Saturday racing returns to Sandown’s Hillside circuit for the first time in quite some time, and the day is a strong one with plenty to unpack in this week’s column.
Two-year-old racing is not typically my forte, but race one does entice as an opportunity. The raced brigade do not have a great deal to stand on beyond their experience, so the debutants may hold an advantage.
Being naive, not betting into this type of race very often, I thought that the early price assessors may miss the Godolphin-owned, Freedman-trained, Craig Williams ridden Semantics, which was quickly backed into 6/4 once the markets did eventually open on Wednesday afternoon. She has trialled extraordinarily well and is not required to run to a very high level to make a winning debut. Inside 2/1 is a gamble I’m more than happy to let go by, but if a better price presents itself on race day and provided she behaves in the parade ring, I would be prepared to take a gamble on her being much too good for Home Invasion and Divine Dot.
Seven-furlong three-year-old races, however, are much more my style, and that brings us to Brass In Pocket. She is preparing for her fourth start and has improved with each run, beginning with a terrific debut performance, where she matched Concord Connie over the concluding 400 metres to the hundredth of a second. She then won comfortably to break her maiden before being well supported from 9/1 into 5/1 at Caulfield over 1440m. There, she was ridden well for the first two-thirds of the race, but Teo Nugent elected to stay toward the rail, which was evidently inferior to the wider lanes used by the quinella.
There does not appear to be a great deal of pace forecast, so Dakotah Keane must make use of her claim and ensure the race is run at a rolling gallop.
The Volta backs up quickly from an excellent run last Saturday, when finishing third to Concord Connie, but I suspect Brass In Pocket’s racing pattern gives her the edge, and she may well start favourite.
It is not often you see a royal runner in Australia.
Gilded Water is owned by the King and bred by his late mother, Queen Elizabeth. The Boss, Matt Welsh, has eloquently made the case for the King’s horse (here), and I am in full agreement.
The market has expected plenty of him since he arrived in Australia, having been sent out close to even money in a highly competitive 16-runner Bart Cummings. He’s not yet entirely delivered on what he’s been expected of, but from such a small sample size and with plenty of excuses, it’d be remiss to suggest that the market has overrated him.
He has since looked excellent at the jump-outs, and the stable appears to have him better tuned for this return than they did last campaign.
The current favourite is Shockletz, who closed strongly first-up in a race run at an honest pace. It may appear as though she is accelerating, but the numbers suggest that she was sustaining speed while others were reaching the end of their run. There is no guarantee she will improve from that performance, too. Particularly if the pace in this race is slow, which I believe it may be. She can certainly win, but not at the rate her current quote implies.
If it is not Gilded Water in the race earlier, then the best bet of the day must be Bella Verona. She was a certainty beaten a fortnight ago, awfully held up turning for home on ground that had deteriorated as the day unfolded, while the eventual winner had already established a race-winning lead. She finished strongly relative to the race, albeit without much clue, falling short but clawing the margin back to 0.35L. The only runner that is anywhere near capable of running to the level of form she will on Saturday is Bel Mezyaan, but he has drawn poorly and will likely concede an advantage at the start. Better than 2/1 is very appealing, and I would be surprised if it lasted.
Suggested bets:
R1 No.1 Semantics
R3 No.12 Brass In Pocket
R4 No.3 Gilded Water
R6 No.9 Bella Verona
