As the MRC looks to restore punter confidence following a bitterly disappointing track at Sandown last weekend (yes, I lost), the return of the rail to the true position for the first time since March 21 presents a fitting opportunity to begin.
The Bel Esprit Stakes meeting is an excellent day’s racing, with good fields and a number of great betting contests.
The feature itself is particularly intriguing, headlined by what I would regard as a dodgy favourite in Bustling. He returned well off a 600-day absence, but did so under near-perfect conditions. Five furlongs, a pristine surface with the right amount of cushion, and an even pace. Under those circumstances, he performed admirably to finish fourth carrying 62kg. He drops considerably to 54kg in this, which is a significant advantage, though only one of many variables. This will put far greater pressure on his conditioning, and if he is to win, it would take a masterful training performance from Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr.
The runner of most interest is Recommendation, who reaffirmed his capability at this level with a good run in Adelaide last start, albeit short of his absolute peak. He is not required to produce his best to be competitive here, and if he were to, he would more than likely put a space in this field. He has been well supported since markets opened, and any early edge has largely dissipated. Should he ease on race day, he would look well placed in my betslip come 4pm on Saturday afternoon.
Beyond that, there is limited appeal, despite a concerted effort to take on the favourite.
Now, onto the bets…
In race seven, Tres Magnifique is favourite, which is entirely understandable, having won three from as many starts this campaign.
She has started at prohibitive odds in each of those runs, and that may now be exerting some influence on her current price as it stands.
From a time perspective, she was afforded an excellent opportunity to record a significantly faster time overall and win by a wider margin at Caulfield last start. She did not. Notably, Sun Setting, albeit bludging at the rear, closed more than a second faster than her over the final four hundred metres. At this stage of her career, I am not convinced she possesses a higher ceiling than what she produced thus far.
Rosberg is the most difficult runner to assess across Saturday’s nine-race program, returning gelded after a dismal performance in Adelaide. That said, his trainer continues to claim him the second coming, and the market has consistently held him in high regard. He is deeply uncomfortable to oppose, but oppose him I will.
High On The Hill is another that is a similarly challenging runner to back against. He was heavily supported to take on older horses in Adelaide last start and delivered convincingly. His ratings are strong, but there is always an opportunity cost when assessing exposed talent. He was given every chance to showcase himself in Adelaide, and did, but perhaps not to a level that justifies his current position in the market.
Bred ‘em All, a younger half-brother to Sabaj, also comes through the Adelaide carnival and has performed to a commendable level in races that were not entirely exposing. I could not dismiss him outright, though equally I find him fairly assessed at his current odds. Should he drift into double figures, he may become an acceptable runner to have a saving bet on.
Which finally brings us to a lightly raced Godolphin three-year-old, out of a Group 1-winning mare, who has run the hands off the clock in two starts since returning gelded. If that doesn’t get the blood pumping, very little will. Cabriole looks destined for high-class performance, and is already trending in that direction. In my view, he is the best horse in this field already, despite yet to be afforded an efficient pace to showcase his talent. What’s more is that he has produced scintillating time figures over five furlongs, which would be a surprise if that were to prove his optimal distance. By Lonhro out of Flit, a Group 1-winning miler, there is every indication that six to seven furlongs will prove his sweet spot over time. I marked him inside 3/1, and there is far, far better available. He may be no certainty, but he is, unquestionably, an outstanding gamble.
Race three is a highly competitive contest for three-year-olds over seven furlongs. I could not confidently dismiss any of the three leading chances, though I am of the view that Celtics remains unexposed and may be building toward a peak performance, fifth-up into his second preparation and rising to this distance for the first time.
He was well supported over six furlongs down the straight at his most recent start but found himself in an effectively unwinnable position, settling last and on the opposite side to where the race developed.
Despite that, he stopped the clock almost half a second faster than any other runner over the concluding furlong, suggesting he will appreciate an added two-hundred metres. The projected rating from that performance measures up well against this group, too.
From barrier one, I am hopeful he can settle more prominently than in prior runs. If he can, he has the capacity to elevate to a level that would make him 5/1, rather than the 8/1 currently available.
Bel Mezyaan, Yes Yoshi, and Clevor Trevor are all reasonably priced, but the gap between them and Celtics seems overstated. At 8/1, Celtics appeals as a worthwhile gamble.
Race five is an extraordinarily compelling one. The favourite, See That Storm, arrives in Australia with a notably high Timeform rating relative to the official mark he has been allotted. Accordingly, he carries just 54kg and, on a purely weights-and-measures basis, must be a weighted certainty. Racing, however, is unfortunately not so straightforward. Saturday’s conditions are expected to be on the worse side of soft, and with El Rocko engaged on the quick turnaround, this is assured to be a searching test for a horse returning from a ten-month absence.
It may well be the most intriguing race on the day, not least because See That Storm was beaten by a horse by the name of Fox Legacy. At his subsequent start to defeating See That Storm, Fox Legacy produced a figure that would render him competitive in a Cox Plate. He was then pitched into the Champions Stakes at Ascot, starting 30/1 against Calandagan, Ombudsman and Delacroix, and finished sixth. That is the calibre of form surrounding See That Storm. Of course, Fox Legacy’s subsequent form does not retrospectively elevate the form of See That Storm, but it is a clue nonetheless.
As much as I would like to back him to run to his glaringly obvious advantage, there are simply too many unknowns at play. He’s the most interesting runner across the day, but not one I could confidently back under the circumstances.
Suggested bets:
Best Bet: Cabriole @ $7.50 in R7
Next best: Celtics @ $9.00 in R3
