Epsom Handicap 1600m – Group 1
The Randwick mile is famous for producing some of the best races in the country. The key reason is the nature of the 1600m start – with around 500m until the first turn, every horse generally gets its chance regardless of barrier. What it also ensures is a genuine tempo, as those drawn wide are forced to roll forward to find positions in transit.
This year’s $2 favourite Autumn Glow has come up with barrier 14 of 14. At first glance, that looks horrid – “the car park” as many would say. But history tells a different story. Time and again, wide draws have proven an advantage in big Randwick mile races, allowing horses to build momentum rather than being cluttered inside.
Epsom Barriers.
2024 – Ceolwulf B14
2020 – Probabeel B15 (Kmac)
2019 – Kolding B12
2018 – Hartnell B10
2016 – Hauraki B10
2015 – Winx B12
2014 – He’s Your Man B10
2013 – Boban B10
2011 – Secret Admirer B16Randwick Rail True + 1600m + wide draws = Success ✅ #Epsom…
— Dean Watling (@deanwatling) September 30, 2025
Punters will be hoping for a repeat of Kerrin McEvoy’s 2020 ride on Probabeel, when he guided him to victory from barrier 15. Another factor to note: when the rail is true, lanes 5 and wider are often the place to be in the straight, again favouring those drawn out.
SIX OUT OF SIX 🤯
Autumn Glow does it easily again! She toys with them in the G2 Theo Marks on her way to the Epsom Handicap, how far can she go this spring? pic.twitter.com/1DSsnAyiBV
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 13, 2025
Verdict: In this year’s race there looks to be above-average tempo up front. Importantly, much of that speed is drawn wide. This should allow runners with tactical speed drawn out there – Autumn Glow, Magnatear, and Yellow Brick – to push forward early and find a spot.
The flip side is that those drawn inside but lacking early speed – Willydoit, Verona Rosa, and Swift Falcon – risk being forced back and cluttered up along the fence.
Winners: Autumn Glow (14), Ceolwulf (9), Pericles (5), Fully Lit (11), Encap (6)
Losers: Swiftfalcon (4), El Castello (1), Verona Rose (3), Willydoit (2)
Metropolitan Handicap 2400m – Group 1
This looks one of the stronger betting editions of the Metropolitan, with form lines converging from several different paths. We have Soul Of Spain, a dominant Newcastle Cup winner who came via Queensland, Birdman, last start G3 Kingston Town winner, and Changingoftheguard, who claimed the Tatts Cup all the way.
Unlike the mile, barriers matter greatly at 2400m. The Randwick start gives just 150m before the first turn, meaning those drawn wide often have to work overtime early to slot in. History is clear: 13 of the past 20 winners have jumped from barriers 1–6, and 13 of the past 20 carried 54kg or less.
It sets up a strong historical pattern that punters should respect.
Verdict:
With the sticky run to the first turn, the map is always crucial. On paper, there doesn’t appear to be a huge amount of genuine speed up front. Glory Daze and Changingoftheguard look the two likely speed influences, while Juja Kibo and Piggyback are drawn wide and could roll across.
The saving grace for those outside may be the lack of tactical speed from the inside runners such as Travolta, Etna Rosa, and Athabascan. Overall, it shapes as a moderate tempo.
Winners: Vauban (7), Changingoftheguard (8), Soul Of Spain (11), Royal Supremacy (9), Wyclif (6), Arapaho (13)
Losers: Travolta (1), Piggyback (14), More Felons (20), Birdman (17), Adelaide River (18)
