Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the field using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s Hong Kong Vase.
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In The Lab | Hong Kong Vase | Group 1 2400m
The track – unique features of Sha Tin course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Turf, “A” Course, Good
- Lane 1 performs best for all distances from 400m – finish with a POT of 23.6%
- Settling on speed is the most profitable position in run
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a good tempo here over the staying trip:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- A Fabre & M Guyon are winning at 130% ROI from their last 100 races
- C S Shum & J Bowman are winning at 23.2% ROI
- M Botti boasts a healthy ROI of 190.8%
- Ryan Moore gets back aboard Los Angeles
- James McDonald rides Bundle Award again
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Hong Kong Vase. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 08/12/24 | Giavellotto 5H | 57.0kg | 2.5L | 112.6 |
| 10/12/23 | Junko 4G | 57.0kg | 1.0L | 111.6 |
| 11/12/22 | Win Marilyn 4M | 55.5kg | 1.5L | 110.2 |
| 12/12/21 | Glory Vase 6H | 57.0kg | 1.0L | 111.0 |
| 13/12/20 | Mogul 4G | 55.0kg | 3.0L | 111.7 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Hong Kong Vase:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win .
| Weight | Rating |
| 57.0kg | 110.5 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
The verdict and betting strategy:
Speed looks decent with Moments In Time and Eydon rolling along in front. Plenty of international form to line up here which makes the race interesting however I’m confident that the right form is coming from the L’Arc De Triomphe. Sosie and Giavellotto hit the line together at Longchamp and the market has identified them as the main hopes here. Giavellotto won this race impressively last year and has a map advantage over Sosie so I’m happy to side with him. Al Riffa next best if he can bring his best form dropping back in distance.
Suggested Bet:
Giavellotto (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
