Track Overview
Heavy 10 conditions await at Warrnambool and we’ll be favouring horses that have already proven themselves in the testing ground. Despite racing on heavy tracks for much of the season, the circuit has played fairly, with winners coming from all parts of the field rather than a distinct pattern emerging. The paddock sections used for the steeplechases are expected to be even heavier than the course proper, placing an even greater emphasis on stamina. This is the final jumps meeting of the season at the Bool and shapes as an excellent guide heading towards the Grand National carnival.
Race 1 – Maiden Hurdle – 3200m – 12:40pm
(4) Gripping
I’ve followed this horse throughout his campaign and he’s continued to improve with every run on the flat. His jumping trials have been very good, producing figures around Andy Win, and he’s already shown he handles the Heavy 10 at Warrnambool. Looks capable of making a winning start over the hurdles.
(2) Captain Electric
The standout wet tracker in the field with five heavy-track starts producing three wins. His latest Bendigo victory over 3600m carrying 60kg was dominant and he was eased down on the line. His hurdle trials have also been encouraging and he’s a fascinating debutant over the jumps.
(8) The Claimant
Beaten comfortably on hurdle debut at Warrnambool but struck a couple of handy types. Had two flat runs before a 10-length defeat in a BM115 hurdle here recently. Back in easier company and can be competitive again.
(7) Teewaters
Went chasing last start and performed fairly. Has shown enough ability over the hurdles to suggest he’ll appreciate the testing conditions. Hard to see him winning but he can sneak into the placings.
Race 2 – BM115 Hurdle – 3200m – 1:20pm
(3) Zinovation
Has continued to improve on the flat since January and his transition to jumping has been impressive. Rounded off his trials with a dominant 2.5-length maiden hurdle win on a Heavy 10 here last start. Pateman takes the ride and he looks one of the best bets of the day.
(1) Ferago
Produced an outstanding win at Casterton before making a few costly mistakes at Sandown, where he was still only beaten 3.75 lengths. Tuned up with a sound flat run at Geelong. Capable of bouncing back, although the very wet ground is the obvious query.
(4) Cherokee Brave
Thrown in the deep end on hurdle debut at Hamilton and wasn’t disgraced against quality opposition before falling at Terang. Has since trialled well and had two flat runs to rebuild fitness. Still learning but can be finishing strongly.
(2) Karburan
Impressive winner on debut but hasn’t quite gone on with it. A recent steeple trial may have sharpened him up, although he still needs to lift to be considered a leading chance.
Race 3 – Kevin Lafferty Hurdle – 3200m – 2:00pm
(1) Mr. Waterville
Excellent on debut when narrowly beaten on the opening day of the May Carnival before a dominant seven-length win in the Champion Novice Hurdle. Went on to claim the Australian Hurdle at Sandown, defeating Highland Blaze, then returned to the flat with a solid Flemington run, beaten only 3.7 lengths in a quality handicap. Loves Warrnambool and the heavy ground and looks very hard to beat.
(4) Ongatiti
Brilliant 10-length winner on debut during the May Carnival before finishing third behind Mr. Waterville on Day 3. Improved again to comfortably win a BM120 Hurdle at Sandown and has since had a quiet hurdle trial. Back to his favourite track and expected to run another big race.
(3) Andy Win
Won impressively on debut at Warrnambool before finding Ongatiti too good at Sandown. Returned to winning form carrying 72kg at Warrnambool a fortnight ago. Honest and consistent, although he’ll need another step forward against this company.
(5) Nassack Diamond
Talented hurdler searching for his best form. Ran well behind Captain Electric at Bendigo before a solid hurdle trial. Handles heavy ground and is capable of featuring in the finish.
Race 4 – Thackeray Steeplechase – 3450m – 2:40pm
(3) Golden Garden
Hard to oppose after his impressive Warrnambool Carnival victory, which he backed up with an all-the-way win at Casterton. Was scratched a fortnight ago so there’s a slight fitness query, but if everything is right he’s clearly the horse to beat.
(2) Castrofrancaru
Beginning to rediscover his best form. Struck trouble with EIPH when beaten by Stern Idol in the Brierly, didn’t handle Casterton, then bounced back with a strong closing effort behind Sing For Peace in the Australian Steeplechase at Sandown. Well weighted against several out-of-form rivals and represents excellent value.
(1) The Mighty Spar
Returned to form at Warrnambool a fortnight ago when finishing 2.5 lengths behind Bazini carrying 74.5kg. Drops nicely in the weights and should again be competitive.
(6) Mr Lincoln
Still chasing his first steeplechase win but hasn’t been far away in his past two starts over the bigger fences. Expect him to be hitting the line strongly.
Best Bet: Race 2 No.3 Zinovation
Next Best: Race 1 No.4 Gripping
Best Value: Race 4 No.2 Castrofrancaru
Early Quaddie
Race 1: 2, 4
Race 2: 3
Race 3: 1, 4
Race 4: 1, 2, 3
Multi
Mr. Waterville (1) – Win
Zinovation (3) – Win
Captain Electric (2) – Place
