Best bet: Race 3 No.5 Riproar (E/W)
Next best: Race 4 No.1 Guest House
Two bet play: Race 6 Backing No.4 Diamond Gust and No.7 The Volta
Turf Talk:
- Rail is back to the True having been out 9m.
- Best rail position for mine is 3m.
- Tight turning track that is rarely going to disadvantage those hugging the rails on speed.
- Bonusing anything ‘up and in’ heading into this meeting.
Race 1
Gellhorn and Divine Thoughts looks the likely leaders. Extreme Virtue leader’s back off one. Even tempo.
(9) Divine Thoughts can give a great sight up on speed. She has been given a solid jump-out at Avoca in the 20 days since she knocked up late at Caulfield Heath over 1500m last time out. This is her first preparation with the McEvoys too, they are no doubt learning things with each start, and third-up, getting to a mile, on a track likely to favour on-speed horses looks a great play. She broke her maiden this track and trip in dominant fashion. $8.50 appeals.
(4) Gellhorn is the other that interests. She has always promised plenty and is starting to deliver this time in. Loved how aggressively Luke Cartwright rode her from a wide draw this track and trip to win last time out. Similar set up here.
(2) Real Alliance is airborne and can run well again while (5) Miss Playlounge had no luck coming through the same race.
(6) I Only Wish can win, but maps sticky and may need a bit of luck.
Selections:
(9) Divine Thoughts
(4) Gellhorn
(2) Real Alliance
(5) Miss Playlounge
Suggested bet: Backing Divine Thoughts/Gellhorn
Race 2
(15) Watersports is bursting to win a race and gets her chance here. Probably unlucky not to win both first-up at Seymour and last time out at Lakeside. Third-up now, with Willo jumping on, I think they’ll use the good gate to be right behind what look a hot tempo and provided the breaks come she will prove awfully hard to hold out. Little step up in distance is also in her favour.
(6) Dark Simba look ready now third-up and gets a nice claim for Jackson Radley, who is going to do a bit of damage this summer.
(11) Ahha Ahha comes through a high rating win at this track over 1400m with even luck from a slightly tricky gate/map she can run well.
Race doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(15) Watersports
(11) Ahha Ahha
(6) Dark Simba
(13) Savamoon
Suggested bet: Can back Watersports – think she will be in the finish.
Race 3
Sheesh, (5) Riproar looks a huge price here. He struck inferior ground and was held up at key stages at Pakenham last start. That run came off a layoff of more than a year and was his first outing for Reece Goodwin, so it’s clear he’s had his share of setbacks. That said, his best form is well and truly up to a race like this and the first-up effort suggested he’s back in good order. He also hadn’t been seen at the jump-outs for two months leading into that run, so he should strip noticeably fitter this time.
(1) Laa De Sha will need some luck off the pole draw but has trialled well.
Selections:
(5) Riproar
(1) Laa De Sha
(8) El Tercero
Suggested bet: Keen E/W Riproar
Race 4
(1) Guest House was saved from Caulfield last week to debut here and he looks clearly the horse to beat off his jump-outs. He has trialled up well and from gate four should get a lovely run near the speed. Ticks plenty of boxes.
(9) Neotropical has a chance at odds. She didn’t have much luck on debut at Pakenham in a race a number of these come through, despite being arguably the best run in the race outside the winner she’s the outsider of the horses lining up here.
(10) Resolutely has jumped-out brilliantly for a leading 2YO stable in the Hayes Boys. She has Willo up and I’d expect her to push forward and run well here.
Selections:
(1) Guest House
(9) Neotrpoical
(10) Resolutely
(11) Spirit Nature
Suggested bet: Keen Guest House, something small Neotropical as well.
Race 5
(2) Harry’s Yacht deserves to be favourite here. He was unlucky not to beat Steel Move at Ballarat last time out and he maps nicely here. As they’ve done a bit of late, he has been back to the jump-outs between runs and whilst he looked to go terribly, that’s just him: he’s a terrible trial horse.
(7) Silent Shares has trialled up nicely and she’s a horse of some talent. From gate two with Benny Melham up she needn’t settle too far off them and at double figures she can win fresh.
(3) Steel Move has run well since beating Harry’s Yacht, hitting the line strongly from the tail on the Caulfield Heath track. Sticky map from gate one as he could get buried away on the fence, but racing very well.
Don’t know that Cranborne, wide draw, 1200m is really her go, but (6) Butternut Princess has come back in super order. She quickened down beautifully to win her recent Pakenham jump-out – look for her to be strong late.
Selections:
(2) Harry’s Yacht
(7) Silent Shares
(3) Steel Move
(6) Butternut Princess
Suggested bet: Something small on both Harry’s Yacht and Silent Shares.
Race 6
I might have this all wrong, but I cannot see why (3) Millennium Blade is so short here. Sure, he’s got nice ability, but he got to the right part of the track in winning first up at Kyneton in a fairly moderate Maiden and now tackles a much stronger race. Drawn well and 1400m suits, but the $2.50 looks absolute poison.
(7) The Volta is airborne. Second best last 600/400m splits of the meeting behind the flying Bazaball Rewarded over an unsuitable 1000m first up at Cranbourne. Thought her win here at Cranbourne over 1200m last start was excellent and everything she does suggests 1400m will be ideal. She was able to take up a spot on speed on debut when winning a strong maiden at Sale last campaign and think she can do similar on Saturday. Over the odds at $14.
The other horse I am keen to have something on is (4) Diamond Gust. He was held up at Mornington fresh but worked home well enough in a strong race. Key here is blinkers going on, which he wore in a trial prior to his fresh run where, importantly, jumped the gates well.
Selections:
(7) The Volta
(4) Diamond Gust
(11) Davida
(3) Millennium Blade
Suggested bet: Backing Diamond Gust/The Volta
Race 7
Not overly keen on this race.
Loved how strong (7) Lincoln Rocks was through the line in a recent Flemington jump-out. He was 33 days between runs heading into the Kyneton Cup and now 49 days into this, which suggests the stable think he’s best kept fresh. Gets in with 51kg here after the claim and will race on speed.
(1) Saint George went too hard in the Ballarat Cup and was entitled to knock up. Should get a soft run from gate one.
(4) Cadmus had the tempo in his favour but was excellent late to run second in that same Ballarat Cup. Think 2500m suits now, the knock is he’s going to settle near-enough last.
(9) Regal Lion can run well down to the 53kg. Suspect Froggy Newitt will push forward either early in the race or during the mid-stages, which could give him a tactical edge. He looks to have hit his straps at his past few runs. Like the setup – he can give plenty of cheek on speed.
Selections:
(7) Lincoln Rocks
(9) Regal Lion
(1) Saint George
(4) Cadmus
Suggested bet: Pass
Race 8
Tricky race. Think a few horses are looking for further whilst others have sticky maps.
(3) Suntora was good first-up at the mile and is better suited out to 2000m here. Concern is she comes out of two fast run races which have suited her and now she gets into a race that looks to be moderately run.
(12) Sun Gift was good at a mile first up, 2000m now suits.
(8) Winston could get a reasonably soft time of it on speed, which will help his cause.
Tough race!
Selections:
(3) Suntora
(12) Sun Gift
(8) Winston
(11) Bon Fete
Suggested bet: There are better betting races on the card.
Race 9
Good speed. Celcius Star, Apache Song setting the tempo.
(5) Recon is a promising galloper. He has won his three starts since joining the Carey-Walker stable. He was arguably in the inferior ground when defeating Big Swinger on Pakenham Cup Day, so can add further merit to the win. The form around him is strong and he again draws for a lovely run right on the back of the speed.
(9) Zouper Fund is another promising galloper who is building an imposing record. Gets nice weight relief with Cartwright’s claim rising in class. Should also get a lovely run from a soft draw. Needs to go to another level to beat Recon, but still on the up.
(6) Apache Song is the best roughie in the race. She’s better suited getting back to dry ground and she should control the race from up on speed. Much of her recent racing has been in Stakes company – she’s well graded here. Recent jump-out was sound.
(7) Prancing Spirit was terrible first-up at Pakenham but his best would be most competitive here. Don’t mind him from a wide draw – he’s run some of his best races form wider draws and seems to appreciate clean air.
Selections:
(5) Recon
(9) Zouper Fund
(6) Apache Song
(7) Prancing Spirit
Suggested bet: Like Recon. Also having a coin on Apache Song at huge odds.
Race 10
Speed looks strong. Chakado, Mixxit, Opening Address press forward.
(7) Chakado can run well at odds. He likes fast tempos and his last two runs this track and trip have resulted in wins. Good two back in the greys race at Flemington then reported not to handle the soft deck at Caulfield last time out and was also 1400m up to 1800m. Has had a soft jump-out between runs to keep him up to the mark. Think he can give a sight on speed.
(8) Mixxit is on the quick back-up from knocking up late at the Caulfield Heath last week. Up in grade but gets weight relief and maps for a lovely run tagging Chakado and Opening Address. Has won on an eight day back-up previously, coincidentally at this track and trip in December last year.
Both (10) Madiyya and (5) Hiyaam Proud come through the same race at Pakenham last time out where they ran well from the tail, albeit they got to the right part of the track. Both have hopes, but especially Madiyya is again going to spot them a big start on a track that may not suit the swoopers.
Selections:
(7) Chakado
(8) Mixxit
(5) Hiyaam Proud
(10) Madiyya
Suggested bet: Backing Chakado and Mixxit.
