Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 4 (2) Mukhtalif
Next Best: Race 6 (1) Deal Done Fast
Best Roughies (worth a spec at odds):
Race 6 (13) Erupt / (17) I Belong
Race 7 (1) Land Legend
Turf Talk
- Rail back to the true off a four-week break.
- Expect the track to be in excellent order. Should be a Good 4 up to a Good 3.
- Rail true generally gives all horses their chance.
- Forecast 20-30km/h northeasterlies won’t have a huge impact, but it is a wind that hits leaders in their face as they start the sweeping home bend.
Race 1
Speed looks solid. (8) Flamin’ Romans and (6) Xtra Rush look the most likely leaders. (9) Kurakka also presses forward.
Hateful race.
I’ve been too often sucked into (8) Bluestone, yet here we are again, albeit I won’t be betting in the race. This is his chance to get an overdue win. He’s down in the weights and, while he’s up in class, it really isn’t a strong BM84. He has trialled well between runs and blinkers go back on. Ticks a lot of boxes.
(9) Kurakka comes through a race at Caulfield won by (4) The Western Front and I thought he was good there. He has now had three runs in Australia and looks ready to peak on Saturday. A 3kg swing on The Western Front, and 1.5kg on Xtra Rush, who he narrowly beat in that race, is a bonus. Maps nicely.
The Western Front was heavily backed in that race at Caulfield and duly got the cash. That was his first go past 2000m, but I’m not sure it was a great guide into his staying prowess as they didn’t go hard. If they make this a genuine staying contest it will prove an interesting test.
Selections:
(8) Bluestone
(9) Kurakka
(6) Xtra Rush
(7) Samuel Langhorne
Suggested Bet: No thank you.
Race 2
Reckon there are a few holes in some of the key formlines leading into this, most notably the 1400m 3YO race here at Flemington won by Exit that a number of these come through.
(6) Carriedo is airborne. Good win at Geelong two back when stepping to 1300m and breaking her maiden, with plenty of subsequent winners well beaten. Then she belted her rivals at Sandown last time out. Speed looks solid so she should secure a nice position in the running line, just forward of midfield.
(8) Concord Connie has always shown terrific ability in jump-outs and she delivered on that with her impressive maiden win at Pakenham last start. The second and third out of that race have since won very well. A wide draw probably sees her get back, but she will be strong late. Short enough, but in the mix.
Of those coming through that Flemington 1400m race, (4) Café Au Lait looks the best placed. She has trialled nicely between runs and maps for the softest run you could imagine.
(9) Star Of Omaha has plenty of talent but her last two have been pretty plain. Draws well and 1400m looks better than the mile of her last two starts.
Selections:
(6) Carriedo
(8) Concord Connie
(4) Café Au Lait
(9) Star Of Omaha
Suggested Bet: Backing Carriedo.
Race 3
Speed OK. (3) Drumfire presses forward if he jumps cleanly out to 1400m. (1) Blind Raise shouldn’t be far away from a good draw, nor (8) Image Artist who steps sharply in trip. (6) Cignetti led on debut and knocked up, so it will be interesting to see if they try and ride him quietly from the wide draw getting out to 1400m.
(2) Seraphox brings a different formline. He sat deep throughout when finishing alongside the likes of Hidrix and Tornado Valley in the Todman on debut. Then he stepped to 1300m where he over-raced a bit in behind the speed before being held up in the straight and charging late to win. It was a good win given the second horse was able to build momentum the entire straight. I like him drawing middle of the line, given how keen he got in behind them last start.
(1) Blind Raise impressed on debut at Sandown. He lobbed into a lovely spot in the run before showing a nice turn of foot late in the race. Draws ideally, the big track will suit him and he has plenty of upside.
(3) Drumfire was a late scratching at Caulfield recently when playing up in the stalls and he’s been back to the jump-outs between runs. Draws to land on speed, potentially leading with Meech up.
(5) Prime Pattern was super two back when the blinkers went on for the first time. He stayed at Sandown last start and, for mine, was a victim of a slow tempo, wanting to over-race. He has a bit of ground to make up on Blind Raise, who belted him last start, but with a more genuine tempo he gets his chance.
Selections:
(2) Seraphox
(5) Prime Pattern
(1) Blind Raise
(3) Drumfire
Suggested Bet: Small dutch Seraphox / Prime Pattern
Race 4
Was keen on (2) Mukhtalif at his Australian debut and loved his win there at 1800m. There’s already been winning form to come from that race. He rises in weight but gets a good claim for Logan Bates to help somewhat offset the increase. Draws perfectly here and should lob on speed without having to do much work.
(6) First Chorus has been to Flemington once for a 1700m win. She comes out of a couple of moderately run races this time in, so I’m not sure it’s the best foundation for 1800m third up.
The toppy (1) Cadogan looks to have settled in well in Australia. His latest jump-out at Flemington was very good. He won his maiden in Ireland up on speed over 1800m before stretching to 2100m and just tiring late at Stakes level prior to a spell.
(3) Skippers Canyon was strong late first up and is way better suited up in trip.
Selections:
(2) Mukhtalif
(1) Cadogan
(6) First Chorus
(3) Skippers Canyon
Suggested Bet: Keen Mukhtalif, something small Cadogan at a huge price, too.
Race 5
(4) King Zephyr can bounce back from his first-up run. He was trapped in the quicksand there at Caulfield and is better suited both at Flemington and up to 1400m. His trial between runs was excellent, showing real intent.
(10) Give Me Space was in totally the wrong part of the track at Caulfield last time out. He claims down to 51.5kg here which really appeals and I think he’s going much better than his form suggests. A wide draw is no knock as he would get back anyway, so having clean air in the straight is more important.
(12) Roadcone maps perfectly and is right down in the weights after the claim for Luke Cartwright. He might need the run first up but has a lot in his favour.
(3) Athanatos was good on speed in a very fast-run edition of the VRC-CRV Winter Championship Series Heat. Drawn to get a lovely run here. I just wonder if he may want a mile now.
(7) Big Swinger maps for a lovely run. Genuine query at 1400m for mine but he should get every chance.
Tough race!
Selections:
(10) Give Me Space
(4) King Zephyr
(3) Athanatos
(12) Roadcone
Suggested Bet: Keen to see how the track is playing first, but Give Me Space has a good each-way chance at odds.
Race 6
The toppy (1) Deal Done Fast brings clearly the strongest formlines, despite still being a maiden. He ran a very good third in the Victoria Derby on this track in the spring. His first-up run in the Autumn Classic at Caulfield was a cracker. His two runs in Sydney were just fair, but he wanted to duck in the Sydney way of going in the Derby and that cost him some ground. I doubt many of these would’ve got within 8.5 lengths of Green Spaces in the ATC Derby. The big track suits. Think they’ll go hard here and 2800m is right up his alley.
(17) I Belong could be the main danger if she can get back to the form that saw her bolt in at Seymour two back. I’m not sure going excessively slow in the mid-stages helped her at Sandown last time out and she has trialled nicely between runs. Going 1800m to 2800m with six weeks between runs would be some training effort, but she has the required talent.
Best roughie in the race could well be (13) Erupt. He has only had the two starts, both at Pakenham, but he looks a real grinder who will get 2800m, and possibly further. He’s still doing a bit wrong, so this might come up too soon, but in reality this isn’t much of a step up from a Pakenham maiden. Soft run from gate one.
(16) Silvasista has come up the early favourite, which is a touch bemusing. She was good in the VOBIS Guineas going back three starts, but then poor in SA before winning a most moderate BM62 at Ararat last start. She may be looking for 2800m, but she’s coming off three moderately run races and goes from 2200m to 2800m. Not sure it’s the right platform, nor the right price to find out.
Selections:
(1) Deal Done Fast
(13) Erupt
(17) I Belong
(3) Johnicch
Suggested Bet: Think Deal Done Fast should be favourite, backing him. Also backing roughies Erupt and I Belong.
Race 7
Think (1) Land Legend is going better than the form suggests. He trialled nicely leading into the campaign. He got a long way back in a race dominated closer to the speed at Caulfield last time out, but was good on the line. He gets onto a dry deck for the first time this campaign, which is a plus, and third up last preparation he ran well in a Group 1 Underwood at Caulfield. He needs some luck off the inside alley and has his share of weight, but he can run well.
(4) Plymouth was scratched from a wide draw in last week’s Mornington Cup. He had a total forgive run in the Easter Cup at Caulfield, which was just a trainwreck. Totally forgive that run. His Albury Cup second may have been a touch flattering as I don’t think it was the strongest edition of the race, but even still he is right in the game here.
(13) Bring Forth is going to get control of the race. He comes off a slick-tempo win at Caulfield last time out and with 51.5kg on his back probably only needs to hold that rating to be right in the finish. Looks to have turned a corner this campaign.
Gee, (15) Zakouma is an impressive gelding on the way up. He gets a long way back in his races but has a ripping turn of foot for an emerging stayer. This is a much tougher test than his last two and he’s not overly well weighted, but he has what most of these don’t: upside. It looks a strong tempo on paper which should allow him to flow into the race over the concluding stages.
(14) Jimi Hendrix comes through the same race as Zakouma and while no match for him, he hit the line well. He gets a 2kg weight swing on Zakouma but needs it.
Selections:
(15) Zakouma
(1) Land Legend
(13) Bring Forth
(4) Plymouth
Suggested Bet: Something small 1×3 Land Legend at a big price.
Race 8
Want to revisit this race post-scratchings as the emergencies are right in play.
Speed is strong. (11) Cripps and (10) Arcandam like to lead. (5) Nation’s Call is right there along with (6) Theblade.
If (19) Epimeles can secure a run he can win this. He didn’t have much luck at a crucial stage first up off a long break at Caulfield, having trialled very well prior. If he jumps cleanly, he can land right on speed from gate four. He showed heaps of talent as a two-year-old, including winning the Anzac Day Stakes back in 2024.
(9) Lovelycut is well placed. She didn’t have much luck at a crucial stage first up at Caulfield. The step to 1400m suits and she should get a lovely run.
(12) Madiyya has plenty of talent. She has trialled up nicely for her return and is well suited from a wide draw.
Cripps was totally dominant at Ballarat on Discovery Day, breaking the 1400m track record when leading all the way. That said, it was a day where leading and the inside were absolutely the place to be, so I think the win was flattered. It’s a different story leading all the way at Flemington up the long straight in a race where there does look a bit of pressure.
Selections:
(9) Lovelycut
(12) Madiyya
(19) Epimeles
(11) Cripps
Suggested Bet: Want to wait until post-scratchings to finalise thoughts.
