Summary of Best Bets:
Not an easy day and a few two bet races for me.
Best bet: Race 7 No.10 Miss Joelene – Flying and this is the perfect set up for her.
Roughie: Race 6 No.1 King Of Pop – At double figures and off a gelding prep I have to have something on.
Turf Talk:
- Rail True
- The new track is really starting to race well and the last few meetings you could win from anywhere.
- 1100m starting point is a very small run to the first corner. Also a bonus to draw well over the 1200m.
- Feel these big fields they will race tighter than most punters are used to over the Magic Millions. Don’t expect them to come five off the fence like the wet years in the past.
Stats that matter:
- Tim Clark has ridden 11 of his last 50 to victory at an ROI of +76%
- C.Maher is about the best stable in the land but at the time of typing, just 3 winners from last 50 and ROI of -79.5%.
- Kris Lees has a ROI of +91% from his last 50 runners. 10 winners and 13 placings from them.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Tough race to start with five of the six runners on debut.
I always like to go with the raced brigade and (1) Itchintogo got the cash for us as a best bet last start. In the Gollan stable, will be right up on speed and 1100m is the perfect trip for him. Clearly the one to beat as the odds suggest.
(2) Baciami gets to debut on the home track and most recent trial was very good. Felt he responded well when some pressure came late there. Well bred type who should be in the finish here.
I’d say the trial of (3) Dragon Magic was a pass mark but hard to get excited about.
(5) Wootton You Know might be next best away from the top 2 with Williams on but a disappointing race to kick off an excellent day of racing.
Selections:
(1) Itchintogo
(2) Baciami
(5) Wootton You Know
(3) Dragon Magic
Suggested Bet: Trifecta 1 / 2,5 /2,5
Race 2:
Good speed engaged from (1) Shiki, (2) By Choice, (3) Scartoon and (7) Inhabit. Not sure who pushes the button and how hard the others make them work but it should be a fair tempo.
Had to like what (2) By Choice did on debut and you’d think can improve off the race day experience. Waterhouse/Bott with a 2 year old peaking at the right time, deja vu. I liked the run of the horse it beat last start, (6) Tigroni. It had to come from further back and that didn’t suit in the slow run race. With more tempo here she can be strong late and a good ride for Zac Lloyd.
(1) Shiki brings the form around the Magic Millions fave and she has great speed if they want to use it. Great front running rider in Tim Clark on top and the only query is how strong is she the last 50m? Genuine query, that is for me.
(3) Scartoon was a nice winner after leading at the Sunny Coast and has been freshened since. Nice filly with good upside and feel the $10 mark is about right for her.
Thought the best roughie for exotics was (8) Iransofar who was very good in ‘The Debut’ race here. Looks to have good ability as the trials had been good also. She will need some luck early from the horrible gate.
Selections:
(6) Tigroni
(2) By Choice
(3) Scartoon
(1) Shiki
(8) Iransofar
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
Big field and luck will play a huge part.
(10) Spanish Treasure is at the top of the market and he’s shown good ability for Gollan. Bumped into Alpha Sofie a couple of times in initial prep and then first-up this time he took on Grafterburners and Sylph. Only beaten 2.9L there, fitter and nice drop in grade the key.
(16) Snitzel Miss has been placed in 4 of 6 and has the Waller/McDonald combo. Beaten a lip two back and then no luck on the corner last time out as fave. Still expected a little more late. Good gate is a big help.
Not sure how Snitzel Miss is $4 and (2) Agraffe Rocket is $14. This horse was on debut and really good through the line. Can improve lengths off that effort, gets Nash to ride and meets the filly 3kg better off.
(12) Crash The Party has been good all prep and timed for this on the home track. Is a get-back type so might need luck. Has shown a turn of foot and looks way better than Maiden grade. Williams is a key booking to help the cause.
Selections:
(2) Agraffe Rocket
(10) Spanish Treasure
(16) Snitzel Miss
(12) Crash The Party
Suggested Bet: Trifecta 2,10,16 // 2,10,11,12,16 // 2,10,11,12,16
Race 4:
Very little speed on paper here and genuine issue for my on topper.
I’ve been counting the days until (8) Scripted was to run again. She was 2/2 in her initial prep, had some issues and a long break. She returned with an incredible run and best L400m of the entire meeting. Victim of circumstances last start and was wide the trip near last. Had every right to stop but savaged the line with best L200m of the race. The gate is no good for her but she is a beauty.
(11) Southern Heiress is the one to beat but is more than short enough. Loved the fresh run, fitter for that and Jmac takes the ride. Lightly raced, well bred and just has to get the 1300m.
(4) Yes Lulu is underrated and has run well at decent odds many times. Big win back in November was excellent and the last start effort was good, spotting the winner 2.5kg. Never underestimate this stable.
The one who is suited by the slow tempo is (6) Mamushka. Don’t think she has the class of the others but can sit on speed and win, as she did fresh. Lloyd rides and can run a cheeky race here.
(3) Useapin is fitter for the fresh effort, which was OK, and should go in exotics as $18 looks overs.
Selections:
(8) Scripted
(6) Mamushka
(11) Southern Heiress
(4) Yes Lulu
(3) Useapin
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (8) Scripted
Race 5:
Not a bad starting point but with 18 running you may need some luck or a very good ride.
(2) Gorbachev is like much humans, improves when he come to Qld. Has won three on the bounce here and now gets Jmac to ride. Maps right on speed from the gate, been freshened and is good enough.
Have to think (1) Axius has more wins in store and this CL4 has just come at the perfect time. In the best stable and ridden by Nash who really suits the horse. Looks to be a horse that loves to be widest on track and from the gate should get clear air in the straight.
(4) Yoshinobu beat Axius easily fresh last prep and then hardly beat a horse home the next two runs. Recent trial was good but I have no idea what to make of him or what he will do here.
Gollan has (5) Now Is The Hour airborne. Has won 3/5 since joining the stable and hasn’t missed a place for them. Thought it was just a plain race last start but he won by 4L and has speed to overcome the wide gate. He will look the winner, can he hold them off the last 50m? Might be heart in the mouth stuff.
The South Aussie (12) Cash is a ripper. Four starts for two wins and two runners up cheques so far. Attacked the line fresh but just ran out of time. Then a trial in Sydney on the way here which was also good. Maps well and look for him to be flashing late.
(9) Stardeel is impossible to work out. Does look better with the cut out of the ground. Baker and King, should map OK and respect any money on the day.
A couple of locals with a chance. (13) Joppa Lane was very good fresh when just died on the run. Better for that but would probably rather 1200m. (14) Abender has a horrible gate but is one who could win at a huge price if the splits come at the right time. Has a turn of foot and just needs luck.
Heck of a race this one. Not much between the #1 and #12 for me but some good chances at big odds too.
Selections:
(1) Axius
(12) Cash
(2) Gorbachev
(5) Now Is The Hour
Suggested Bet: Split win bets (1) Axius + (12) Cash (if $5+ available them both)
Race 6:
Snowden with a huge hand here – (8) Miss Freelove and (3) Johnny. If Miss Freelove brings her best she will beat them. Has looked the winner and not gone on with it in races but has also put them away and looked great. Recent trial was good and assuming they use gate 4 to sit midfield with cover and not spend a penny.
Still learning about (3) Johnny. Reckon there is good ability but three of his four runs have been on heavy ground. Ridden out in recent trial but it was OK. My gut says he runs very well but if the track is firm, how’s he handle it?
(4) Northlander is 2/2 and impossible to knock. Can take a sit on leaders and has a turn of foot that will win more races. Good jock and should get every chance.
(1) King Of Pop was poor last prep but has more ability than most of these on his day. There were big raps on him and he returns with a stack of gear changes, most importantly he has been gelded. First trial was great, latest just plain. He could blow these away and not surprise in the least.
Not sure how (2) Torque To Be Sure is still a maiden but could run into placings late.
Still learning about (6) Da Snoop Dog.
Selections:
(1) King Of Pop
(8) Miss Freelove
(3) Johnny
(2) Torque To Be Sure
(4) Northlander
Suggested Bet: Win (1) King Of Pop and saver (8) Miss Freelove
Race 7:
Real lack of speed here and that’s the main threat to the result.
You couldn’t find a race to suit a horse better than (10) Miss Joelene here. Listed winner over 1500m in a dominant display two runs back. She savaged the line and clearly the best L400 and 200m of the race at Listed level last start. She is 7 rating points higher than anything else in this race and WFA is ideal for her. Won this race last year (run at Sunny Coast). Muddling speed or poor timed ride are the main dangers.
No idea what to make of (3) Wymark. Not a bad run two back behind a good one but was well beaten (5.5L). Then in the market and bolted in 3rd up at this trip. Off that run you have to give a live chance.
Not sure (6) Sly Boots has the class to win here but real sense of timing about the preparation. More than a pass mark fresh over 1400m, then to 1600m and a dominant win. Watch Waterhouse with these types on the way up.
I’ve always been a big fan of (13) Snitzanova and she was terrific at big odds two back behind Miss Joelene. Was wide last start but too bad to be true. You have to be forgiving and this is the stable that could turn it around.
(12) You Wahng is Group level at her best but has been getting lapped. This is easier and fitter now to 1800m.
Selections:
(10) Miss Joelene
(3) Wymark
(6) Sly Boots
(13) Snitzanova
Suggested Bet: Win (10) Miss Joelene and/or Quinella 3-6-10
Race 8:
Tricky starting point and not a long run to the first corner, gates are important. Speed looks to be Golden Boom and Prince Of Boom who are leaders and have no option but to go handlebars down to try and cross. Chinqui and Storm The Ramparts have speed underneath and could trap those horses wide.
(2) Golden Boom went around and raced well in high quality races over the spring. Given a let up after that, was wide the trip last start and very brave. Gollan doesn’t miss a trick, he will have this horse spot on and look for them to go forward.
WFA suits (1) Payline as the highest rated horse and the form in Melbourne was better than these. Back to 1100m is not ideal but the speed up front is. I was disappointed at the last start effort after the race. Looked the winner on the corner and the last 100m was soft. Now I feel they used it as a barrier trial for this and may have needed that run after 7 weeks between runs. It is that or he needs a break? I will back them in for it to be the former.
Talking of barrier trials, that’s all it was for (6) Storm The Ramparts fresh. Also, wide the trip on that occasion. Pride is a genius and blinkers go back on here. Gets the gun run and every possible chance here.
Love the run (8) Chinqui gets, likely 3rd the fence. Love the stable (as good as any). Can just mix it up a bit and better at 1000m. Watch the market.
I don’t like taking on Maher horses usually. (7) Spywire isn’t one of mine but you can forgive the last start (Listed level) set to peak here and suitable trip. Wide gate not ideal.
Selections:
(1) Payline
(2) Golden Boom
(6) Storm The Ramparts
(7) Spywire
Suggested Bets: Win bet (1) Payline but want $3.50+ with his racing pattern.
Race 9:
I’m not big on ‘slot’ races but this is intriguing. The barrier draw has made it even more interesting and no result would really surprise me. Should be a big punting affair.
Speed will come from the outside gate with (9) Swordplay wanting to cross them all and find the fence. (5) Ice Kool from gate 9 will try and hold it out. Both those horses have good ability and a stack of upside, if they find the front easy they will take some catching.
Always love (2) Grafterburners and he is 3/3 to start this prep. Still don’t think he’s been at his very best and still just too classy. McDonald takes over the steering and gate 2 made him a big winner out of the barrier draw.
(7) Akaysha from gate 1 and (11) Sylph from gate 3 are the others favoured. They aren’t the fastest horses early but can now push up and get far better spots than if they drew wide. Akaysha was terrific in Listed and Group company over the spring and that’s great form for this. Sylph has been great since racing in Qld. Has been settling and attacking the line late without winning. Would be a heck of a race to break maiden status. $17 seems very generous.
(6) Savvy Hallie is the class and interesting bringing her in first-up. She is already a G2 winner and Berry is riding as well as anyone in the country. Would have liked a bit more out of the 2nd trial but class can get her home with even luck in running.
Selections:
(6) Savvy Hallie
(2) Grafterburners
(11) Sylph
(7) Akaysha
Suggested Bets: Small win bet (6) Savvy Hallie
Race 10:
Very good race to finish, good luck if alive in the quaddie.
Let’s start with the toppy (1) Yellow Brick as he is the class horse. He hasn’t reached the level I thought he would even though he has been G1 placed. I feel he has trialled as well as ever leading into this prep, has a good fresh record (10:3:3:1) and James McDonald rides. The query, can he spot them all 7kg and win?
I’ve thought (5) Boomtown Boss was one of the more exciting horses we have in Qld and a month ago thought he’d be a moral here. I have to admit, even though he was 3rd in The Gateway last start it was disappointing. Looked the perfect race that Gollan had planned out 6 months ago but he showed no turn of foot. The gate is horrible but C.Williams taking over is a huge plus. I was praying blinkers would go on as his full sister needed them, but not to be.
(3) Ready To Schipp is in career best form, this is her home track and she looks to get it nice up on speed. Will look the winner at some stage but don’t think she is well under these conditions.
(6) Hatchet is more than up to these on his day and feel the 8.5kg drop from last start is a big help.
Gollan has another couple of chances away from Boomtown Boss. (8) John Rambo is one of the great ‘gonna’ horses we have. Always a flashing light but rarely runs to market expectations. He could win this and it wouldn’t shock in the slightest. (9) Bossed Up is super consistent (15:5:2:4) has Thompson on and 52kg. 1300m is the query but strong late last start.
Selections:
(5) Boomtown Boss
(1) Yellow Brick
(3) Ready To Schipp
(8) John Rambo
(9) Bossed Up
Suggested Bets: Win (5) Boomtown Boss, saver (1) Yellow Brick
