| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | Eviction Notice (Best Bet) | Trial standout, showed early speed then relaxed before kicking away late. The one to beat. |
| R8 | Autumn Glow (Next Best) | Unbeaten star filly. Suited by Randwick mile, should handle wide barrier in high-pressure race. |
| R9 | Soul Of Spain (Best Value) | Flying stayer, sharp turn of foot, holds form. Maps to get gun run in the Metropolitan. |
| R3 | Oh Yes She Did (Best E/W) | Strong trial work late, well over the odds, each-way play in open maiden. |
Turf Talk
- Rail True Entire – with the dry track it should play extremely fair – in the straight, lanes 4+ will likely be key.
- Overall horses off speed should get every chance with any sort of tempo up front.
The Stats That Matter
- Over the past 90 days Adam Hyeronimus is striking at an impressive 25.8% with a positive POT of +51.8%.
- The Bjorn Baker stable is one to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP, striking at 22.7% with a positive POT of +9.6%. They are effective with runners second and third up.
Race 1 – Midway
Extremely open Midway this week. (6) Sunset Park gets a nice set up here coming off back-to-back impressive efforts, the move back to a spacious track suits. (8) Highborn Harry didn’t have much luck last start when wide, with the fair nature of the Randwick track with the rail true, he looks much better placed in this event. Stablemate (9) Agita maps well from barrier 5 coming off some solid recent efforts. (14) Webejamin can be running on late from the wide draw.
Selections:
(6) Sunset Park
(8) Highborn Harry
(9) Agita
(14) Webejamin
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 2 – Breeders’ Plate
Strong edition of the colts’ maiden off the Kensington and Warwick Farm heats. (2) Eviction Notice was the standout, showing early speed before relaxing mid-trial and kicking away late — he looks the one to beat. (4) I’m Ya Huckleberry produced a tradesmanlike trial and maps to control things up front. (7) Paradoxium draws well and looks a likely improver for the Baker yard. (6) Incognito got lost when hitting the front in his trial but will be suited taking a sit and running on.
Selections:
(2) Eviction Notice
(4) I’m Ya Huckleberry
(7) Paradoxium
(6) Incognito
Suggested Bet – Eviction Notice WIN
Race 3 – Gimcrack Stakes
Much more open look to the fillies’ maiden. (8) Oh Yes She Did impressed in her trial with strong late work and looks well over the odds. (10) Shiki rated well and maps to get the run of the race, though she may be under the odds. (12) Yvonne’s Joy had no luck in her trial but maps ideally here and can improve sharply at big odds. (1) Better Off Alone hit the line nicely and can swoop late, while (5) Home Invasion gets the advantage of barrier 1 and looks a likely improver.
Selections:
(8) Oh Yes She Did
(10) Shiki
(12) Yvonne’s Joy
(1) Better Off Alone
Suggested Bet – Oh Yes She Did E/W
Race 4 – Dulcify Stakes
Cracking edition of the Listed Dulcify Stakes. Keen to side with the in-form (1) Without Peer, the talented gelding has the grouse formlines around the likes of Autumn Boy, Sixties and Grand Prairie. He rises to 1600m and maps to get the run of the race behind this solid speed. The unbeaten duo (6) Ruination and (8) Azarax bring x-factor to this race, their untapped nature makes them tricky to oppose. The horse I want to be firmly against is (3) Flying Orchid, she had an ideal run last start and offered little. Yes, she draws better here but she looks gross unders at $6. (7) Attica rounds out the numbers, has been terrific in two runs back but does need luck from gate 14/14.
Selections:
(1) Without Peer
(6) Ruination
(8) Azarax
(7) Attica
Suggested Bet – Without Peer WIN
Race 5 – Melbourne Storm Mile
Capacity field of 20 lines up for this BM94. The last start win of (19) Idle Flyer was eye-catching, with more room at a crucial time I’d suggest she puts up a further 2L on her rivals, she maps ideally from the gate and looks well placed up to 1600m. Hard to beat. (13) Perfumist hasn’t quite got back to her form from the autumn, she improved sharply up to 1600m last start and can further improve here from gate 4. (15) Glad You Think So is in career best form, this is another step up but from the draw he’s hard to knock. (10) Time Quest is a hard horse to catch, any late market support must be respected.
Selections:
(19) Idle Flyer
(13) Perfumist
(15) Glad You Think So
(10) Time Quest
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 6 – Group 1 Flight Stakes
I can’t go past (1) Apocalyptic in this year’s G1 Flight Stakes. She was simply brilliant last start in the Tea Rose, her late sectionals creamed 1600m and she turns up here with the perfect draw. (4) Within The Law gets a smart barrier here after drawing wide in her past two starts, I expect her to improve sharply. (5) Queen Of Clubs was doing her best work late back to inside in the Tea Rose, she is another who screams ‘get me to 1600m’. (6) Karinska and (2) Artistic Venture both come from very similar runs last start, the smaller field and fair nature of the Randwick mile suit here.
Selections:
(1) Apocalyptic
(4) Within The Law
(5) Queen Of Clubs
(6) Karinska
(2) Artistic Venture
Suggested Bet – Apocalyptic WIN
Race 7 – Premiere Stakes
(2) Briasa was outstanding first up behind Joliestar in The Shorts, it took Joliestar to produce a career peak and year best sprinting figure to beat him. He can only improve off that with 3 weeks between runs and maps to find the 1-1. Hard to beat. (6) Private Harry – key rider change with arguably the best front running jockey in Tim Clark aboard. He looked to blow up fresh and I expect him to bounce back strongly here in the small field. (1) Jimmysstar hit the line well first up behind Tiger Shark, he’s been back to the trials and is suited in the smaller field. Outside of that, (7) Tiger Shark needs to take the leap to 1200m but is in career-best form to do so.
Selections:
(2) Briasa
(6) Private Harry
(1) Jimmysstar
(7) Tiger Shark
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 8 – Group 1 Epsom Handicap
The Group 1 Epsom over the famous Randwick Mile. The wide barrier for (4) Autumn Glow has been overstated, history tells us that wide barriers suit horses in these high-pressure 1600m events at Randwick. She is still unbeaten and still yet to reach her ceiling, with even luck, she’ll prove incredibly hard to beat. The danger is the tradesman (2) Pericles, he was impressive when winning first up for the Baker yard and can only improve off that run, 1600m is his go and from the draw, he looks the horse to run down. (5) Pier was no match for Autumn Glow last start in the Theo Marks, 3 weeks between runs and up to her pet 1600m trip reads well. Her gate looks a little sticky but she should find the back of Autumn Glow at some stage. This is the right race for (1) Ceolwulf. High-pressure Randwick mile where he can let rip down the middle of the track. He’s definitely in this. I’ll throw (10) Swiftfalcon in the mix, his best can win this but he is a hard horse to catch. Can Alysha Collett get the best out of him?
Selections:
(4) Autumn Glow
(2) Pericles
(5) Pier
(1) Ceolwulf
(10) Swiftfalcon
Suggested Bet – Autumn Glow WIN
Race 9 – Group 1 Metropolitan Stakes
Keen to side with Newcastle Cup winner (9) Soul Of Spain in this year’s G1 Metropolitan Stakes. This 5yo gelding couldn’t have been more impressive in his past two starts showing off a slick turn of speed, he keeps Lloyd aboard and should get the gun run. I’m not giving up on (18) Juja Kibo, he looked a sitting duck last start when exposed to a strong tempo throughout, ridden slightly colder here, he should bounce back well with 50kg. (7) Birdman ate up the fast tempo last start in the Kingston Town Stakes, he’ll need a peach of a ride here though to offset gate 18. The top weights, (1) Vauban and (2) Arapaho, round out the numbers from smart draws but do have to carry weight.
Selections:
(9) Soul Of Spain
(18) Juja Kibo
(7) Birdman
(1) Vauban
(2) Arapaho
Suggested Bet – Soul Of Spain WIN
Race 10 – Brisbane Broncos Sprint
Wide open end to the program, somewhat of a field leg for quaddie punters. I’ll lean the way of (5) Disneck here, he was cluttered up last start before running out of time. The big field, high-pressure up front suits him, add to that he’s 3/6 at the track and trip. I was desperate to find (9) Getafix but the inside draw and synthetic hoof filler going on are my concern. (10) Kerguelen is having a marvellous preparation, you can argue he should have won last start and looks suited back to 1200m. Outside of that, (3) Cloudland and (2) Fire Star have claims.
Selections:
(5) Disneck
(9) Getafix
(10) Kerguelen
(3) Cloudland
(2) Fire Star
Suggested Bet – No Bet
