Turf Talk

• Rail is out 6m for the first time since March 15.
• It was a slight on-speed edge that day, but the progression then was true-4m-6m, whereas Saturday is true-6m.
• Westerly winds are forecast, blowing up the home straight and across the track from inside rail to outside down the side.
• With those factors combined, it should race fairly. No fear backing a strong off-speed horse if the tempo suits.

Race 1

Speed comes from (1) The Creator and (4) Al Duca, who are natural leaders. Doubt (7) Nation’s Call is far away.

Like both (7) Nation’s Call and (5) Prince Eric and happy to back both at the prices. Prince Eric was terrific late against the pattern first-up at The Valley. He went straight to the mile first-up, which was a big ask, and staying at the trip here is a plus. He has a great record at 1600m, maps well, and at his third preparation in Australia, looks ready to fire.

Nation’s Call trialled like a bomb at Cranbourne in fast time and appears to have come back very well. He has resumed three times in Australia and won the only time he did so at a mile, defeating (8) Presser. He got a mile back at 1400m first-up last prep but hit the line well. At 1600m he can put himself in the race.

Al Duca was backed the moment markets went up and will make his own luck on speed for Mark Zahra. (8) Presser was slow out last start and can be more forward here.

(5) Prince Eric
(7) Nation’s Call
(4) Al Duca
(8) Presser

Race 2

Speed looks strong. (6) Deep Pleasure, (10) Xarpo and (4) Subliminal roll forward. (1) Paradise City went back at 1000m first-up but rises to 1400m and likely pushes on from the wide gate. Backing a couple at double figures.

Totally forget (2) Flyer went around last start at The Valley. She would have been in the finish with even luck, but none came. She was super first-up at this track in a race that also featured key rival and favourite Shadhavar. The strong tempo and wider draw are ideal and should ensure clean air.

(9) Shadhavar maps for a soft run just behind the speed and should be in the finish. The race does not end there.

(2) Flyer
(9) Shadhavar
(1) Paradise City
(8) Flying Fizz

Race 3

Doesn’t look a lot of speed. Think (2) Austmarr is the most likely leader and can control. Maybe (4) Miraval Rose handy from a good gate.

This sets up perfectly for Austmarr. She has residual fitness from a Queensland campaign and would have relished some sun on her back. She is an imposing type who should get total control here. The Mornington jump-out was excellent and her ratings are among the best in the race. She has been to Melbourne a few times and was good at both The Valley and Sandown, so the anticlockwise direction is no issue.

Thought (1) See You In Heaven was super from the tail first-up. The knock is the lack of tempo, but she will be strong late and the wide draw suits her pattern.

(8) Roll On High is another major player. She hasn’t won fresh but has run well first-up. Jump-outs are solid enough and 1200m on resumption helps. (10) Lovelycut was okay first-up at an unsuitable 1000m after a long break and should strip fitter.

(2) Austmarr
(1) See You In Heaven
(8) Roll On High
(10) Lovelycut

Race 4

Strong speed. (7) Red Hot Nicc may lead but won’t get it his own way. (3) Recommendation and (5) Jigsaw are right there. (8) Klabel not far away.

Clayton Douglas looks to have (6) Tiger Shark airborne. She came from behind Jimmysstar in the Concorde and beat him home, running best last 400m and 200m of the meeting. She was well beaten by (4) Oak Hill at The Valley two back but had little luck. 1100m off a strong tempo looks ideal.

He probably needs further, but liked how (2) Coastwatch trialled in Sydney. Time was only moderate and bar plates go on for the first time, which is a red flag for an older horse, but the best of his ratings are good enough to be right in the finish of a race like this.

Topweight (1) Nadal came of age last prep. He was super at this track and trip second-up on Guineas Day and his Meteorite win at Cranbourne reads well, beating Baraqiel. Trial was typically sharp. The knock is a long break and he may improve deeper into the prep. (4) Oak Hill gets a great setup. She was terrific two back and was one of many with no luck in the Moir. Strong tempo suits and she goes well at Caulfield. Tough race.

(2) Coastwatch
(6) Tiger Shark
(4) Oak Hill
(1) Nadal

Race 5

(2) Bacash probably leads (4) Bingi, with (3) Space Rider close.

Been waiting for (6) Planet Red to get to 1400m. He won well first-up beating Bingi, then didn’t sprint with them at The Valley but was very strong late. From gate 2 he can lob on the back of a genuine tempo and put them away.

Hard to ignore (5) Stay Cosmic, who beat Planet Red at The Valley first-up and should improve. From his draw he may spot Planet Red a start. (4) Bingi is a tough on-speed galloper and will give a sight. Distance is a query for Bacash, but he’s the one they have to run down.

(6) Planet Red
(5) Stay Cosmic
(4) Bingi
(2) Bacash

Race 6

Suspect (1) The Playwright leads with (7) Torsheen and (9) Morgana right there. Several are lightly raced but (12) Chateau Eze might be another that presses forward.

This is a terrific two-bet play.

(6) Vivid Sun deserves to be favourite. She relished a strong tempo over 1300m first-up at Sandown and put them away quickly. Both wins have been excellent and the rise in trip suits.

(3) Zany Girl looks big odds. Despite finishing seventh, her run in the Atlantic Jewel was as good as anything. She was badly held up and never got clear. Wide draw suits and she will power late. She’s on trial at 1400m with much of her Tassie form at 1000m, but the Thousand Guineas path makes sense.

Torsheen is worth including in wider exotics after racing on a hot tempo and sticking on.

(6) Vivid Sun
(3) Zany Girl
(7) Torsheen
(10) Lathlain

Race 7 – Underwood Stakes

(3) Smokin’ Romans and (4) Desert Lightning most likely set the speed. (8) Golden Path backs up out of a fast 1700m and should be handy.

Think (9) Sir Delius is the best horse in the race. His first-up run behind Lindermann rated highly and sets up a big prep. From the 1800m start there is a reasonable run before the bend, so Williams can work across from the wide gate. He is the clear favourite on form, but the current price looks skinny.

Best value is (8) Golden Path, rock-hard fit off a career-peak Flemington win.

(2) Buckaroo bolted in last year’s Underwood and was arguably one of the runs of the Memsie fresh. Soft jump-out since and maps for a good lane. (11) Zardozi got too far back first-up at The Valley but her work through the line was terrific. (10) Moira is ready now third-up and maps well.

(9) Sir Delius
(8) Golden Path
(2) Buckaroo
(11) Zardozi

Race 8 – Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes

(13) Jennilala, (2) Here To Shock and (7) Zarastro are the most likely leaders. (17) Zou Sensation is right there if he gains a run.

(9) Angel Capital is clearly the horse to beat. The wide draw is no issue as he’ll get back anyway and it keeps him off the fence, which is important. His first-up win at The Valley was outstanding and, off a long spell, he can improve again. With even luck he should win.

At 100-1, (13) Jennilala has a fluker’s hope. She will settle on speed and her fresh record is very good. Loved the recent Cranbourne trial in good time.

Topweight (1) Another Wil was plain first-up, but his previous five ratings would all win this. He maps for a perfect run and, on firm ground, can bounce back. The barrier is tricky for (16) Sepals. With a soft draw he could have lobbed on speed without working. From the carpark Craig Williams has a task. He was dominant first-up, but I doubt the depth of that race. Talented and on the up, but a few knocks here. (5) Arkansaw Kid is a query at 1400m but is fit and maps for a soft trail.

(9) Angel Capital
(13) Jennilala
(1) Another Wil
(16) Sepals

Race 9

(4) River Of Stars and (16) Statuario probably lead, but overall speed looks moderate.

Not enamoured with the map, but think (12) Torranzino can run a race at a big price. He trialled nicely prior to having no luck fresh at The Valley in the So You Think. He loves Caulfield at 2000m and Celine Gaudray rides him well. He will concede a start, so monitor the pattern. If they are running on he can figure.

Not dropping off (18) Brayden Star. He was fair with blinkers on first time last start, but up to 2000m is ideal and he maps perfectly.

(17) Half Yours has a terrific chance. He was excellent late in Sydney last start, 2000m is ideal, and he should settle handy if it’s only moderate tempo. Slight query is his best form being on softer going, but he is progressive and deserves to be near the top of the market. (16) Statuario is drawn out but with limited speed can make light work of the draw. Trialled well before the first-up run here and went well.

(12) Torranzino
(18) Brayden Star
(17) Half Yours
(16) Statuario

Race 10

Not a lot of speed, which should enable (8) Gilded Water to control. He sat on a good tempo on Victorian debut and stuck on well for second. Trials were good and 2000m looks ideal. He is the horse to beat but is well found.

Think (14) Almairac goes in everything. He can mix his form but was very good at The Valley last start. He wants firm ground and may need luck from the gate, but he has talent.

(10) Mr Verse trialled very nicely at Flemington prior to a dominant Sandown win. This is tougher, but he is trending the right way. (5) Kings Valley is in wider exotics.

(8) Gilded Water
(14) Almairac
(10) Mr Verse
(5) Kings Valley