Race History – What does it tell us?
History suggests a clear dominance from the colts and geldings since the race’s inception, with Bella Nipotina breaking new ground last year as the first filly or mare to claim the title. The record also highlights how well-treated the three-year-olds are under the weight conditions – Yes Yes Yes (2019) and Giga Kick (2022) both capitalised on that advantage, while the likes of Cylinder, Growing Empire, Lady Of Camelot and Tulip have also run well with 53kg for the boys and 51kg for the girls.
Lead-up form has proven crucial. Seven of the eight winners have had at least two runs prior to The Everest, with several also ticking over in a mid-prep trial. Despite being a 1200m dash, fitness and race hardness have been key ingredients in handling the relentless pressure of the event.
From a betting perspective, the race has consistently offered value. While three favourites have saluted, the majority of winners have started in the $8–$10 range, showing that opportunities are there for punters who get the form right.
Who brings that profile?
Lady Shenandoah: Concorde into Manikato
Angel Capital: Chautauqua Stakes into Sir Rupert Clarke.
Jimmysstar: Concorde into Premiere
Tempted: Run To The Rose into Golden Rose
Briasa: The Shorts into Premiere
Magic Time: Cockram into Mankato
Jedibeel: The Shorts into Premiere
Position In Run
The barriers, position in run, and speed map are, for me, the most important factors in The Everest. History shows that you can win from almost anywhere, but the tempo often dictates the outcome of this race.
A lot of that comes down to how fair the Randwick 1200m start plays. Reviewing previous editions, landing off the rail is usually an advantage when settling off speed. With such an elite field, it often comes down to the runs horses get in transit. There have been three leaders to win it – Nature Strip and Redzel (twice) – but in a race often full of speed, it’s a huge challenge to lead this field up and win, especially on a dry, fair Randwick track.
With Yulong still yet to choose their slot, the speed this year will come from Ka Ying Rising, Overpass, Briasa, and Magic Time. This could be enhanced even further if the whispers of Yulong selecting Mazu come true. The other factor is backmarkers – can you spot elite on-speed horses 6L in transit? In simple terms, no. Yes Yes Yes and Giga Kick are the two flag bearers for that style, but on those occasions, the speed was brutal.
The ideal barriers are generally between 4 and 7, and with solid speed in this year’s edition, I’m looking for horses who will settle one to three pairs back in transit, ideally off the rail: 1-1, 1-3, 1-4, or 1-5 in racing terms.
Betting
I don’t think there’s been a better Everest to bet into than this year. Yes, Ka Ying Rising is $1.50 currently and in my book is unbackable at those odds. If he’s vulnerable in this race – and I think he is – the winner will pay a minimum of $10+. The hard part is finding which horse can beat the Hong Kong champ.
Betting-wise, the intriguing note was Ka Ying Rising drifting to $1.98 on Betfair on Sunday – off the back of his mixed trial on Tuesday, as well as whispers post-trial about his condition. He also eased from $1.50 to $1.60 across the corps, and I could see him starting around $1.80 on race day.
Outside of that, it’s been a fairly stale all-in betting market with Ka Ying Rising dominating.
Weather Watch
The weather can often be harder to predict than the winner of The Everest itself. The good news this year is that Sydney has enjoyed a solid month of warm, dry conditions leading into the event, which should leave the Randwick surface with a firm, dry base underneath. The forecast looks promising through the week, with only some light showers predicted for Friday. As always, the key factor is no rain on race day. The other element to watch closely is the wind – and we’ll know much more about that come Saturday.
In what is somewhat of a strange year, outside of Magic Time there aren’t any real notable wet trackers. A good 4 would be ideal for the spectacle of the race.
Overall Assessment
The collective sentiment from history suggests the right prep leading in – two runs under the belt – combined with a barrier that allows horses to land off the rail in transit, and most importantly, tactical versatility, has been the key to winning this race. If you’re leading, you have to be at the absolute peak of your powers, both fitness and form-wise.
What horses fit that mould for me? I’m happy to take on Ka Ying Rising off that trial on Tuesday – he looks underdone and vulnerable as a leader. Lady Shenandoah, Angel Capital, and Briasa all bring the right lead-ups, tactical versatility, and just need to draw ideal gates. That’s where my mind is at currently.
