| Race | Horse |
|---|---|
| R3 No.13 | Saaberia |
| R5 No.8, smaller No.6 | Lavandula/Blue Moon Summit |
| R7 No.3 | Prochester |
Turf Talk:
- Track has gone up a Good 4 with warm weather forecast, expect it to get to a Good 3.
- Winds shifting from the northwest to the southwest in the middle of the day and between 25–35km/h.
- Wind is into them around the home bend, but tail wind down back straight (1400m+ races).
- Horses on speed should be at no disadvantage, but keep an eye on pattern as the day goes on with changing wind.
Race 3
Think the early favourite, Nailsen Park, will be better over further than 1200m. He hit the line well first up in a reasonable maiden at Kembla, but I did expect to see him at 1400m next start. Drawn well, which will assist, but I think he’s a touch short at $3.40.
Think Saaberia should be favourite. Drawn to sit leader’s back with leading jockey Ethan Brown up. Ran well in a handy form race at Kilmore on debut – 1st, 2nd and 7th have all since won. He showed good gate speed there so should be able to use gate one and he was solid through the line in a fast Caulfield jump-out between runs.
Suggested Bet: Saaberia WIN
Race 5
Good speed here and that should suit Lavandula. Think she’s just a gun 1000m horse. She has had two goes at the trip where she has been allowed to balance up early and finish off, and she was dominant in winning both. In breaking her maiden prior to a spell she beat Central Bank, who then went on to win his next two in dominant fashion. Then he return with a brilliant win at Ballarat, sitting off speed and ripping home over the top of rivals. She has been kept fresh and given a soft trial between runs – an ideal setup.
Having something on Blue Moon Summit at $23. He’s a horse I’ve always thought had some ability and he finally delivered something in breaking his maiden at Tatura last time out. That was his first go for Matt Ivil, so maybe he’s turned a corner. Think getting onto dry tracks could be key to him as he didn’t look comfortable with the cut out of the ground on debut.
Suggested Bet: Backing Lavandula, something small Blue Moon Summit at odds
Race 7
Think Prochester is going very well this campaign. Trialled nicely prior to Sale first up where he raced in restricted room over a distance short of his best. Then he went to Geelong and got back/worked through the line strongly on a day you needed to be on speed. Third-up now, getting to 2000m, dropping in grade, drawn a good gate are all positives. Too Big is a tough, on-speed galloper who can be challenging to get past, but think Prochester has upside and he can get the job done today.
Suggested Bet: Backing Prochester
