Turf Talk:
- Historically, Ararat has been a track you just default to leaders but feel like that’s shifted in the last 12 months.
- The only meeting this season was the Cup meeting on November 9, and you could win from anywhere.
- Cup meeting last year was the opposite, with on speed horses dominating, but since then it’s has evened up.
- Still bonusing anything that can settle in the first four, but not as savagely as I would’ve 24 months ago.
Key stats:
- Linda Meech is going at 21% form her last 100 rides. No surprise she rides Ararat well, going at 21.7% at the track across her career.
- Jack Hill is another riding well, striking at 20% form his last 100 rides at a PoT of 63%.
- Trainer Matt Laurie is going at 18% form his last 100 runners at a PoT of 33.6%.
- Tony and Calvin McEvoy are going at 21% form their last 100 runners and 25% when they bring a horse to Ararat.
Race 1
Like Swoboda. She has always shown ability in her jump-outs and debut run at Treang last campaign was good before striking a wet track at the ‘Bool and then being trapped deep on a mad leader/inside day at Mornington. Jump-outs this time in have been excellent – if she has any luck from the gate she will be in the finish.
French Reign can run better than his 25/1+ price tag. He trialled well before debuting in the Donald Classic where he got back from a wide gate on a day you needed to be on speed. He has again trialled very nicely and from a good draw should be right on speed.
Polished Wood has shown good ability prior to his debuts. He sports the barrier blanket and is a bit dicey at barrier rise.
Suggested bet: Backing Swoboda, something small French Reign at big odds, too.
Race 3
Not the strongest maiden. Honing in on two horses at double-figure odds.
Nichaloha has always shown a bit of ability, but his starts have been costly. He got a mile back at Bordertown last time out before doing nothing but run up backsides in the straight. He should’ve been somewhere in the finish. The best he has jumped has been when Cian MacRedmond has been on board and he jumps back in the saddle on Tuesday. Step to 1300m is ideal and if he can jump remotely cleanly, I think he will be in the finish at $23.
Darating is the other horse I think is over the odds. He’s going to get back from the wide draw, but tempo looks OK. He had little luck fresh at Warrnambool in what was a half-decent maiden and the little step in trip looks ideal. With even luck, he’s a winning hope.
Suggested bet: Backing Nichaloa and Darating at odds.
Race 8
Not sure Winning Toast is going as well this campaign as he did last time in. Jump-outs have been moderate, as was his first up run at Warrnambool.
Intimeofneed is racing very well and this looks a most winnable race for her. She didn’t have a lot of luck first or second up and was then nabbed by Power Cable, who enjoyed a miracle run through the field, at Mornington last start. She gets back to the scene of her only victory and draws ideally to sit right on speed.
Have to send Adki around a winner. She’s airborne with Amy Hermann in the saddle. She will lead and control here and the 1300m is an ideal trip. If on-pacers are advantaged throughout the day she will start significantly shorter than the $11 on offer.
Suggested bet: Backing Intimeofneed. Smaller Adki.
