Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Flemington.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced. Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played
Dave Pfundt’s assessment of how the track played:
20kmh moderate Northerly winds and not massively in play. Overall a fair, Good 3 surface. I did note that no leaders won on the circle, and only Another Wil placed – but they were going slowly in the early stages. Only Paradoxium led and won up the straight. As a collective, the straight races were more friendly to leaders/on-pacers (3/4 leaders placed in straight races, and only 3 horses who were in the top 3 at the 600m held on to place in circle races).
I do feel that is a pattern worth noting. They won from both sides of the field in the straight races, but in the circle races, it did seem to be a disadvantage to be hard on the fence. From the 18 place-getters in the circle races, only 2 found rails in run, 1 was 2 wide and 15 were 3+ horses wide rounding the home turn. This left me feeling that – for the circle races – the poor frequency of on-pacers in the place-getters was a notable pattern. Whether it was the Northerly wind, or slightly inferior lanes 1-2, I’m not sure.
Race 1
LD-S-8: -4.2L | LD-8-4: -7.3L | LD-4-F: +4.2L | WNR-4-F: +5.2L | WTS: 93.8 | WFA: 91.8
Makybe Diva Stakes Day opened with a compact field of six over the straight six, a race ultimately dominated by Danny O’Brien’s Jett Smash.
Jett Smash is a fascinating study in stride and cadence. Although he raced up to a mile in his second campaign, his cadence had always hinted that sprints would be his true domain. He possesses a remarkably short stride, yet compensates with extraordinary cadence, turning his legs over rapidly. Having posted a new best of 91.8, there is every reason to believe he can remain competitive in higher grades, particularly if afforded a favourable weight.
I would love to see him remain over 1100 and 1200 metres, and at a tight-turning track. There is a BM84 over 1200 metres at Mornington on Grand Final Day. That may well be where he is headed.
LD-S-8: +2L | LD-8-4: +0.3L | LD-4-F: -2L | WNR-4-F: -0.1L | WTS: 86.1 | WFA: 92.7
The Michael Moroney was fittingly won by champion New Zealand two-year-old filly Lara Antipova, bouncing back from a terrible run in the Quezette.
The pace was solid and remained so throughout. Put most simply, it was 2.1 lengths faster than typical to the 600-metre mark and 1.8 lengths slower than typical from the 600. There were no drastic improvements or regressions in speed throughout the race; it was controlled, so that is an appropriate measurement of the pace, even if it is simple.
Lara Antipova improved markedly from her Australian debut in the Quezette, where she was beaten 7.78 lengths by Natural Fling. There were whispers that the filly’s feet were not entirely sound first-up, and that must have improved, as the stable had the confidence to remove synthetic hoof filler and Equicast, and she improved by four lengths.
This is not a particularly strong race, though. For context, Pretty Baby ran to 100.3 in the Atlantic Jewel last start. Lara Antipova ran a rating of 92.7 on Saturday and would need to improve significantly to be a contender in the Thousand Guineas, which is where I would presume she is being targeted.
Harry Lime may be worth following. He was slow to begin and his chances were void thereafter. Typically he races on pace, so if he does not begin so slowly next start, he can improve drastically. He can go back in grade, too.
Unit Five should return to sprinting.
Race 3
LD-S-8: +2.3L | LD-8-4: -0.9L | LD-4-F: +1.3L | WNR-4-F: +3.6L | WTS: 92.4 | WFA: 98.6
Two fillies dominated the Cap D’Antibes, clearing out and drawing away from what was otherwise a basic group. Satono Glow and Over Excited are far from basic, however; both are genuine Coolmore Stakes contenders if they can continue to improve.
Satono Glow was a little slow to begin and was last at the 800-metre mark, racing 2.9 lengths slower than standard to that point, while the lead was 2.3 lengths faster than typical. From the 800, she quickened and sustained a tremendous speed to the finish. She is very good, and won with the clear insinuation that there is plenty more improvement to come.
Flemington R3 | Satono Glow
Satono Glow gets the better of Over Excited in a stirring finish to the Cap D’Antibes Stakes 🌟@jamieleemelham in the saddle for @JohnOSheaRacing 🙌
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy pic.twitter.com/2c6RMpXkL4— Racing.com (@Racing) September 12, 2026
She has raced only four times, but has improved with almost every run:
86.3 on debut, 94.3 in the Thoroughbred Breeders’ Stakes, 90 when terribly unlucky in the Percy Sykes, and now 98.6 first-up in the Cap D’Antibes.
My Gladiola won this race last year with 95.8, and she’s now a Group 1 winner, so this is truly an exciting figure. Satono Glow will more than likely be toward the top of the market in the Danehill Stakes on the third of October, if she goes that way.
Over Excited was well punted after a brilliant debut at Geelong. She ran a very similar rating to My Gladiola in this race last year, except she ran second. This is only her second start, so she can improve. She is remarkably professional for a filly with just two starts to her name.
If she cannot improve to a Coolmore Stakes-competitive level, there is always the option of the Red Roses. The stable won it last year with Point Barrow.
Race 4
LD-S-8: +4L | LD-8-4: -0.5L | LD-4-F: -2.3L | WNR-4-F: -2.3L | WTS: 90.2 | WFA: 96
Paradoxium occupies a middle ground among recent Poseidon Stakes winners. Legacy Bound posted 94.4 last year; Growing Empire ran 98.6 before starting favourite in the Manikato; Archo Narcho recorded 97.2 in 2023; and Buenos Noches managed 92.5 in 2022. With a rating of 96, Paradoxium is an average winner by these standards. He has returned a new career best first-up as a three-year-old, which bodes well.
Satono Glow was, and perhaps is, objectively better, but this performance renders Paradoxium somewhat intriguing ahead of the Coolmore. Experience at Flemington on the straight course can only enhance his prospects, though he still sits some way down the hierarchy of Coolmore Stakes contenders.
The pace was fierce over the first 500 metres. Paradoxium and Jason Collett raced five lengths quicker than typical up to the 600-metre mark. Such a tempo, of course, could not be sustained by horses that don’t have the Group 1 gear, and the pace inevitably deteriorated thereafter.
Mbube and Big Sky both made respectable returns to racing, but each would need a considerable amount of improvement to be competitive in the Coolmore Stakes, their logical target. I doubt the winner of the Coolmore resides in this field; I would be shocked if it were so.
Race 5
LD-S-8: +21.1L | LD-8-4: -8.7L | LD-4-F: -7.3L | WNR-4-F: -0.9L | WTS: 96.8 | WFA: 94.3
Shockletz was very much the strongest stayer in the Archer, and the punters rightfully identified that, firming from $5.00 into a starting price of $3.10 on the exchange.
G3 The Archer | Shockletz
Shockletz was smashed in betting and books her ticket to the Melbourne Cup in impressive fashion 🏆
Ridden perfectly by @HTCoffey for @cmaherracing 👌
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpoAdc6 pic.twitter.com/igHZIVvDAy— Racing.com (@Racing) September 12, 2026
The pace was set by the runaway leader, Chief Little Rock, who did his best Pride of Jenni impression, racing 21 lengths faster than typical up to the 800-metre mark. Nearco Frod led the rest of the field, racing seven lengths faster than typical to that point. Shockletz was brilliantly positioned by Harry Coffey relative to the pace, and she capitalised, racing clear and returning to something like her best, all of which have come over a mile and a half. She is a mare capable of running well over shorter distances, but she is much better over this trip; she is unbeaten over 2400 metres and further.
That bodes well for her tilt at a Melbourne Cup, which is where she will be targeted, but this is not good enough for that. She will need to improve, and I do not see it. Perhaps a top-ten chance.
Race 6
LD-S-8: +4.8L | LD-8-4: +1.9L | LD-4-F: -4.2L | WNR-4-F: -0.8L | WTS: 98.6 | WFA: 94.9
The Tontonan Stakes was won by Welcometotheshow for Tyler Donaldson-Aitken, who has just five horses in work. The stable star is a winning machine, and ran to exactly his peak to stave off Cote Atlantique, who was finishing quickly.
This was a perfectly executed ride by Craig Newitt, settling midfield behind a pace that was fast. The opening quarter-mile was run at an even tempo, but the speed then quickened quite drastically thereafter, with a 6.8-length improvement in pace between the 1000 and 600-metre mark.
I am sure this race will not produce bad form by any means, but there is not a runner in particular that is overly intriguing as a horse to follow.
Race 7
LD-S-8: -3.3L | LD-8-4: +1L | LD-4-F: -0.6L | WNR-4-F: +2.7L | WTS: 97.1 | WFA: 93.2
Losesomewinmore won the Bobbie Lewis as the well-backed favourite and former Everest hopeful Oliveanotherday fell by the wayside.
The opening quarter-mile was quite slow; there was no apparent intent to lead, and Hedged landed in front without having to overexert at all. The pace quickened thereafter and then again between the 400 and 200, where the race was won. Losesomewinmore reeled off an exceptional sectional split, the second fastest of the meeting in that section.
G2 Bobbie Lewis Quality | Losesomewinmore
Losesomewinmore wins his sixth race down the Flemington straight and his first at Group level! @CWilliamsJockey aboard for @RJollyRacing 🤝
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy pic.twitter.com/1rKuleLcN6— Racing.com (@Racing) September 12, 2026
He was well treated under the handicap and ran to a figure slightly below his best to win on Saturday, after accounting for weights carried.
Hedged was excellent and proved that he has lost nothing after a below-par run in the Carlyon Stakes. This was a nice building run toward the Manikato, perhaps the Meteorite, and maybe even the Magic Millions in January.
The heavily supported favourite, Oliveanotherday, was severely disappointing. He was expected to run to a mark of 104 at the weights carried on Saturday, a figure that would have rendered him competitive in The Everest, besides Ka Ying Rising, but that took something of a hit on Saturday, managing only 93.2. He is very good; there is no doubt about that, he still ran to 100.2 in the Heath, it is just that the prospect of him being a 103+ sprinter may not be quite so strong after Saturday’s race. There were no obvious excuses for him, and people will suggest it might have been because it was his first time at Flemington, but such things largely do not matter; he should have been able to win on Saturday regardless of the configuration of the track.
Race 8
LD-S-8: -8.3L | LD-8-4: -2.4L | LD-4-F: +6L | WNR-4-F: +6.7L | WTS: 106 | WFA: 106
Sheza Alibi was in a world of her own in the Makybe Diva Stakes, racing to a level of 106 and winning by two and three-quarter lengths.
The pace was quite pedestrian up to the 600-metre mark. The race was rather stagnant until that point, and it was messy toward the front end. There was a jostling of position as they rounded the final turn, which gave Sheza Alibi a terrific lead into the race, and she quickly turned it into a procession thereafter. Her acceleration was instantaneous; she quickened her speed drastically between the 600 and 400, and then improved it once more between the 400 and 200.
She would make the Cox Plate a far more interesting betting race if she were in it, but unfortunately she will not be. What a blight on the sport that is. Instead, she will win the Golden Eagle with ease, and who really even cares? But who is to blame Moody, Coleman and Nofke? The race is worth $10 million, I don’t.
Delius was as good as he could have been in a slowly run mile. Perhaps there will be a view that he was poor, being beaten by Autumn Boy and Another Will, but he is a mile-and-a-half horse forced to race in events like this because of the Australian racing calendar.
He is on track to win the Cox Plate, but my biggest worry for him is if the Cox Plate develops into a race devoid of pace. He won the Queen Elizabeth so comprehensively because the pace was brutally fast, and he overpowered Autumn Glow after she beat him for speed between the 600 and 400. If the pace is slow, there is no guarantee that he returns to the 106+ range of which he is capable. It is very much a shame that we do not have a Group 1 weight-for-age mile-and-a-half race for him, not that we would be able to get a full field in that anyway. Nonetheless, he remains Cox Plate favourite, and my view on him on Cox Plate Day, and whether I back him or not, is entirely dependent on the pace scenario.
Half Yours was excellent in his return; he finished well and is on track for another Melbourne Cup tilt. He will be so well treated under the weights this year, which will be his undoing. I think it will be an international that wins it this year, which one? Not sure, but it will be trained by Joseph O’Brien.
She’s A Hustler was terrific; she hit the line well and hinted that she is well back on track for the Caulfield Cup after a poor winter campaign in Queensland.
Autumn Boy was excellent from the rear of the field and was only bettered by his old rival Sheza Alibi over the last 600 metres. I hear he is returning to Sydney for the Epsom, so he must be an enormous chance in that, but that is not my domain.
Race 9
LD-S-8: -4.9L | LD-8-4: +0.1L | LD-4-F: -0.4L | WNR-4-F: +5.3L | WTS: 93.1 | WFA: 91.6
Pondolowie won the Let’s Elope in an extraordinary finish, and a somewhat deceiving one. Typically, when a horse comes from as far back as she did, it is because the pace is deteriorating drastically, not in this case; she ran her final 200 metres in 11 seconds flat.
I would temper what was a sensational win with the fact that it is Pondolowie, and she had not won in 706 days before Saturday for a reason.
This race has rated quite poorly, and I would not be overly interested in it as a form reference in future.
Race 10
LD-S-8: -4.5L | LD-8-4: +1.9L | LD-4-F: +1.5L | WNR-4-F: +1.8L | WTS: 97.2 | WFA: 93.4
Makybe Diva Stakes Day was concluded by a trifecta of present and former Ciaron Maher stalwarts, but it was St Lawrence who was the best of the three, winning for Gavin Bedggood and running to his best figure since winning the Little Dance in 2024.
The pace was very slow up to the 1000-metre mark and was quickened thereafter. St Lawrence was given a terrific ride, settling in the one-out, one-back position, and went on to win quite comfortably.
Storm Leopard was well fancied by punters and was able to cross and lead at his own leisure; he quickly folded thereafter and was terrible, if I am honest. There were no obvious excuses, but the stable was asked to provide a vet certificate, so perhaps there will be something to come from that.
