby, VRC Oaks, Champions Stakes, Coolmore Stud Stakes and Empire Rose all sitting inside the top ten most-traded races of the year. Even Cup Day itself appeared twice, with Surfin’ Bird’s race also generating enormous interest.
What stands out is not just the size of the turnover, but how concentrated it is. Eight of the ten most-traded races occurred during Melbourne Cup week, a reminder that when the spotlight is brightest, liquidity follows. These are the races where markets behave differently, prices move faster, and the sense of certainty can evaporate in a few strides.
| Event Date | Race Name | Meeting Name | Race Number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Cup | Flemington (AUS) – 4th Nov | R7 |
| 2 | The Everest | Randwick (AUS) – 18th Oct | R7 |
| 3 | Cox Plate | Moonee Valley (AUS) – 25th Oct | R10 |
| 4 | Caulfield Cup | Caulfield (AUS) – 18th Oct | R9 |
| 5 | VRC Derby | Flemington (AUS) – 1st Nov | R7 |
| 6 | VRC Oaks | Flemington (AUS) – 6th Nov | R8 |
| 7 | Champions Stakes | Flemington (AUS) – 8th Nov | R8 |
| 8 | Coolmore Stud Stakes | Flemington (AUS) – 1st Nov | R6 |
| 9 | Empire Rose Stakes | Flemington (AUS) – 1st Nov | R8 |
| 10 | Surfin’ Bird (Cup Day) | Flemington (AUS) – 4th Nov | R9 |
Bad beats on the track
The Brisbane Heat finish was dramatic, but it was far from isolated. Across Australian and New Zealand racing in 2025, 321 horses were beaten after trading at $1.01, meaning the market rated them as having better than a 99 percent chance of winning from that position.
Some of those defeats were agonisingly close. Others unfolded in slow motion. One runner at Riverton had more than $18,000 matched at $1.01 before being run down. Seven horses managed the remarkable feat of being beaten twice after trading at that price, including Beautiful Jewel, who did it both times at Morphettville.
Certain tracks developed reputations along the way. Morphettville led the country for $1.01 defeats, followed by the Gold Coast, Eagle Farm, Moonee Valley and Warrnambool.
Chaos, with a counterpoint
For all the in-running drama, 2025 also delivered an interesting contradiction.
At the elite end of the sport, Group 1 racing was more predictable than ever. Winners returned an average of just $8.02, the shortest on record, with 32 favourites saluting across the year.
At the same time, the exchange still produced moments that defied belief. No fewer than 125 horses traded above $700 before going on to win, headlined by Jerome at Warwick, who got the job done after touching $860. It was the other side of the same coin; long shots reminding everyone that racing never truly follows the script.
A year summed up at $1.01
In many ways, the Perth Scorchers’ collapse felt like the perfect snapshot of 2025. A result that looked beyond doubt. A market priced accordingly. Enormous liquidity. And then, somehow, everything changed.
Some punters walked away shaking their heads. Others landed trades they’ll be talking about for years. And the rest were reminded, once again, that even at $1.01, nothing is ever guaranteed.
