Turf Talk:
- Werribee is traditionally known as a track where leaders and the rail are advantaged due to the tighter-turning nature of the circuit.
- However, at recent meetings the inside section of the track has been inferior. I’m not sure if something has changed in how they are preparing the surface, but that’s how it has played out.
- That said, the rail goes back to the 3m position, having been out 9m at the last meeting, so there is fresher ground on the inside patch.
- I naturally default to horses that will settle in the first few at Werribee, but keep an eye on how the opening races play out.
- Warm, windy conditions should see the track dry out. The wind is blowing from the north, which is a tailwind up the home straight. The way the track is laid out means it’s rarely a direct headwind.
Stats that matter:
- Anthony and Sam Freedman are striking at 25% from their past 100 runners and 21.2% at Werribee.
- Ciaron Maher strikes at 25.5% from a reasonable sample size when bringing horses to Werribee, with a PoT of 17.6%.
- Lloyd Kennewell is striking at 21% from his past 100 runners and has hit his straps in recent months.
- Luke Currie strikes at 30.2% at Werribee from a solid sample size and is outperforming market expectations.
Race 3:
(15) It’s Gnarly maps to lead and should give them something to catch. He debuted over 1200m at Sale and copped a squeeze late which cost him some ground. He wouldn’t have won anyway as he was receding, but it was a strong enough Maiden to debut in and his trials prior suggested reasonable ability. I like the blinkers going on and the soft draw stepping out to 1400m. I just want to see him bowl along at a decent tempo as he could prove hard to catch with the wind at his back up the home straight.
Suggested Bet: Think the $7.50 available about (15) It’s Gnarly is good value. Happy to play.
Race 4:
Handy Maiden, this.
First to the two favourites. (5) Watten Asset had every possible chance at Wangaratta last time out in what I thought was a weaker Maiden. The plus side is he has race fitness on his side and Teo Nugent can press forward. (11) Sealand was slow out on debut at Pakenham but strong late. The race looked to have some depth. You just wouldn’t want to be slow out again and he may be looking for further than 1200m.
Both can win but I think both are under the odds.
The Ben Brisbourne-trained (1) Cries And Whispers has shown plenty of talent in his jump-outs, both last year and in his two this campaign. He jumps the barriers well enough, so expect Lachie King to look for a spot in the first four in running, and from there he should prove awfully hard to beat on debut.
I loved the recent trial of (8) Half Scotch who bolted in at Geelong under her own steam. Importantly, she wore blinkers in that trial, which she sports on raceday for the first time. She is now with Mark Young, having formerly been with Danny O’Brien, and she looks in good order. Michael Dee sticks with her off that trial and she draws for an ideal run from gate three. Right in the mix.
Suggested Bet: At $10 and $8, happy to back (1) Cries And Whispers and (8) Half Scotch.
Race 6
This isn’t a strong race.
Provided she jumps cleanly, (12) Magnardo can hold them out and lead (can be a touch hit and miss at the jump). She comes off a string of picnic wins – which isn’t normally a recipe for success of the professionals – but she has been most dominant in her victories. She had always shown a bit of talent in jump-outs across her career but didn’t put it together early doors. Reece Goodwin has only had her this campaign and has her going well. This is a lovely race for her to continue building her picket fence.
Think (6) Balgowan is over the odds at $16+. She was badly held up here at the track and trip last start in a key form reference for today’s contest. Like Bailey Kinninmont taking the ride. Will settle off speed but be strong late.
Suggested bet: Dutching up (backing both to win the same amount) Magnardo and Balgowan.
Race 7
Surprised (5) Snappy Pierro isn’t a dominant favourite. Jason Maskiell hops back in the saddle having not ridden her at the last two starts, he’s 13:4-2-2 on her back and he posted a double for Danielle Chapman Sunday a week ago. She went out too hard at Sandown last time out in a far stronger race, but did a good job to hang on and run third. Record at 1400m reads 14-0-3-3 but if you dig a little deeper most of those have been against stronger opposition and she has posted several ratings at the trip that would beat her rivals today. She was also nabbed on the line at Tatura four back over 1450m after going toe-to-toe with Adki early, who dropped right out – given the tempo of the race it was an excellent run.
Suggested bet: Backing Snappy Pierro. Can see her shortening right up from the $3.20.
Race 8
Looks to be good speed.
(5) Proshow got out in trip last campaign but his runs at 1400m and 1600m early in the campaign were among his best. He has jumped-out really nicely heading into this preparation, suggesting he has come back in good order. The knock is he’s not the best beginner – and that hasn’t improved in his jump-outs this campaign – but the likely strong tempo should allow him to flow into the race.
He is a horse that raced keenly throughout the early part of his career, but that is seemingly improving. Dan Stackhouse has never ridden him on raceday but has importantly been on board in all three jump-outs this campaign – so knows him well. He is also going to Werribee for just the one ride. Might have more upside than his rivals and provided they can make ground I think he should be favourite.
Suggested bet: Happy to wait and see how the day plays out. If horses can make ground, will back Proshow.
