| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | (4) Tulong + (8) Wily Jack (QUINELLA) | Limited race – expecting these two to fight it out. Tulong leads, Wily Jack strong late. |
| R7 | (6) Chief Witness & (11) Heyoka (WIN BETS) | Both racing well and map nicely – happy to back both at fair odds. |
Turf Talk:
- Rail +10.5m – hot week and big chance this is firm and fast. May slightly favour those on speed.
Stats that matter:
- L. Gough’s smaller team is flying – 5 winners from last 16 runners. Promote the stable over the next week or so.
- Rory Hutchings has ridden 8 winners from his last 50 mounts with a ROI of +47%. Suited up here in the sunshine state.
Race by race overview
Race 1
No real speed engaged here and could be a muddling tempo and an ugly event.
(4) Tulong is limited but as good of a chance as any here. Looks like it could be the leader and ready to show best third run back from a break. Beaten a long way at the Sunny Coast last start but was runner-up and this looks a fair target.
(8) Wily Jack is one I feel can win races. Only had three runs to date and has produced some of the best late splits in all of them. Another beaten 4L last time out but this trip should suit. In a good stable and can win.
(7) Whata Sort has been okay late in races and might be next best in a race that drops away quickly.
Selections:
(8) Wily Jack
(4) Tulong
(7) Whata Sort
Suggested Bet: Quinella 4,8
Race 2
Even speed engaged and most should get their chance.
Lots of these are coming out of CL1 sort of races. (3) Dream Smart has been good in much better races than this. Won an open three-year-old race in town first up last prep. Only has to be anywhere close to that form to be the one to beat.
(4) Giliana has mixed form this prep but has won 2 of 4 starts. Draws the inside gate and Gollan will have her ready to go. (6) Cabaletto is lightly raced and was a dominant first-up winner for a flying stable. Will be on speed and can be competitive. (1) King Spirit and (2) Mercian might be next best.
Selections:
(3) Dream Smart
(4) Giliana
(6) Cabaletto
(2) Mercian
Suggested Bet: Win bet (3) Dream Smart
Race 3
Lots of first starters and many queries.
Ex-Godolphin (1) Sanjeer didn’t show much down south but the most recent trial at Doomben was pretty good – might simply be a better horse this time around. (2) Daitanna showed enough last prep and was in the market most runs. Nearly 200 days off but trials have been okay without being great.
Hard to win on debut but the most recent trial from (8) Wayburn was very good – led, showed a turn of foot and then pricked the ears. Can run well. (10) Ave Cantare and (11) Lady Milan both hail from good stables and have trialled like horses who will win races.
Selections:
(1) Sanjeer
(8) Wayburn
(11) Lady Moulin
(2) Daitanna
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
No natural leader – expect (9) Magic Island to take it up, especially with the light weight.
Loved the run from (1) Mr Buster first up – best L600-400-200m and looked good. Has a strong second-up record and Maloney rides again. Big weight but still well placed.
(3) Rock The Sunrise is the most consistent type and always runs well. Bumped into an in-form horse his last couple, rock-hard fit now and ready to show best. May sit a little closer from the good gate. (2) Laridae has won 2 of last 3 and must be respected. Dominant last-start winner but this is tougher. Unplaced in four runs here is the query.
Selections:
(1) Mr Buster
(3) Rock The Sunrise
(2) Laridae
(9) Magic Island
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Mr Buster if $2.50+
Race 5
(5) Pharoah’s Prophecy has won or placed in 6 of 8 and looks the likely leader. Was well placed last start but disappointed – should be forgiven but again short enough. (1) Contilda’s Love has produced the best L200m splits in both runs back. Gets a 3 kg claim and can go close third-up. (2) Fifth Force was well held last start but effort was solid and lands in the money again. Ready to show best third-up. Claims for 3, 4 and 11 but you can’t have them all.
Selections:
(1) Contilda’s Love
(5) Pharaoh’s Prophecy
(2) Fifth Force
(11) Promiscuous Girl
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,5
Race 6
Probably above-average tempo here with speed from 3, 5, 9 and 10 but nothing extreme.
(3) Town Crier looked home over this track/trip last time but was run down by (1) Mintaka Lad, who actually meets him better at the weights. From gate 1 he can box-seat and be held up for the last crack. (1) Mintaka Lad improved sharply for the new stable last start to get the cash. (2) Mishani Renegade has won 5 of 10 and gets Thompson – peaks fitness-wise and hard to knock. (4) Zelgaria would win this on his run two back but mixes form; trust issues. Like Pareto as a horse but he reported the track too firm last start – this might be worse.
Selections:
(3) Town Crier
(1) Mintaka Lad
(2) Mishani Renegade
(4) Zelgaria
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
Decent-sized field and still expecting just an average tempo.
Many mix their form and it’s not an easy race to assess. (11) Heyoka can’t be knocked on last start – up on speed, stole a couple of lengths on the corner and just run down late. Has won at this track/trip and sure to look the winner at some stage again.
(9) Seneschal has been most consistent but only 2 wins from 17 – one for exotics. (6) Chief Witness had been in great form until last start when back and wide; took off early and effort better than it reads. Poor gate again but might be over the odds. Respect any money for (1) Captain Fenkel (who has class) and (2) Lion Class (in form but drawn wide).
Selections:
(11) Heyoka
(6) Chief Witness
(9) Seneschal
(1) Captain Fenkel
Suggested Bet: Win bets (11) Heyoka and (6) Chief Witness
