Betsy’s Set: Derby Day

Race 1

Speed comes from (2) West Of Swindon, (5) Regal Award. (6) Single Choice shouldn’t be too far way with blinkers on first time, either.

Like (9) Panova, but was keener when Vinrock was still in the race injecting more early pressure. Chris Waller fillies have won two of the past four editions of this race – Fangirl and Aeliana – and whilst I am not comparing Panova to those two, she does have her share of talent. Coincidentally, both won the Reginald Allen the start prior, which is the same race Panova won last start. The pace was on for her in that win, which helped her get home from the tail, but it was a dominant victory and the time solid for the day. She should only be better suited up to a mile.

Regal Award still wants to over-race quite badly, but Lachlan Neindorf managed to get the best out of him at Caulfield last start, bolting in to win by 7L. He’s won his past two with senior rides on, he just got away on the apprentice a touch at Sandown two back. He should give a big sight on speed, but is well enough found in early markets for a horse that can do a bit wrong.

(4) Call Da Vinci will also relish a good tempo. He was good during the Queensland winter and I was taken with his first up run over 1400m at Caulfield. Mile suits, but will spot them a decent start – likely settles near-enough last in the run.

Thought Single Choice ran well without luck in the Tapp Craig. He can run a race with blinkers going on.

Working around the Guineas form.

Selections:
(9) Panova
(4) Call Da Vinci
(5) Regal Award
(6) Single Choice

Suggested bet: E/W (9) Panova

Race 2

Speed from (7) Lady Pankhurst, (4) Sheza Alibi & (2) Stardom. They should go at a genuine tempo.

(9) Teine Aulelei is on the quick back-up from having no luck at The Valley over 1200m last weekend. In fact, I think she’s still looking for a run! She drew gate twelve there but ended up buried away on the rail, she again draws out here but don’t think Melham will be going near the fence. She’s a really talented filly that should be suited to 1400m on the big track.

(6) Chatterley didn’t have the best of luck in the Reginald Allen in Sydney last time out. That’s the same race that Panova (r1) comes through and suspect the form will stand up. She’s drawn a touch awkwardly for a filly that could’ve taken up a prominent spot from a good draw, but she can win, for sure.

Sheza Alibi gets the blinkers on having run third at her first Victorian start behind two smart ones in Tentyris and Raging Force. Her second to Autumn Boy in the Tatts Stakes over the Queensland winter looks strong and from gate three she gets plenty of favours.

Selections:
(9) Teine Aulelei
(4) Sheza Alibi
(6) Chatterley
(5) Live

Suggested bet: 1×3 EW Teine Aulelei

Race 3

The Sydney Stakes looks the key form reference for this with (1) Libertad and (5) Caballus coming through the race.

Think Caballus has come back in super order. His final trial prior to resuming in the Sydney Stakes was outstanding, and he was well backed there fresh. Not sure what Tommy Berry was doing on him, he settled last and he didn’t really get urgent on the horse until the 225m mark, but he was huge late when asked to quicken. Drawn ideally in the middle of the line and he did run well at Flemington behind Estriella back in March 2024, so he has had exposure to the straight.

Libertad was held up at a key stage in that Sydney Stakes and went to the line locked together with Caballus – it was a great run. He has to give Caballus 2kg on that clash but the wide draw looks suitable and he comes through what I think is the right form line.

(4) Star Patrol just wanted to lay in down the straight last time out, which is a concern for a horse that has had setbacks. Trialled well enough between runs and his best is good enough.

(9) Geegees Mistruth was excellent at Caulfield over 1000m and the step to 1200m looks like it will suit here.

Selections:
(5) Caballus
(1) Libertad
(4) Star Patrol
(9) Geegees Mistruth

Suggested bet: Keen (5) Caballus

Race 4

Looks good speed. Suspect (9) Perfect Night leads but (2) Ethereum Girl, (1) Getta Good Feeling and (3) Freedom Flame all handy. Don’t think (7) Fashionable will be that far away, either.

Getta Good Feeling is largely bombproof here. She can put herself near the speed, as she did in the Thousand Guineas, where she was very strong on the line. Salty Pearl finished behind her there and she beat arguably a stronger field last Saturday. This filly is drawn ideally with Mark Zahra aboard – the only downside is you’ve got to take $1.60 to find out and with lightly-raced, emerging, staying fillies I can’t suggest that’s value…

Fashionable gets the blinkers on for the first time and she’s still on the up. She broke her maiden at Hawkesbury last start and only gave the impression she’d be better suited at 2000m than the 1800m of that race. The third horse has since gone to Queensland and won by the length of the straight. She maps to get a gun run here and looks a big danger.

1400 -> 2000m second up on an eight-day back-up for a horse that has had two career starts doesn’t exactly scream ‘Group 2 winner’, but this is a Group 2 in name only, and (5) Strictly Business has some hope at a big price. She reeled off strong late splits to win first up at Ballarat and I think she will make a handy stayer.

(4) Prestige Snitzel has a hope on the quick back up.

Selections:
(7) Fashionable
(1) Getta Good Feeling
(5) Strictly Business
(4) Prestige Snitzel

Suggested bet: Couldn’t take the shorts about the fave. Maybe tiny spec bets Fashionable/Strictly Business.

Race 5

They should go at a genuine clip here with (3) Media World, (4) Zou Sensation and (8) Regal Zeus the most likely to fight for the tip. (7) Holymanz won’t be far away.

Scratching of King Zephyr has completely changed this race.

(2) Payline has been racing well all spring, without much luck. Good in the Moir, back/wide/OK in the Manikato, hit the line strongly in the Gilgai and then all dressed up and nowhere to go in a slowly run Moonga last time out. Think he’s crying out for a genuinely run 1400m race on a big track, which he gets there.

Would’ve preferred to see (1) Steparty at a mile, but he is ready to win a race now. Got a mile back in a slowly run race behind Private Eye (same race Payline comes through) before reeling off the second-best last 400/200m splits of the meeting. Will spot them a big start but charge late.

Zou Sensation is going to give a big sight on speed. He has had a nice tick-over jump-out between runs and is drawn to find a spot on speed without working.

(11) St Lawrence isn’t the worst 50/1 pop I’ve seen. Trial was solid and has a super fresh record.

Selections:
(2) Payline
(1) Steparty
(11) St Lawrence
(4) Zou Sensation

Suggested bet: Payline and Steparty interest most.

Race 6

What a terrific edition of the Coolmore!

The form behind (1) Beiwacht and the rating out of his Golden Rose win is almost irresistible. He set a strong tempo there and just kept running, smashing the Rosehill 1400m track record in the process. The form out of the race has been good with Autumn Boy winning the Guineas and Tempted running second in the Everest! He’s been given five weeks to bounce back to his best after that Golden Rose and trialled nicely twice in between runs – suspect he will be cherry ripe for this assignment.

Loved how (10) Beadman moved in a jump-out down the straight last week, he took to it like a duck to water. He was totally luckless behind (6) Hidden Motive in Sydney last time out. That’s the formline that brought us Napoleonic, who was such an impressive winner at The Valley last week. Like the wider draw for him. Right in the game.

(3) Tentyris was as big as a house when condition gave out first up in the Danehill before producing a withering finish to nail Raging Force in the Gothic Stakes last start. He’s an elite sprinter who should be ready to peak now third-up. Clear danger.

Race doesn’t end there!

Selections:
(1) Beiwacht
(10) Beadman
(3) Tentyris
(5) Skyhook

Suggested bet: Backing Beiwacht. Think he should be favourite, and he isn’t.

Race 7

(1) Observer is clearly the horse to beat int the 2025 Derby. He should have won the Guineas, he toyed with his rivals in the Vase and now he has drawn gate four and should enjoy a perfect run in transit. The one query is whether he will get the 2500m, but he’s off to a good start being by Ghaiyyath and everything he’s done to date suggests he will stay – at least well enough to win a limited Derby.

I do think the Vase is the right form reference, and one horse that will get the trip is (6) Providence. He produced the best last 200m split of the entire meeting behind Observer there and making that looping run wasn’t ideal on the day. He’s drawn to stay off the fence, which I think is important, and if the favourite has a chink in his armour then this bloke will be there to strike.

(9) O’sheamus comes through the same race; he was held up at a crucial stage. Draws ideally here for the grand final and should get the trip.

Selections:
(1) Observer
(6) Providence
(9) O’sheamus
(16) Deal Done Fast

Betting suggestion: Not overly interested from a betting perspective. Maybe if Observer got to $2.50 + could back him, save Providence.

Race 8

Always like when (1) Pride Of Jenni is in a race as you know what you will get – a genuinely run affair.

Give (10) Idle Flyer a great each-way chance here. She comes out of two fast-run races, the latest being the Group 3 Angst which she won very well. The fact she can absorb high pressure will stand her in good stead with Pride Of Jenni in the race. She hasn’t yet reached the heights of Jenni or Fangirl but she’s a progressive mare who is drawn to advantage that can take the next step.

Like the near side blinker going on (6) Leica Lucy. She has had a perfect campaign leading towards this grand final. She ripped home the best last 400/200m splits of the meeting fresh here at Flemington before again working home well in the Group 1 Toorak. She just wanted to hang in a touch late there at Caulfield so the gear change should help. Think Flemington is her track and the strong tempo should give her a chance to steam into the contest late.

Pride Of Jenni’s best runs in recent times have been when fresh, which she was when leading all the way in the Feehan. Clearly her best is good enough to win a race like this but I just want to see her do it deeper into a campaign and on the quick back-up.

Think (5) Benagil is the best roughie in the race. She got home well first up at Caulfield, has jumped-out nicely between runs and should get a gun trail in the race.

(2) Fangirl would prefer this isn’t a high-pressure race, which Pride Of Jenni does often create. She was terrific in the Champions Mile at track and trip last spring but worth noting that Pride Of Jenni was ridden most conservatively there. She’s a grand old mare who has to be a leading contender, but she’s well enough found given she has chinks and probably isn’t in career best form.

Selections:
(10) Idle Flyer
(6) Leica Lucy
(5) Benagil
(2) Fangirl

Suggested bet: Backing Idle Flyer/Leica Lucy

Race 9

Tough way to round out the card.

This is the toughest assignment (12) Hearcomesthestar has faced to date, but she goes like a bomb fresh and I have loved her jump-outs (which are invariably good). Wider draw is ideal for her, she can camp just off speed; she’s capable of running a big race at odds.

(15) Photograph is still looking for a run in the Alinghi Stakes, a race won by Stretan Angel (Soft Love second). It’s easy to make a case she could’ve beaten those two rivals in what was her first outing for the Hayes boys, having formerly been with James Cummings. Seems a big price.

(3) She’s Bulletproof bounced back to form last time out at Caulfield. Her best is very good. (2) Arabian Summer is also a winning chance.

Tough end to the day!

Selections:
(12) Hearcomesthestar
(15) Photograph
(3) She’s Bulletproof
(14) Flying For Fun

Suggested bet: No bet