Betsy’s Best: Geelong

Turf Talk

• Track has come up a Soft 5 with a few showers moving through across the day. Keep an eye on that.
• Offsetting any further rain is strong westerly winds, which blow from inside rail to outside rail down the back straight and into their faces around the home bend. Ideal spot may be a bit of cover/off the fence – but keep an eye on that throughout the day.
• Rail out 9m from the 1700m to 800m and 11m the remainder, generally means they can use plenty of the track with fresher ground out wide. Although, they do aerate the widest 3m to stop horses going to the outside fence.

Race 2 – (2) Blue Ismay

Really like Blue Ismay first-up at the traditional 1547m distance. He showed glimpses of ability last campaign in strong maidens but, judging by his two jump-outs this time in, has come back in excellent order. Middle draw should enable Jamie Mott to find a spot in the first 4-5 in running, one off the fence. Think this bloke has a bit of talent and he can be breaking his maiden today.

As the market has identified, (12) Perfect Night is probably the danger with the winkers going on here. She looks like 1500m+ will suit on her two runs to date, so the step in trip seems ideal. She’s drawn for a good run from gate three, too.

Betting Suggestion: Backing Blue Ismay

Race 4 – (1) Calypso King

This horse has been scratched from wide barriers a couple of times recently, hopefully the stable is meticulously trying to find the perfect race first up. He was tried over a bit of ground last campaign but I just think he’s a jump-and-run sprinter. His trial at Ararat last month was excellent: he showed good gate speed, comfortably cruised along at a good gallop and beat his rivals by several lengths in solid time for the morning.

The barrier is ideal, Jarrod Fry has had a sit on him in that jump-out and he strikes a pretty moderate maiden here on his home track – think he’s massive odds at $10.

(2) Iberian Lynx was OK at his first preparation without setting the world on fire. Resumes with a tongue tie here so maybe he’s had a little issue they’ve now got on top of. Thought jump-outs were just ‘fair’ for a horse they’re asking you to take $2.60 about.

The one horse that scares me is the debutant (8) Live. Clinton McDonald is deadly with his first starters and this filly has been given a reasonably quiet time of it in lead-up trials. Jamie Mott riding another tell-tale sign she might be here to run well on debut.

Betting Suggestion: Scratchings have reduced the field to seven, taking away a third dividend. Backing Calypso King straight out at $10.