| Race | Horse | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Race 3 No. 9 | Miss Revealing | Trialled well before debut and strong through the line at Sandown. Step to 1400m ideal; maps perfectly to control or sit just off the pace. |
| Race 6 No. 4 | Winning Toast | Resuming on top of the ground; trialled well and maps ideally from gate four. |
Turf Talk:
- Rail is back to the True having been out 6m.
- Last meeting was held on a heavy deck, so expect those wider lines to be quite worn.
- Default position rail True at Warrnambool is to favour those runners on speed.
- Keep a close eye on how the track plays throughout the meeting.
Race 1
Smashing Lad covered more ground than the early settlers first up over 1000m at this track, but stuck on gamely to run second. He was heavily backed that day and has always shown good ability in jump-outs. From gate two today. Allen should take him straight to the front, and that should see him hard to catch.
Debutant, Detective Gus, has trialled well both on speed and from the tail (at Colac). Sticky gate and despite having a super frontrunning jockey on in Meech, doubt he can cross Smashing Lad, or would be surprised if Allen hands up, but he has good talent and will run well on debut.
The other winning hope is Banyan Jenni who has trialled well since joining the Shane Jackson yard. He is a master with tried horses and expect this bloke to run well fresh. He’s been in and scratched a few times, maybe looking for the right race.
Paris Winds is hard in the market and gets a reasonable run, but thought she was too short at $4.80.
Suggested bet: Smashing Lad is edging towards $2.50, which would be an appealing price. Quinella/Trifecta 3,7,9.
Race 3 No.9 Miss Revealing
You can get black figures ($2+) about this 3yo filly and I have her marked around $1.90. Bet365 even has a Mega Boost at $2.20. She trialled well prior to her 1300m Sandown debut where she was excellent behind Obucci, and she wasn’t stopping on the line. The step to 1400m is ideal and from gate three she can either control the race or sit right behind the speed. All things being equal, she should be breaking her maiden today.
Suggested bet: Keen Miss Revealing.
Race 6 No.4 Winning Toast
The favourite, Danzsin, is a gelding I’ve had time for since her jump-outs, and his last win was strong, but he seems short enough at $2.20 stepping into a BM62 of depth.
Like Winning Toast resuming on top of the ground. He did a terrific job at his first preparation for Craig Conron, narrowly beaten when covering ground in a handy maiden at Bendigo before twice bolting in on the synthetic. He was good in a 3YO race at Flemington two back and happy to forgive his last run where he was at the end of his campaign. He has trialled well for this and I think his preference is definitely for dry decks, which he gets here. Maps ideally from gate four and Johnny Allen knows him well, having ridden him twice on raceday and in both recent jump-outs.
Betting suggestion: Can just about back Winning Toast E/W, but I think the $5.50 is overs.
