Turf Talk:
- Track has had 52mm of irrigation applied for the week plus 28mm of rainfall on Sunday.
- Wangaratta is a ripping track. It holds rain well. It has a nice, long home straight that generally gives horses a chance to run on if good enough.
- Amazingly it has come up a Soft 6. And with fine weather forecast, should improve.
- Rarely a penalty to be on speed.
- 1170m start is from a chute at the top of the home straight – it’s a ripper. 1600m start has a lovely long run down the back straight before turning, 1400m similar.
- Great betting track.
Race 1
Good race.
Kadesh showed nicely ability prior to her debut at Geelong where she led them up at a good tempo before being nabbed late. She was straight to 1200m there and should derive nice benefit form the outing. She strips fitter and gets a tongue tie on here. Emily Pozman is a good 1.5kg claim in a race like this with an on-speed horse.
Hotspur Reale will run better than the $13 suggests. Has trialled up very nicely for this, recently beating a smart trial horse in Supervise in a Pakenham jump-out. Form through first campaign is sound and has run well on rain-affected going.
I’m happy to oppose Zuppa Inglese at 1170m. She has reasonable 2yo form on paper but think there’s a few holes in it when digging deeper. Trials have been solid enough but they’ve been of a horse wanting more than 1170m. Can win but think she’s too short at $3.60.
The Quiet Immortal had every possible chance last time out in a weaker maiden. Was a little disappointed with him there and this is a lot tougher.
Suggested bet: Backing Kadesh ($3.60)/Hotspur Reale ($13).
Race 5
Gageler can run much better than his 60/1 price tag suggests. Had no luck on debut at Echuca then bucked at his only other start. Has trialled nicely between runs and Brad Rawiller has had a sit on him, so knows the horse. He got back on debut at 1200m but sprung the lids nicely in his recent Bendigo jump-out – suspect that will be the tactic here from a wide draw, look to cross and race on speed.
Habitual was luckless first-up and then ran in a rich race on Ballarat Cup Day, where far from disgraced. He has shown good ability in his career to date and regularly posted ratings that would account for this field.
Suggested bet: Something small 1×3 Gageler at a huge price/backing Habitual the WIN.
Race 6
A host of chances here.
His Finest Hour will need a little luck in the early stages to find a spot, but up to the 1590m I’d expect them to try and ride him positively. I thought his first-up run for Neil Dyer in Adelaide was excellent last start, getting a mile back before making good late ground. The extra 290m here is in his favour and he was given a solid jump-out between runs to keep him up to the mark. $17 seems a massive price.
Amber Star struggles to win, but he gets a terrific setup here. Expect him to settle leader’s back from gate one and down in class he should be awfully hard to hold out late. Jake Duffy has ridden him in both his wins and knows the horse well. He’s run well here at Wangaratta before, too.
Suggested bet: Backing His Finest Hour/Amber Star at odds.
Race 7
Audio Pop Cam gets the blinkers on for the first time, and she looks to horse to beat here. She didn’t have a lot of luck in a strong BM62 first up at Geelong – a race that has produced Bedtime Angel, who has twice won since, amongst other good subsequent form. This filly has always shown above average talent in jump-outs and her debut run and she has more upside than her rivals. The clear knock is the 38 days between runs but backing the stable in to have her right. If she jumps cleanly with the shades on expect her to be right on speed and from there she will prove awfully hard to beat.
Prancing Queen is a handy mare on her day and her fast-finishing third at Mornington first-up was a ripper return to the track. Bailey Kinninmont is riding well and he’s again in the saddle today. Provided they can make ground, expect this mare to hammer the line late.
Suggested bet: Backing Audio Pop Cam – think the $3 on offer is overs. Small something on Prancing Queen at odds.
Race 8
Always had a lot of time for Smarticon and liked his first up win at Geelong (not the strongest Maiden but second horse has since run well). He has five weeks between runs but has jumped-out in terrific fashion at Caulfield since. There doesn’t look manic speed here, but this bloke has the turn-of-foot to get himself out of trouble – he produced the best last 600/400/200m splits of the meeting at Geelong last time out. This isn’t an overly strong race – a lovely option coming out of Maiden grade. With even luck – he’s the best on the card.
Suggested bet: Backing Smarticon. Think $3.10 is over the odds.
Race 9
Bridgeitall maps for a lovely run here with Jake Noonan to ride. She has been given eight weeks between runs since a poor first-up effort at Bendigo but has importantly jumped-out nicely between runs. She appreciates the sting out of the ground and if she can run up to her effort at Bendigo two back when narrowly beaten by Miss Cotoletta/Furosshi then she will prove awfully hard to beat.
Suggested bet: Can back Bridgeitall at the $8.50 on offer.
