Besty’s Set: Caulfield

Race 1

(6) Federer finally delivered a win last start at Flemington, producing a high rating in doing so. The catalyst for that win could have been getting Ben Allen back in the saddle and riding him patiently to finish off his last 400m. He appeals here at the weights with 56kgs on his back and maps for a good run in a possibly slow run race.

(1) Kings Valley, his stablemate, is the obvious threat. He brings in solid form through Gilded Water last start and I like the booking of Mark Zahra here. Slight concern is him at a strong 2400m and he is anchored by the 59kgs, given that I thought he was tight in the market.

(8) Mr Monaco has been OK at shorter trips in his first Australian prep but could lift now he’s fitter and up to a more suitable distance. He is also a possibility to roll forward here with a lack of speed on paper. (7) Litzdeel is an untapped staying talent. She ran well at 2000m last start and is another better suited up in trip. She may lack a run though being 3rd up at 2400m and possibly peaks next run. Against (2) Golden Century, who looks well found in betting off some low rating wins in provincial NSW.

Selections:
(6) Federer
(1) Kings Valley
(8) Mr Monaco
(7) Litzdeel

Suggested Bet: Federer (Win)

Race 2

This race has unearthed some 3yo stars in years gone by with Efficient and Treasurethe Moment some notable winners before going on to Group 1 glory. Think this year’s edition really is between two horses in (2) Centu Cavaddi and (3) Regal Award. Both horses come out of the Navy Pilot race at Sandown on Grand Final day last start and both were eye-catching late against the race shape. I like the rider change on Regal Award with in-form senior Lachie Neindorf, replacing a claiming apprentice and feel that change could see him push forward like he did when he won two starts back. However, I do think that Centu Cavaddi is the superior talent and is also crying out for 1600m. Not much between them but leaning to Centu Cavaddi.

(1) Tagline is coming off an impressive win in the Country last start and could figure in the placings. (7) Obvious is also hitting the race in good form and is tactically versatile.

Selections:
(2) Centu Cavaddi
(3) Regal Award
(1) Tagline
(7) Obvious

Suggested Bet: Centu Cavaddi (Win) at $2.50+.

Race 3

Intriguing race but think the map works out OK for (16) Thebelmontgangster who draws wide and likely pushes forward. I was taken by his first up win over Observer (who has placed in a Guineas since), as he was super impressive from on speed and was strong late. Feel staying at 1400m range is ideal 2nd up in the preparation and could argue this race is no harder than last start.

(7) Sneaky Sunrise has some strong form from her 3yo year and returned in good order at Sandown behind the talented Steel Trap. She maps to be midfield here, which could be tricky, but has the talent to overcome that and looks to be trending back towards her best. (15) Mary Eliza is lightly raced but has shown plenty of ability and has a big turn of foot. Loved her win to end last prep at Caulfield and would be no surprise to see her elevate her level in this preparation. Has jumped out nicely and maps for a soft run. (5) Shadhavar is in great form and won well last start, but did have supreme advantages in that race with tempo and pattern in favour. Feel she’s tight enough in the market given that and this race has a lot of depth.

Selections:
(16) Thebelmontgangster
(7) Sneaky Sunrise
(15) Mary Eliza
(5) Shadhavar

Suggested Bet: Thebelmontgangster (Win)

Race 4

Looks a cracking edition of the Debutant Stakes with a stack of well-bred horses and majority of these having trialled up in great order. Thought the most professional at the jump outs/trials was (4) Tornado Valley, who was nice through the line at Flemington when ridden cold and then won well at Cranbourne when pushing forward and wasn’t fully tested. Love when the babies are drawn the poll and can show speed like this guy, with Zahra on he will get every chance.

(8) Rachini looked sharp in a Flemington jump out and is another who looks a ready made 2yo. Respect the stable/jockey combination. (1) Commit was very strong late in his trial at Caulfield on the Heath track but opposition didn’t look ready for the races yet and that perhaps flattered him. Did like the style of him though and looks a nice type. (7) Ladhar is out of Blue Diamond winner Lyre and showed nice speed late to win a jump out on the inner track at Mornington, she may get back here though.

Selections:
(4) Tornado Valley
(8) Rachini
(1) Commit
(7) Ladhar

Suggested Bet: Tough race to have confidence in with them all on debut – happy to stay out and watch or follow a strong Mounting Yard analyst push from the parade.

Race 5

(5) Grand Larceny was good fresh in a 995m race at Moonee Valley that was dominated by those on speed, thought given that his effort was more than sound. Hawkes’ horses generally improve 2nd up (1up L12 months 9% winning strike rate vs 2up 20%) and think the race here works out well for him with good pace on paper and him slotting for a gun run for Blake Shinn behind that speed. His ratings last prep stand out here and feel the market will really latch onto him late.

(14) Just Like Gaby was impressive on return at Sandown in an easier race, she rated a career PB there and raced more tractably in run. She may need some luck from the map here from gate two if she’s ridden cold like last start though. (4) Don’t Hope Do is airborne this prep and comes through a good edition of the Wylie Handicap behind Watchme Win. Recent jump out was good also and gives himself every chance on speed. (2) Rich Fortune needed the run fresh from a long layoff but was far from disgraced, expect big improvement here second up.

Selections:
(5) Grand Larceny
(14) Just Like Gaby
(4) Don’t Hope Do
(2) Rich Fortune

Suggested Bet: Grand Larceny (Win)

Race 6

Scratching of Emphasize has left me with Zambardo on top but reluctantly. (7) Zambardo has been doing a nice job going through the grades this prep and won on a solid tempo last start at 1800m. This is harder though and the market has rated improvement in his price here, despite hitting a similar mark at his past two runs from a rating perspective. No doubt, he’s a key contender though and still may be open to upside. (3) Makdane is honest and puts himself on speed. Must be a leading player given his recent form and consistency. (5) Prince Eric gets Blake Shinn in the saddle and maybe that inspires a change of tactics and sees him ridden more aggressively in the early stages to be in an on-pace position and that may see some improvement. Going well regardless of that and is in the mix in an open race. (1) Wonder Kid was well held fresh but is much better than that and this is much easier, could see him improving here.

Selections:

(7) Zambardo
(3) Makdance
(5) Prince Eric
(1) Wonder Kid

Suggested Bet: No Bets- Didn’t like the race.

Race 7

The two horses that engage me most here are (10) Wootton Verni and (7) Statuario. The Waller trained import Wootton Verni has been good in all three runs back this prep and thought the just felt the pinch late in that fast run Charterhouse/Globe race. Think that run will bring him on for the 2000m and love the gear change of winkers on plus the fact D Lane rides. Statuario has the right form lines behind Half Yours in the Naturalism and was solid there when exposed early and fading the last 100m for fourth. He’ll be better for that run and again rolls forward here.

(11) Quietness has been racing well in Sydney and gets up to 2000m here. She drops to 54kgs, and Craig Williams goes aboard. Must be a key player but the map didn’t look straight forward, and she’s well enough found in the market. Respect the stable, though who are in hot form. (13) Foujita San went okay fresh in the Sandown Stakes and is much better suited at 2000m. He has a great record at Caulfield on firm decks, and a fast pace would really suit him. Big odds for a horse of his talent with the minimum weight. (15) Cadmus is certainly in the conversation also, now he sneaks into the field.

Selections:
(10) Wootton Verni
(7) Statuario
(11) Quietness
(13) Foujita San

Suggested Bet: Wootton Verni and Statuario (Win).

Race 8

(3) Ndola looks the right horse now that Sabaj is scratched. He has strong form in his 3yo year and loves firm ground, also think 1400m is the right distance range for him. He was impressive at Morphettville on the Parks track and has had the run under the belt. He’s the horse to beat. (5) Sunshineinmypocket was good on return at The Valley and has a good record at 1400m. Has sound ratings last prep and Caulfield course does suit him. Whilst, (9) So Risque is fit and in-form. (4) Scheelite turned the corner last prep and finally delivered on his promise early doors. Liked his recent trial and feel he could impact this race fresh.

Selections:

(3) Ndola
(5) Sunshineinmypocket
(9) So Risque
(4) Scheelite

Suggested Bet: Ndola (Win).