Alarm bells ringing for boom 3YO The Next Episode

Alarm bells were ringing for $2.8 million boom three-year-old The Next Episode at the trials on Friday.

We have a really strong profile on this horse from a trials perspective. His work in the autumn was terrific and he backed that up when he got to the races, winning both starts and showing why he is considered one of the more exciting three-year-olds in the country.

That autumn form has subsequently received a significant boost, too. Natural Fling, who finished second to The Next Episode in the Magic Millions National Classic on the Gold Coast, returned at Caulfield and bolted in first-up in the Quezette Stakes. It only strengthened the case that The Next Episode’s unbeaten campaign was built on genuinely strong form.

That is what made Friday’s trial particularly interesting, and concerning.

I was prepared to give The Next Episode a pass mark for his first trial this preparation. It was his first hit-out back and he was taking on horses that already had a trial under their belt, so there were legitimate excuses for him not being at his absolute best.

There weren’t the same excuses second time around.

With that first trial under his belt, you wanted to see him take a significant step forward. His fitness should have improved and, given what we know about his previous trial profile, I was expecting to see much more from him.

Instead, it was his work through and immediately after the line that concerned me most.

He looked particularly short in his action and pulled up very quickly after the post. That is something I always take notice of at the trials. You want to see a horse punch through the line, continue its momentum and work strongly beyond the winning post.

We didn’t see that from The Next Episode.

It certainly isn’t game over. He is an extremely talented horse and there could be any number of explanations for what we saw. He’s also under the care of Ciaron Maher, who is as good as we have in Australia.

Connections may elect to give him a short let-up and restart his preparation, while a gear change such as blinkers could also potentially sharpen him up.

But purely from a punting perspective, the warning signs are there.

If you have taken the $7 in futures markets for the Coolmore Stud Stakes, you would be feeling considerably less comfortable about that position after Friday’s trial.

And this is exactly why I believe trials remain such a pivotal tool for punters.

It isn’t simply about watching a horse win or lose a trial. By building a profile on a horse over time, you can compare its work from preparation to preparation and get a genuine indication of whether it has improved, held its level or potentially regressed.

The Next Episode gave us a terrific benchmark in the autumn. Right now, his work this preparation hasn’t measured up to it.

That doesn’t mean he can’t turn things around. But until he shows me otherwise, there are enough warning signs to be cautious.

For punters willing to put the work into trials and build those profiles, it remains a terrific edge. And it is an edge I don’t believe will ever erode.