| Race | Number | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Farnesina | No luck last start and learns a lot from the race day experience. |
| 2 | 12 | Swag | Better placed up here and liked the recent trial. |
| 4 | 3 | Ichiban | Just finds a winnable race 3rd up and fitter. |
Turf Talk: Rail
- Rail is out 8.5m
- Weather is fine but with the rail out so far there is a big chance on pace might be the favoured place.
Stats that matter:
- Might not be the best known jockey, but Justin Huxtable is striking at 20% from his last 50 rides with a ROI +48.9%
- Desleigh Forster only has a small team but since the start of the season has trained 4 winners from 29 but with a ROI of 96.6%. (2 winners from last 4 saddled up were $13 and $18 winners respectively).
Race 1
(2) Farnesina is in the Munce yard, which is flying. Debut was a good effort but wasn’t brave enough to take a gap and should have finished closer. Can improve many lengths with that experience and have to respect. (6) Moon Jewel was a bit plain last prep but off the recent trials it is fair to say it is a better horse this time around. Gets 3kg claim to help. (8) Our Girl Scarlett is a similar story, plain in the initial prep but was a dominant winner at the most recent trial. Led there and just kept going. 9,10,12 look next best.
Selections:
(2) Farnesina
(8) Our Girl Scarlett
(6) Moon Jewel
(10) Shortcut
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) Farnesina
Race 2
(5) Armes is in the Gollan yard and ready to show best 3rd up. Had every chance but still good last time out. Thompson rides and want to respect. (2) Express Star missed the kick last start and the effort was better than it reads on paper. Feel there is ability there and only has to hold a spot early to be a big chance. (12) Swag has been gelded and I have to admit I liked the recent trial at the coast. Best part was through the line and will be well placed up here in the south east.
Selections:
(12) Swag
(2) Express Star
(5) Armes
(10) Odin’s Mount
Suggested Bet: Win (12) Swag
Race 3
Do not like the gate for (1) King Cobama, but I did like the debut. Should improve but needs a lot to go right from out there. (7) Cardonette is better than average and just nosed out on debut. Best L600-400-200m in that race and looks to have a future. Just needs a good Thompson ride from the bad gate. Saddle slipped with (9) On Point Pixie so forgive the last start effort.
Selections:
(7) Carbonette
(9) On Point Pixie
(1) King Cobama
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
Not really an (3) Ichiban man but I do think he could be the sharp improver off the two runs back. Gets to a suitable trip on a track he likes. Look for him late. (5) Wowzino has won 2 of his last 3 but they were maiden and CL1 races. Is tactically versatile so can ride to how the track is playing and that could be advantageous. (8) Mannerheim and (7) Tarex have ability, but I simply don’t trust them.
Selections:
(3) Ichiban
(5) Wowzino
(8) Mannerhiem
(7) Tarex
Suggested Bet: Win (3) Ichiban
Race 5
(3) Big Ticket Boy is lightly raced for a 7 year old. Is also a very consistent type. Was a good run fresh and can map perfectly from a good gate here. Just the 61kg is the query. (4) Hereditary was well held by the winner last start but his effort was still good. Winner the start before that and has a good apprentice on top. (11) Kaffir Lily has a bit of class but may well just need this run. Market a good guide to her fitness. (2) American Phireball was hopeless last start but liked the track/trip.
Selections:
(4) Hereditary
(5) Big Ticket Boy
(11) Kaffir Lily
(2) American Phireball
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (4) Hereditary at $16
Race 6
Well, (1) Caspernova come into this prep with big wraps and expectations. Has not won in 7 starts this time in and been $3.90 or shorter in five of those runs. Now placed on a track he loves (4:1:3:0), with a 3kg claim and decent gate. Should get every chance here. (12) One Beat No Beat always runs well. Wide gate but has speed and just needs to jump and be positive to be a hope. (10) Gelatin is a bit of a non-winner but I like the map for it. Can be on speed and give a sight. (11) Toro Strike can win but their barrier is the issue.
Selections:
(1) Caspernova
(12) One Beat No Beat
(10) Gelatin
(11) Toro Strike
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Caspernova, last chance.
Race 7
I don’t like any of them and I don’t like the race.
(3) Tonneofgrit has at least been good late in races and bumped into a couple of in form horses lately. Like the 3kg claim too. (10) Surfers Royale is advantaged being able to race on speed but he can be a weak animal late in races. (12) Casrock is fitter 3rd up and ready to show best but doesn’t have a great record here.
Yuck.
Selections:
(12) Casrock
(3) Tonneofgrit
(10) Surfers Royale
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(13) Vovo is a good one with a heap of upside. Worked to find the front fresh and went on to win by 8.5L. The time was good and 1350m around Doomben doesn’t look an issue off that run. (6) Livalittle was a big drifter when resuming but was very good. Will strip fitter from the run and in the right yard to keep improving. (7) Puff ’N’ Harry tried hard when the chips were down in the straight last start. Got the win but this is harder. (11) Easy Love is another lightly raced type who showed ability last prep. Trials have been good and might be a stronger horse this time in.
Selections:
(13) Vovo
(6) Livalittle
(11) Easy Love
(7) Puff ’N’ Harry
Suggested Bets: Could back (13) Vovo if $3.50+
