Winx Stakes Big Bets: TAB Punters Back Autumn Glow

The first Group 1 of the new season has delivered a race worthy of much deeper into the spring, with Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi set to clash for the first time in Saturday’s Winx Stakes at Royal Randwick.

The market says it’s a match race. But is it?

Autumn Glow has established herself as a clear favourite, Sheza Alibi is the obvious danger and then there’s a significant gap to the rest.

But this is no ordinary supporting cast. The 14-horse field has collectively won 28 Group 1 races and almost $60 million in prizemoney, so if the two headline mares aren’t quite at their best first-up, there are certainly horses capable of upsetting the apple cart.

For now, however, TAB punters are increasingly convinced Autumn Glow is the one to beat.

It has been a relatively quiet weekend on the big-bet front to date, but the Winx Stakes has understandably generated the most interest.

The standout wager so far is $3,000 at $1.85 on Autumn Glow, the biggest single bet across the weekend action supplied by TAB.

Interestingly, the early money went the other way.

TAB Analyst Tim Owens said Sheza Alibi was initially the horse punters wanted once it became clear she would take her place in the Group 1.

“Originally the money was for Sheza Alibi once confirmed she’d accept. She got in as short as $2.50 in All-In betting, but is now back to $3.30. Since final field however, Autumn Glow has held close to twice as much. This has seen her firm from $1.90 to $1.75 after touching $2 at one point.”

It’s been a significant swing.

The initial push for Sheza Alibi has subsided and, since final fields and barriers, punters have increasingly sided with Chris Waller’s star mare.

And that sets up the fascinating question heading into Saturday: is the market right to treat this as a match race?

Autumn Glow brings an extraordinary record of 11 wins from 12 starts, her only defeat coming when third in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2000m last autumn.

Sheza Alibi arrives off five consecutive wins, culminating in a dominant Doncaster Mile victory at Randwick.

But beyond the big two sits a field loaded with Group 1 quality. If either mare is vulnerable first-up, there are more than enough accomplished horses waiting to spoil the party.

Quieter start for the big punters

Away from the Winx Stakes, it has been a relatively subdued start to the weekend for TAB’s bigger punters, although there have been a few willing to step in.

At Morphettville, one punter has invested $2,000 at $1.95 on Amalfi Dreamer in Race 4, while the biggest bet outside the Winx Stakes has come at Sandown, where $3,000 at $3.50 has been placed on Think Giant in Race 3.

There has also been some interest at bigger odds at Randwick. One punter has had $1,000 at $7.50 on Gatwick in Race 6, while another is chasing a sizeable result in Race 7 with $1,000 each-way on Coco Affair at $34/$8.

Combined with the $3,000 wager on Autumn Glow, the five notable early bets supplied by TAB account for $11,000 in win investments, plus the $1,000 place component of the Coco Affair bet.

The serious money may still be to come as Saturday approaches.

But for now, the market has spoken in the race everyone wants to see.

Autumn Glow is the clear elect. Sheza Alibi is the challenger. Now we find out whether it’s really a match race, or whether one of their highly credentialled rivals can upset the apple cart.