Shaun Beirne is back with his latest Bet Legends market watch, and this week he is happy to be against a fan favourite and a well-backed filly of Tom Charlton’s that heads to South Australia.
Morphettville Race 4 – Polymnia
The market has Morphettville Race 4 looking close to a two-horse race, but Beirne sees it differently.
“I have clear separation with Mating Call ($3.10) around half a length clear of Polymnia and a gap to third pick,” Beirne said.
“That would imply Mating Call beats Polymnia about 60% of the time, yet the market wants to frame them almost level. I’m happy to call that out.”
With Polymnia continuing to firm in the market Beirne is happy to lean the other way late.
“Everyone seems terrified to bet against her at the moment, but I think the market has overcooked it. If you want to back Polymnia, head over to BetLegends.com.au because we’ll be leading the charge to take her on late.”
Gold Coast Race 7 – Pride Of Jenni
Pride Of Jenni is never easy to knock, but Beirne believes the current version may not be quite the same horse we saw at her peak.
“On raw figures she probably looks about the right price,” he said.
“But visually and performance-wise, I just don’t think we’re looking at the same Pride Of Jenni that used to break races apart.”
Beirne noted her recent runs have come with some caveats, including a first-up performance where she had the race shape in her favour.
“First up she wasn’t beaten far but had a savage bias in her favour. She was brave second-up after being completely friendless in betting, but last start the market was cold on her again and the rating backed that up.”
In a deep race, Beirne believes there may simply be too many strong horses waiting to pounce late.
“On an even track, at this distance, against quality horses stalking her every step, I just think she becomes very vulnerable late. The old Pride Of Jenni probably breaks their hearts. This version? I’m not convinced.”
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