| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | Darknconfidential (Bet) | Good winner last time; solid through the line and ready for 1800m |
| R3 | Ruled By Thieves (Best E/W) | Talented but hard to catch; senior rider may be the key at value. |
| R4 | Sir Now (Best Bet) | Won 4 straight last prep; resumes down in grade and maps well. |
| R6 | Pelevecchio (Next Best) | Class runner who wanted further first-up; to 1600m suits 2nd-up. |
| R9 | Madam Jeanette (Best Value E/W) | Better draw and light weight; can control and be hard to catch. |
Turf Talk
- The rail position on the course proper moves back to the True for the first time since July.
- Clear conditions expected on race day; likely a Good 4 by Race 1.
- Even playing track anticipated — runners can win from a variety of positions in run.
The Stats That Matter
- Jake Toeroek is flying this season: 19.1% strike rate and +28.6% ROI.
- Shane & Cassie Oxlade have two runners here; at Morphettville they strike at 23.4% with +34.1% POT.
Race 1
Certainly a competitive race kicking off the meeting with a good bunch of 3YOs here. I was surprised to see (1) KALMANA didn’t open as the race favourite; he has the right winning form through his most recent efforts. The query may be rising to 1600m, but he maps well and can control with a soft lead. Stablemate (2) OAKLEY MISS has run two close seconds in recent efforts; the rise in trip should help. (5) SASSY SOPHIE defeated (2) OAKLEY MISS last time and they hit the line similarly, so she deserves a comparable chance. (3) SAFE BET has run third in his last three in similar races and looks close.
Selections:
(1) Kalmana
(2) Oakley Miss
(5) Sassy Sophie
(3) Safe Bet
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 2
(2) DARKNCONFIDENTIAL broke through for a win in a very handy field last time and has strong form lines this prep. He was solid through the line last start, so rising to 1800m now should suit. (4) SIR ROCKFORD is also a last-start winner at Seymour; he crosses the border to rise in grade, but the drop back in trip is a query. (1) KOMACHI is on the quick back-up after finding the line well; the rise in trip suits. (6) TALISAY likely better on drier ground here and maps for a softer run from the inside barrier.
Selections:
(2) Darknconfidential
(4) Sir Rockford
(1) Komachi
(6) Talisay
Suggested Bet – Darknconfidential WIN
Race 3
(8) RULED BY THIEVES has been tough to catch for punters of late — twice runner-up in his last three — but he keeps hitting the line despite over-racing. A switch to an in-form senior rider could be the key. (4) HOT STATEMENT has been off the scene almost 12 months but trialled well; the stable’s patience reflects his talent. (2) BUCKINGHAM PALACE resumed with a second; needs luck from a wide barrier. (12) KICK YOUR KNEES UP maps to lead from the inside and could give a sight at odds.
Selections:
(8) Ruled By Thieves
(4) Hot Statement
(2) Buckingham Palace
(12) Kick Your Knees Up
Suggested Bet – Ruled By Thieves E/W
Race 4
This looks the race of the day. (1) SIR NOW is a proven winner, having strung four in a row last prep before placing at Listed level. He resumes down in grade and maps well from the inside. He does carry weight versus rivals, but at the trip it’s not a big concern. (7) SUPER ALANA jumped in grade last start and found them a bit sharp; much better suited back to benchmark grade and has been consistent. (4) TRAPEZE WARRIOR won well first-up but failed last time; forgive at Flemington and can bounce back. (8) ISLEHAM VILLAGE is a fascinating watch for Yulong, undefeated first-up (2/2) and capable fresh.
Selections:
(1) Sir Now
(7) Super Alana
(4) Trapeze Warrior
(8) Isleham Village
Suggested Bet – Sir Now WIN
Race 5
(1) HYPERNOVA has been consistent and is well suited on drier ground and the big open track; expect him strong through the line. (7) TOTTORI resumes — an impressive debut winner — but he’s been off the scene for over a year, which is the query. (3) FALAISE likely improves deeper into the prep when rising in trip but can be running on here. (4) LOVIN’ LAUGHS looks the likely leader; if the pattern suits, he can control and take catching.
Selections:
(1) Hypernova
(7) Tottori
(3) Falaise
(4) Lovin’ Laughs
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 6
(2) PELEVECCHIO looks the class runner given the strong races she contested last prep. Well found first-up but clearly wanted further; out to 1600m suits and class can prevail. (5) GRINZINGER HALO broke through on Balaklava Cup Day over 1600m; wide draw may force work. (1) BOOM BANG won two back; better suited down in grade/trip today. (3) TOWER OF TUSCANY does his best work at 1600m and maps softly from the inside.
Selections:
(2) Pelevecchio
(5) Grinzinger Halo
(1) Boom Bang
(3) Tower Of Tuscany
Suggested Bet – Pelevecchio WIN
Race 7
(5) SUPER LAD has won two straight, latest at 1600m; draws for a soft run and may get the gun sit. (3) SACHEM third-up now and boasts an excellent track/trip record (3:2-0-1). (7) SWYCHO is light at the weights and can push forward; may take catching if she controls the tempo. Expect to see (4) LOMAX hit the line strongly late, he will likely get back in the field from a wide barrier so may need luck to get a run late.
Selections:
(5) Super Lad
(3) Sachem
(7) Swycho
(4) Lomax
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 8
(5) PACIFIC JEWEL ran well first-up despite limited market support; fitter now and better drawn today, she can improve. Victorian visitor (4) IMMINANCE has won two of her last three; wide barrier a small risk. (9) GLOBAL TURN is a likely improver second-up and is well in at the weights after the claim. (8) CIELAO resumes for her second prep off a win; maps to be prominent on speed.
Selections:
(5) Pacific Jewel
(4) Imminance
(9) Global Turn
(8) Cielao
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 9
(16) MADAM JEANETTE rated well winning two back over Streetcar Fury, then was wide/off track last time. Better draw and light weight here — if she leads, she could be hard to catch. (8) SHADOW EAGLE had everything in his favour last start; inside draw may make the map tricky. (14) UP THE DEN trialled well and is lightly weighted; on-speed profile appeals. (1) FREE BEER was impressive resuming, producing some of the day’s fastest late splits against several he meets again.
Selections:
(16) Madam Jeanette
(8) Shadow Eagle
(14) Up The Den
(1) Free Beer
Suggested Bet – Madam Jeanette E/W
