Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 3 – (2) Mcwoody
- Next Best: Race 6 – (1) Legacy Bound
- Best Roughie: Race 8 – (5) Super Smink
- Other Bet: Race 7 – (2) Getta Good Feeling
- Other Bet: Race 8 – (3) Generosity
Track
- Clear and sunny conditions are forecast for race day and the days leading up. The track will likely be a Good 4 to start, with strong potential to improve to a Good 3 at some stage.
- The rail returns to the true position after being pushed out at the previous two meetings here.
- The course proper is generally a fair track, although when the surface firms up the inside lanes can hold together well and favour on-speed runners.
- Keep in mind starts at 1200m and below are from a chute start, so you can be slightly more forgiving of wide barriers in these races.
Stats that matter
- Local trainer Andrew Gluyas is in super form and has two strong chances in some of the group races. He has produced 19 winners from his previous 100 starters, with a POT return of +29.2%.
- Jordan Childs looks the most in-form jockey at this meeting, having ridden 23 winners from his last 100 rides for a POT of +30.6%. Former local Lachlan Neindorf comes back home in strong form, with 18 winners from his last 100 rides and a POT of +19.3%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Lightly raced (7) Vangogh Bankcheque was good in a stronger race two starts ago when finishing 1.5L behind Group winner Legacy Bound, which reads as strong form for this. He had excuses last start and needs some luck from a wide barrier, but looks the runner with the most upside. (6) Redders should find this easier than his previous runs, including when second behind Shadavar two starts back, and can improve with a better set-up today. (3) Hypernova had no luck when resuming and never got a clear run in the straight. Fitter second up, he can improve, but will need to be positive from barrier 2 and use that to settle closer in the run. (1) Dobbinair hit the line strongly last start, so the rise to 1200m will suit, and he should get a good run from barrier 3.
Selections:
(7) Vangogh Bankcheque
(6) Redders
(3) Hypernova
(1) Dobbinair
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
Expecting (1) Ole Go can go one better here and turn the tables on (6) Verzain, who defeated him last start. Ole Go jumps from barrier 1 and with on-speed racing expected to be an advantage, he should get his chance. He is fitter for this and may be better suited to holding his ground late. Verzain had the fitness edge last start and was strongest through the line, so the rise to 1200m should suit him at this stage of the prep. (2) Harry Met Sally won his maiden over this distance two starts back, then tackled a stronger race up in trip last start and ran a close second. Dropping back to 1200m should suit. (5) Vandaross has been competitive in similar-level two-year-old races this prep, maps well from barrier 3 and looks likely to get a soft run.
Selections:
(1) Ole Go
(6) Verzain
(2) Harry Met Sally
(5) Vandaross
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(2) Mcwoody was an easy winner here last start in the Listed Port Adelaide Guineas over 1800m. He was strong through the line, so the rise to 2000m should pose no issue, and he looks likely to get a soft run. There does not appear to be a great deal of speed in the race, so jumping from barrier 1 should see him land in a strong position. (1) Autumn Mystery is a proven stayer, having won a Group 3 over 2000m last prep. He has been below his best this time in, but dropping back to his own age group could see him improve and recapture his better form, although the wide barrier is not ideal. (5) Engine Of War reaches peak fitness third up and can push forward in a race that looks likely to be run at only a moderate tempo. (12) Boomeroo was only fair last start but looks better suited back to this distance and, from barrier 2 with a light weight, should get a favourable run.
Selections:
(2) Mcwoody
(1) Autumn Mystery
(5) Engine Of War
(12) Boomeroo
Suggested Bet: (2) Mcwoody WIN
Race 4
(2) On Display was well supported last start but never got into the race and had some excuses. She can bounce back here with a set-up that suits better, maps well from a low barrier and gets back onto dry ground. Ben Melham hopping back aboard is also a plus given their record together. (4) Cilacap improved nicely last start when rising to 1600m, stays at the trip and maps for a favourable run in the front half of the field. (3) Blindedbythelight ran a close second in a Group 2 when resuming and can go one better with a suitable set-up. She is fitter second up, jumps from barrier 1 and the rise in distance looks ideal. (9) World’s My Oyster was disappointing last start but had excuses. Her form prior was strong and she goes well at this track, so she can bounce back.
Selections:
(2) On Display
(4) Cilacap
(3) Blindedbythelight
(9) World’s My Oyster
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(6) New York Lustre sets up well in a big field from barrier 4 and should find herself landing in a good position without too much trouble. She resumes here and has an excellent fresh record, looking ready to go off two strong trials. Local (2) Watchme Win put in a strong performance when resuming to run a close second in The Irwin Stakes. He has a good record at this track and distance, but needs to overcome a poor second-up record and a wide barrier. (15) Grand Larceny also resumes and is capable of winning fresh. He should appreciate the conditions and can measure up if he runs to his best ratings. (4) Niance is another resuming runner with an excellent first-up record and is well suited at this trip. The wide barrier makes things tricky, but if she gets some early luck she can figure in the finish.
Selections:
(6) New York Lustre
(2) Watchme Win
(15) Grand Larceny
(4) Niance
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(1) Legacy Bound was an easy winner first up this prep and was well supported next start, but performed below his best. He had excuses there and likely did not appreciate the heavy conditions. He can bounce back in a much better set-up here, gets a dry track and maps to settle near the lead from barrier 1. His record at 1200m is strong and he looks the one to beat. (2) Tycoon Star was costly last start when laying out in the straight and being caught near the line, making it two seconds in a row. He is at peak fitness third up and rising in trip, and can improve again. (10) Thanks Gorgeous defeated both Legacy Bound and Tycoon Star in her last-start Flemington win. She looks capable of handling the rise in distance and maps well from barrier 3, potentially at overs. (9) Inkaruna had excuses last start at Randwick and her form prior to that was strong, so she can improve sharply.
Selections:
(1) Legacy Bound
(2) Tycoon Star
(10) Thanks Gorgeous
(9) Inkaruna
Suggested Bet: (1) Legacy Bound WIN
Race 7
(2) Getta Good Feeling looks to have been set for this race. She has kicked off the campaign with two wins and now lands here at peak fitness third up. There are no concerns about the 2000m trip given she won The Wakeful in the spring before starting below even money in the VRC Oaks. She gets a soft map from barrier 5 and has every chance. (5) Mating Call looks the best of the local hopes after hitting the line strongly to win The Auraria Stakes last start, and the rise in distance should suit. (11) Kazaru also hit the line well in The Auraria Stakes. She came into that race off a Tasmanian Oaks win and may still have improvement to come fitter and up in trip again.
Selections:
(2) Getta Good Feeling
(3) Salty Pearl
(5) Mating Call
(11) Kazaru
Suggested Bet: (2) Getta Good Feeling WIN
Race 8
This is a strong edition of The Sangster and the map makes it tricky, especially if we are on a quick track by this stage of the day. (5) Super Smink can run a big race off the back of her win in The Irwin Stakes. That performance was particularly impressive given she is generally better second up and over further, so this race always looked like her grand final second up over 1200m. She is capable of producing a career peak. (3) Generosity is in super form. A wide barrier was not ideal last start, but she still hit the line strongly, and the rise to 1200m is ideal. She can be slow away, so the start is critical, but if she jumps cleanly and makes use of barrier 1 she sets up nicely in the expected conditions. (2) Charm Stone won this race last year and returns after running a close second to Jigsaw at Caulfield, which reads as strong form. The wide barrier is not ideal, but if the early tempo is only moderate she can cross and find a spot. (1) Skybird is the highest-rated runner in the race and her TJ Smith run was excellent. She may be better suited in wetter ground, but her class keeps her firmly in the mix.
Selections:
(5) Super Smink
(3) Generosity
(2) Charm Stone
(1) Skybird
Suggested Bet: (5) Super Smink WIN and (3) Generosity WIN
Race 9
(1) Chicago Storm can peak here third up as he often takes a few runs to find his best, but third up is where he typically strikes his top level. He drops in grade and should get a suitable run in the front half of the field. (10) Scandalize is in career-best form, having won two in a row and rated highly in both. He rises in class again, but maps for a run of the race and is capable. (5) Pudding was only fair last start but had an awkward map from a wide barrier. He draws much better here and can improve with the right run. (6) Watadeel has been competitive in similar races at his past two starts, looks better suited at 1600m and should appreciate the Morphettville set-up.
Selections:
(1) Chicago Storm
(10) Scandalize
(5) Pudding
(6) Watadeel
Suggested Bet: No bet
