Summary od Best Bets
Race 1 No.6 Taking Omaha (Best) – Tough on-speed run last week, will be suited in these conditions
Race 5 No.1 Autumn Frost – Strong effort last week, drops slightly in grade now
Race 8 No.5 Imposing Suspect (Value) – Boasts a super record at this track
Turf Talk:
- Expecting clear conditions race day and the meeting to start on a Good 4, with a small potential of an upgrade due to warm weather.
- The rail goes out from the last meeting and will be +3m from 800m–400m and True the remainder. Lanes 5–8 generally produce the majority of winners.
- There was a clear advantage to be on speed last meeting and it could be similar again in comparable conditions.
Stats:
- Justin Pickering brings two runners here and has had good success at this track previously, with a winning strike rate of 20% and a POT of +50.4%.
- Jess Tzaferis has found good recent form with 10 winners from her last 100 rides, returning a POT of +20.1%. She generally rides well here at Gawler with a +15.4% POT.
Race 1
(6) Taking Omaha was brave last week when leading at a fast tempo before being run over the top late. Despite the quick pace, he was tough enough to still place. The expected set-up today should suit, with a track that may favour on-speed runners and coming back 100m in trip.
(3) Major Rumble was strong late last start first-up into the prep, hitting the line well and looking one to follow. He has good talent, though the concern is whether the track will make it hard to make ground from back in the field.
(7) Capitalex had excuses last start after putting in a poor run and pulling up with cardiac arrhythmia. He can bounce back here.
(4) Santasia was solid last week when running into the placings. While this is a step up in level, she maps to be forward in a good position.
Selections:
(6) Taking Omaha
(3) Major Rumble
(7) Capitalex
(4) Santasia
Suggested bet: (6) Taking Omaha (Win)
Race 2
(4) Angel Torque has maintained good form this prep, winning two of her four runs including last start. This is a slight rise in grade, but her recent form is strong enough to be winning again if she can hold that level. From barrier two she should land in a good position.
(7) Zarkana was a solid winner first-up before a strong run last start, though she may not have been suited on a leaders’ track from her position. She can win if the track plays evenly.
(3) The Sprinkler is second-up here and generally takes a few runs to find his best form, so improvement is expected.
(1) Santastico needs to improve on his last start effort but looks the likely leader, which may suit under these conditions.
Selections:
(4) Angel Torque
(7) Zarkana
(3) The Sprinkler
(1) Santastico
Suggested bet: No bet – Zarkana best suited if the track plays evenly
Race 3
(1) Act Natural continues to be a tough horse for punters, having now placed in 12 career starts including three consecutive seconds. While he looks likely to get a soft lead, there remains a query on how genuine he is, making the short odds hard to take.
(4) Discreetly Blue resumes off the back of a strong trial win at Murray Bridge. He may be better suited over further later in the prep but maps well here and could surprise.
(11) Tiddy Widdy has improved at her last two starts to finish in the placings and maps to be forward with a light weight.
(7) Jewels Captain has finished in the placings in both runs this prep and while this looks harder, he does set up to be back in the run and finishing fast. If the track is even and runners over do it up on speed it could set him up for a fast finish.
Selections:
(4) Discreetly Blue
(1) Act Natural
(11) Tiddy Widdy
(7) Jewels Captain
Suggested bet: No bet – Act Natural could win if genuine but not at the price
Race 4
(3) Harmonic Dancer was disappointing last start when well supported after dropping in grade. His prior form was in stronger races than this and if he can return to that level he should be hard to beat.
(4) Arabella Star comes across from Victoria having won his maiden two starts back and then running well in a stronger race last start. Those form lines rate well here.
(7) Si Senora was strong through the line last start and looks suited rising an extra 100m, though likely needs an even track.
(2) Beachbarbeckons was well supported on debut to win before heading to the paddock. He resumes here and can feature with a good run on speed.
Selections:
(3) Harmonic Dancer
(4) Arabella Star
(7) Si Senora
(2) Beachbarbeckons
Suggested bet: No bet – Harmonic Dancer can win at his best but hard to trust after last run
Race 5
(1) Autumn Frost comes through the same race last week as Taking Omaha. Like that runner, he stuck on well after running a fast closing sectional from a wide position. This looks a slight drop in grade and if he can get to the lead again he should be well suited.
(9) Tripod Terror drops in grade and gets in light after an apprentice claim, which could see him improve.
(4) Outpost won last start in similar grade and maps for a favourable run from barrier one.
Veteran (7) Tupoleu resumes today. He usually improves with racing but has multiple wins at this track and is likely to be prominent early.
Selections:
(1) Autumn Frost
(9) Tripod Terror
(4) Outpost
(7) Tupoleu
Suggested bet: (1) Autumn Frost (Win)
Race 6
(1) Flaming Navy won here last start and again looks to get an ideal run up on speed. With the key scratching of Cielao this morning, it likely means Flaming Navy should get to the front easily and be the one to catch. He won over more ground last start so should have no issues at this trip.
(7) There Goes My Hero looks suited rising in distance based on his last start finish and benefits from a 3kg claim. He has won at this track/distance previously
(3) Headphones was strong late last start and maps well from a low barrier, dropping back in grade looks likely to suit.
(4) Conni Island is one of the runners that looks likely to find a good position up on speed with the leader. He gets some weight off his back with an apprentice claim which may set him up well for a good run if the track favours on speed types.
Selections:
(1) Flaming Navy
(7) There Goes My Hero
(3) Headphones
(4) Conni Island
Suggested bet: No bet in this race now having lost Cielao to scratchings
Race 7
(1) Global Turn was slightly unlucky last start at Morphettville, being held up briefly before finishing strongly for a close second. She is a strong chance again in this grade but needs a fair track.
(3) Empire Grace steps up in grade after solid runs at her home track and draws to be positive under Jake Toeroek.
(8) Press Express looks suited dropping back to 1200m, the distance of both her career wins.
(4) Chillcuz drops in grade and is likely to land in a prominent on-speed position.
Selections:
(1) Global Turn
(3) Empire Grace
(8) Press Express
(4) Chillcuz
Suggested bet: No bet – stronger if track plays evenly
Race 8
(5) Imposing Suspect appeals at odds with a strong record at this track and a solid run in The Bordertown Cup. This is a similar level and he can improve back on a surface he enjoys.
(8) Wild Winner has not missed the placings this prep and looked to be doing her best work late last start. A rise in trip suits.
(6) Dual Fuel was part of the tight finish in The Bordertown Cup and should appreciate further ground.
(4) Kirkliston Blu backs up after a win last week. He drops in grade but the drop in distance is the main query.
Selections:
(5) Imposing Suspect
(8) Wild Winner
(6) Dual Fuel
(4) Kirkliston Blu
Suggested bet: (5) Imposing Suspect (Each-way)
Race 9
(11) Mrs Penny Cracker finished strongly here last start when second behind the in-form Cielao. A rise in distance and a light weight after the claim both help.
(5) Chur Nibble drops slightly in grade after finishing less than a length from the winner last week. A leaders’ bias would suit him.
(3) Collated won at this track and distance before striking stronger races with little luck. The drop back in grade suits.
(10) Morlaix rises in grade but should be much better suited stepping up to 1700m.
Selections:
(11) Mrs Penny Cracker
(5) Chur Nibble
(3) Collated
(10) Morlaix
Suggested bet: No bet – would back Chur Nibble late if leaders are favoured
