Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 1 (4) Straand Deal
Best Value: Race 8 (14) After Summer
Best Roughie: Race 9 (1) Streetcar Apollo
Turf Talk
- Clear and sunny conditions are forecast in the lead-up to the meeting, but rain is expected to hit the track on Saturday afternoon.
- We could see the track presented as a Good 4 to start before potentially downgrading to a Soft track, depending on how much rain arrives.
- The rail pushes out slightly from last week’s position and will be +3m the entire circuit.
- The Morphettville course proper is generally fair, but if rain hits, expect runners to come away from the inside lanes, with the middle of the track potentially becoming the better going.
Key stats:
- Andrew Gluyas’ stable continues to build on strong recent form. He has produced 18 winners from his past 100 runners, returning a POT of +31.4%.
- Billy Egan comes to Adelaide for one ride in the Group 1 and has been riding impressively of late, with 21 winners from his last 100 rides at a POT of +27.2%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(4) Straand Deal was moderate last start but raced greenly and had some excuses early in the run. He drops down in grade here and with Mark Zahra retaining the ride, plus the blinkers going on, he should be an improver and looks the one to beat. (6) Tyusix is at peak fitness deep into her prep and may find this an easier race than what she has contested in her last few starts. (7) Eismond made a good impression when winning last start in her Australian debut. There looks to be little speed in this and that may see her jump to the lead and get the run of the race. (5) Talisay was good first-up this prep but has been moderate in her next two starts. A drop in grade today could bring on improvement and she appears to be looking for a staying trip now.
Selections:
(4) Straand Deal
(6) Tyusix
(7) Eismond
(5) Talisay
Suggested Bet: (4) Straand Deal – Win
Race 2
(2) Omaha Dawn has found form this prep, kicking off her campaign with a win before running into the placings when up in grade last time. She drops back down in level today and looks well placed to be running on strongly late, as this should be run at a quick tempo. (8) Beyond Mysti has finished out the back in two runs this prep but those runs had more merit than her finishing positions suggest. She is sharply down in grade and sets up well from barrier 1, so expect improvement. (4) Odessa was a big improver last start when running into second in a similar race. The wide barrier makes it tough, but if she can improve again third-up, she should go close. (5) Skadoosh got too far back when resuming but did knuckle down well late. She can settle closer today from a better barrier and is fitter second-up.
Selections:
(2) Omaha Dawn
(8) Beyond Mysti
(4) Odessa
(5) Skadoosh
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(7) High On The Hill was an easy winner at Kilmore two starts back before running into the placings in a stronger race at Caulfield last time. He comes into this fresh and is down in grade from his last run, so he looks well set up. (1) Hot Statement resumes. He won two in a row to kick off last prep before tackling a stronger race across the border. He has won two from two at this track/distance and was a winner first-up last prep, so he can fire fresh. (6) Dreams Fulfilled ran on well first-up and looks likely to be back in the run again from the wide barrier. He is fitter now second-up and should be strong late again. (2) Alaa Plenty went back from a wide barrier last start and never looked likely. He maps better here today, so expect him to settle closer and a drop back down in grade will suit.
Selections:
(7) High On The Hill
(1) Hot Statement
(6) Dreams Fulfilled
(2) Alaa Plenty
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(6) In That Mode is hard to knock given he appears to be in career-best form after two wins in a row. A rise in distance looks suitable and he maps for the run of the race, so he is hard to knock in this set-up. (7) Bargain Boy drops sharply down in grade after a solid run in the Listed Port Adelaide Guineas last start. This is much easier, so expect him to go close if he can overcome the tough barrier early. (3) Wine Barron looks ready for the 1800m trip deep into his prep now. He looks one of the key speed influences of the race and should put himself into it early. (11) Joviale disappointed last start at Gawler but didn’t have a lot in his favour. He was in strong form prior to that run and can bounce back with a better barrier set-up today.
Selections:
(6) In That Mode
(7) Bargain Boy
(3) Wine Barron
(11) Joviale
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(10) Tropical House was solid when resuming and running into the placings behind the in-form Scandalize. She has previously been a runner who improves with fitness and has won second-up before. She sets up well jumping from barrier 4 again. (7) Starts Now presented to win when resuming but was grabbed on the line and had to settle for second. He can go one better fitter second-up and rising in distance will suit. (2) Jilladora was the runner who defeated Starts Now last start. She was flying late there, so looks ready for a rise in distance but needs luck early jumping from a wide barrier. (3) Stirrup Cup will find this easier than the two races he has contested so far this prep. He is fitter now third-up, which suits, and can use barrier 2 to his advantage to settle closer in the run.
Selections:
(10) Tropical House
(7) Starts Now
(2) Jilladora
(3) Stirrup Cup
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
It’s hard to look past (2) Sea What I See, who has been consistent this prep in stronger races and appears well set up. She rises to this distance for the first time after a solid effort in the Mornington Cup and maps well from a low barrier, so she should take control of the race out in front. (1) Bankers Choice looks likely to relish the rise in distance now that he gets to peak fitness, and expect him to be strong late. (3) Sir Kingsford likes to get out in front and make these types of races a genuine staying test. He has won at this distance before but needs to handle the pressure stepping up in grade to get his ideal run. (4) Kirkliston Blu was solid last start when coming into that race fresh off an Adelaide Cup run. He jumps up in distance quickly, which will suit, as he has a super record at this track/distance.
Selections:
(2) Sea What I See
(1) Bankers Choice
(3) Sir Kingsford
(4) Kirkliston Blu
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(7) Gold Coast Belle looks a very progressive filly who has now won three of four runs so far this prep and takes a step up to black-type racing. She is racing at a high level, so if she can produce a peak performance, she will prove hard to beat and gets a favourable race map here. (6) Rohesia came across the border two weeks ago to take out the Listed Nitschke Stakes. She has her first look at the 1600m trip today but should set up well from barrier 3 and will race handy. (12) Yellowjacket was well supported last start but had little luck in the straight and ran on for fourth. She is suited up in distance but will want more luck in the straight this time from barrier 1. (8) Freedom Flame is on the quick back-up having contested the Oaks last week. She will certainly find this much easier and will likely be under less pressure, but she will need things to go right early from the wide barrier and back in distance.
Selections:
(7) Gold Coast Belle
(6) Rohesia
(12) Yellowjacket
(8) Freedom Flame
Suggested Bet: (7) Gold Coast Belle – Win
Race 8
Good edition of this year’s Derby with plenty up in the air, with race favourite (17) Accidental Bid still sweating on gaining a start as the emergency and the potential for a wet track by this stage. The strongest form lines coming into this race look to be through (14) After Summer, who ran second by a nose in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes, beating home Oaks winner Panova, before running third by 0.5L in the Australian Oaks behind Ohope Wins. The wide barrier makes it slightly tougher, but the race looks to lack early speed, which gives her the chance to cross and find a good position in running. She is worth an each-way play in this set-up. If (17) Accidental Bid gains a start, he looks on the right path to take out a race like this. He has won two in a row here in Australia, including a last-start win over 2000m, and looks progressive. Wet conditions will suit him as well. (1) Single Choice feels like he is flying under the radar, having been an impressive winner of a 2400m Listed race at Caulfield last time and a recent Group 2 winner. A rise in distance will suit and he maps well from a lower barrier, so he looks a good value hope. (3) Kaye Jay comes into this having last contested the ATC Derby at Randwick. He ran fourth in that race and hit the line with Observer, which is strong form for a race like this. The 2500m should prove no issue and Group 1 jockey Mark Zahra retains the ride.
Selections:
(14) After Summer
(17) Accidental Bid
(1) Single Choice
(3) Kaye Jay
Suggested Bet: (14) After Summer – Each-way
Race 9
Competitive race to close today’s meeting. (1) Streetcar Apollo looks good value given the set-up he gets. He is rock-hard fit now and looks the key speed influence in the race, so he can go to the front and be prominent. If the track is wet by this stage of the day, he may be the best suited on the deteriorating ground. (12) Palm Of Jumeirah resumed with a big win at Oakbank recently in a career-best performance. The stable has opted to keep her fresh for this because she performs at her best that way, so if she has any improvement, she will be tough to beat. (11) Nicish has been hitting the line well this prep but is yet to break through for a win. She generally needs some luck late in races as she gets back, but she looks better suited back to the 1200m trip. (7) Tosen Water looks the other key speed influence of the race, so will likely push forward as well. She can handle a wet track, so conditions should prove no concern if the track gets wet by the end of the day.
Selections:
(1) Streetcar Apollo
(12) Palm Of Jumeirah
(11) Nicish
(7) Tosen Water
Suggested Bet: (1) Streetcar Apollo – Each-way
