The Top 4
| Analyst | First | Second | Third | Fourth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blair Gibson | (12) Alabama Lass | (16) Esha | (11) Skybird | (14) Niance |
| Dean Watling | (7) Baraqiel | (14) Niance | (12) Alabama Lass | (1) Rothfire |
| Mitch Lewis | (7) Baraqiel | (10) Arabian Summer | (9) Oak Hill | (14) Niance |
| Matt Welsh | (10) Arabian Summer | (11) Skybird | (7) Baraqiel | (16) Esha |
Blair Gibson
I think this is a pretty poor Group 1 if I am being honest. You have three Queenslanders involved and the main lead-up race is not one that interests me. Add to that it is at The Valley and luck can play a major role here.
Looks to be good speed engaged as you’d expect and it just depends what the horses caught wide do. Just feel (12) Alabama Lass and (16) Esha are the two who should get the right runs no matter what. They have great early speed, draw well and may well be the two leaders. They are lightly raced and have a stack of upside.
Moonee Valley Race 6 | Esha
The ultra-impressive Esha makes it two-from-two to begin her promising career with a stunning wire-to-wire win for @lanedamian & @shanenicholsrac 😤
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/QCeMnozSmz— Racing.com (@Racing) August 9, 2025
Alabama Lass has that ability to sprint off a decent tempo and just runs well race after race in group company. Esha is a filly who could not have been more impressive in her two runs to date. The fact the last demolition job came at this track is a big tick also. This is much harder but the sky looks the limit for her. Big fan of (14) Niance but the gate is the query, hard to see her not being wide. Great strike rate (11:7:1:0). (11) Skybird was an exceptional Group 1 winner back in Feb. Sharp work in recent trial and she might be one of the strongest late if they go too hard. (15) La Dorada was an exceptional 2YO. Probably wants further but big odds for exotics.
Gibbo’s Top 4
(12) Alabama Lass
(16) Esha
(11) Skybird
(14) Niance
Dean Watling
A different edition of the Group 1 Moir Stakes with the shift in programming. Runs in transit overall look key to winning this year’s event, happy to attack this race with a two-pronged bet. (7) Baraqiel looks to get the run of the race from gate 10, unbeaten first and second up and also over 1000m. The other galloper I like is (14) Niance, she may need a touch more luck to offset the draw but is set for this race and has that 1000m form on the board. I respect (12) Alabama Lass, tricky gate and will have to withstand some pressure early, as well as ticking the 1000m for the first time. The old boy (1) Rothfire has claims also; he’ll need a sharp first 200m to find cover, but in a field of up-and-comers, he’s the established G1 sprinter.
Dean’s Top 4
(7) Baraqiel
(14) Niance
(12) Alabama Lass
(1) Rothfire
Suggested Bet – Baraqiel WIN / Niance WIN
Mitch Lewis
The theme of this race is clearly all about speed and the race map looks the key for a lot of runners here who may be vying for position. (7) Baraqiel impressed when resuming over this track/trip. He races well at The Valley and may find a nice position off the hot tempo. (10) Arabian Summer looks as if she will get race map advantages from the inside barrier, she may settle in just off the speed and do no work to find that position, also boasts a strong (3:2-1-0) when first up. (9) Oak Hill won over this track/trip first up into his prep, was well supported last start but had little luck in run. He will be back in running and may need luck, but a fast tempo early may give him a chance. (14) Niance flies first up having won 4/4 when fresh and she does have speed to burn, giving her a strong chance, but the wider barrier feels the risk and she may need luck early.
Mitch’s Top 4
(7) Baraqiel
(10) Arabian Summer
(9) Oak Hill
(14) Niance
Betting Strategy – Having Baraqiel as the main play in the race, but don’t want to be letting Arabian Summer & Oak Hill go around with nothing on both around the $20 mark.
Matt Welsh
Not a strong Group 1 but a great betting race.
They will go like the clappers here. (2) Midwest has speed to burn, with (1) Rothfire, (4) Golden Boom, (12) Alabama Lass and (16) Esha all right there. They should fly.
Think (10) Arabian Summer is over the odds. She can get a suck run from gate one and, if Harry Coffey finds clean air on the bend, she can be strong late while others are gasping. She flies fresh, her jump-outs have been good and she has the talent to win this. Gate one has produced three of the past six winners. (11) Skybird is the best horse in the race for mine. She had a few favours when winning the Lightning first-up in the autumn, but still had the talent to capitalise. Jump-outs have been good and she should relish the strong tempo. (7) Baraqiel will need a good ride from the gate and probably wants 1200m, but he’s classy and will be super strong late while others wilt. 3YOs have a good record here: She Will Reign and Coolangatta (fillies) and Extreme Choice (colt). This is a big step up for (16) Esha and there’s plenty of pressure up front, but she’s untapped and can figure – though under the odds.
Selections
(10) Arabian Summer
(11) Skybird
(7) Baraqiel
(16) Esha
Betting Strategy – Backing (10) Arabian Summer and (11) Skybird.
